The longest shots in the Belmont Stakes have the best stamina metrics.
Restoring Hope has 1.72 Dosage Index and 318 Tomlinson figure—the best blend of these metrics in the field, according to the TCI Belmont Stakes preview video on DRF TV. Rounding out the top five are Free Drop Billy, Bravazo, Hofburg, and Justify.
The top two by those stamina indicators are 30/1 on the morning line. They both threw among the weakest TFUS speed figures last out, but were in the mix with all the rest two back—except Justify, whose every fig tops the field. I can see them improving on their best to contend here.
TCI made a case against Curlin progeny in the Belmont and Vino Rosso here, who seems the next wise guy horse now that everyone's on Hofburg, who otherwise deserves the attention.
Bravazo and Tenfold have the best figs other than Justify, earned last out chasing that one in the Preakness. I agree with the DRF Race of the Day video; that was the day to have them. Others are fresher and seem more likely to improve on their top figs. They'll take money here nevertheless.
Noble Indy is worth a look at 30/1 with Pletcher at sixth by these stamina metrics.
Matching Bravazo with most starts, Blended Citizen eventually earned the third best fig not logged by the favorite last time, on this very track winning the Peter Pan. Hot timing between races for O'Neill. I'd put him on deeper tickets but he lacks a distance story and I see more upside in others.
Anything can happen, but Gronkowski can beat me with anything lower than 50/1.
I'm under no illusions they'll be sparkling overlays, but I could get interested in keying
and
with the favorites, kind of a long/short play.
Win:
,
Exacta:
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&
/
,
Trifecta:
,
/
,
/
,
Or
+
+
x 1
+
+
x 2
+
+
x 3
+
+
x 4
Or box them in the superfecta, adding
and
at the bottom end.
