final fractions Peter Pan

[sbcaris]

The following are the final fractions for the Peter Pan:

Horse-----------------6 furlong time---------------9 furlong time ---final 3/8

Unified----------------1:10 1/5--------------------1:47----------------36 4/5

Governor Malibu-----1:11 2/5--------------------1:47 1/5------------35 4/5

Wild About Deb------1:11 2/5--------------------1:47 3/5------------36 1/5

Adventist------------1:10 4/5---------------------1:47 4/5------------37 FLAT

Note: whenever a horse is beaten by 3 1/2 to 3 3/4 lengths I round that off to 4 lengths. If a horse is beaten by 3 1/4 lengths I round it down to 3 lengths.

In my opinion it is not necessary to be accurate to one hundredth of a second or to use Trakus to determine within a fraction of a second what the actual time for each horse actually is because each of the above horses could go in and win the Belmont based on their Peter Pan effort along with several others from the Derby and some possibly from the Preakness. What really matters is who is going to come up in the best condition in the weeks leading up to the Belmont. Who is going to workout sensationally in the week before the Belmont? Who will have the tactical speed necessary to be a threat in the Belmont? Will Nyquist still be running for the Triple Crown by then? I sure hope he does.

[f2tornado]

Those are some impressive final fractions. Governor closed two seconds faster than Nyquist in Florida. He's also double Buckpasser in the tail female line. Even through Easy Goer who won the Belmont. Could provide some Belmont tote magic like Tonalist.

[señorclipclop]

The track was obviously lightning fast, how do you adjust it to equalize it for the other runners coming in for the Belmont Stakes? It looks about two seconds fast to me, there is no way Adventist improved 3+ seconds.

[sbcaris]

Senorclipclop: I do not make adjustments for final fraction times which have been an excellent indicator for all three legs of the Triple Crown thru history. However, final fractions are just one of a group of indicators that I use on the Belmont stakes. For example: Fresh horses get an edge. So even though the track was lightning fast for the Peter Pan those horses that come out of it are at an advantage in the Belmont stakes simply because they did not run in all three legs of the Triple Crown. Horses with Buckpasser in the X have an advantage in the Belmont as well as horses that carry the Raise A Native sire line. Horses that have tactical speed are at an advantage in the Belmont stakes as well as horses that carry strong conduit mares.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by señorclipclop

The track was obviously lightning fast, how do you adjust it to equalize it for the other runners coming in for the Belmont Stakes? It looks about two seconds fast to me, there is no way Adventist improved 3+ seconds.

The track was fast but keep in mind Adventist was running in wet oatmeal in the Wood. AQU was literally 3 plus seconds slower if you believe the Beyer figures. So, I agree Adventist didn't improve by 15 lengths but that also suggests the track wasn't necessarily drag strip either. A couple of the Peter Pan horses could be quite dangerous in the Belmont.

[pandy]

Gov. Malibu certainly looked like a horse that would handle the mile and a half, he was moving very well late.

[Longshot]

Any thought given to the fact that this was a one turn race and fractions for one turn races are usually faster than two turn races run earlier this year at 9F.

[sbcaris]

Certainly, thought should be a prerequisite to a final decision. It would be nice to know if the horse you are considering has already shown the ability to run well in a two turn 9 furlong race. Final Fractions are not a be-all end-all factor but it is certainly one of the strongest factors. What about the track condition? That may be the biggest factor in this Preakness as a lot of rain is being predicted.