Hence

[Richie]

Hence wont be near 7-1 and there ain't any smart money on tote derby day, just the opposite

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Richie

Hence wont be near 7-1 and there ain't any smart money on tote derby day, just the opposite

I love dumb money!!!! YES YES YES YES


I think Hence goes off between 12-1 and 17-1

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blo...the_Hence_123#


The buzz is going to build with this horse we arent going to gets anywhere close to the odds we would hope for

Thanks for sharing bro !

Do you happen to know how Asmussen does history wise with horse coming off a six week layoff ?

Just curious ?

[Longshot]

Do you happen to know how Asmussen does history wise with horse coming off a six week layoff ?

Just curious ?[/QUOTE]

Hence will be off 41 days since his last race. According to my database from 9657 races with 30 to 89 days since their last race Asmussen Wins 21% and is in the money 52%.

[Parson]

Well any hope of value disappeared to day. The front page of the sports section in Louisville Courier Journal has declared him the 'wiseguy' horse this year.


http://www.courier-journal.com/story...rse/100841518/

[PowerUpPaynter]

Originally Posted by Parson

Well any hope of value disappeared to day. The front page of the sports section in Louisville Courier Journal has declared him the 'wiseguy' horse this year.


http://www.courier-journal.com/story...rse/100841518/

wise guy or not still gotta figure 12-1 at an absolute minimum... right?

[sbcaris]

One negative regarding Hence. In the last 30 years only 1 Derby winner carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Super Saver in sloppy going). Only 3 place finishers carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and only 1 show horse carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Dortmund).

[AirNate012]

Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter

wise guy or not still gotta figure 12-1 at an absolute minimum... right?

Think about who will be ahead of him in odds:

-Classic Empire
-Always Dreaming
-Irish War Cry
-McCracken
-Gunnevera


I will be shocked if he's lower than 15/1. I'm guessing around 20/1 at post.

[Robert Fischer]

Hence was one horse who I was watching workouts for. I want to see if he jumps off the screen as an obvious superstar athlete.

I watched his work 4/25/17, and he did not jump off the screen for me. Asmussen is not really a Baffert type w/ workouts, and Hence's was probably a little on the fast side for Asmussen. Yet, for whatever reason, I didn't see anything that would make me know he's an amazing Grade 1 athlete at the top of his crop. That doesn't mean it isn't there.

His workouts haven't shed any new light for me. Still have him as a horse that has run an 'B' derby prep performance, while trip-aided. That isn't bad at all.

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Longshot

Do you happen to know how Asmussen does history wise with horse coming off a six week layoff ?

Just curious ?

Hence will be off 41 days since his last race. According to my database from 9657 races with 30 to 89 days since their last race Asmussen Wins 21% and is in the money 52%.[/QUOTE]

I would say that is pretty well ??

I thought anything over 20 % winners is good with a trainer ???

Solid / Great Work ....Thank you !!!

[The Biscuit]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

One negative regarding Hence. In the last 30 years only 1 Derby winner carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Super Saver in sloppy going). Only 3 place finishers carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and only 1 show horse carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Dortmund).

Feel like the Red Baron getting shot down by Snoopy ....

Thanks for posting though ....

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

One negative regarding Hence. In the last 30 years only 1 Derby winner carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Super Saver in sloppy going). Only 3 place finishers carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and only 1 show horse carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position (Dortmund).

This is an interesting observation. For what it's worth, I don't notice Mr. P showing up on dam side pedigrees as much as the top side... and when I do, it's usually in the "power hole" (top line of dam sire). Limited sample size?

I'm not big on the flatter game at this stage of a Thoroughbred career but consider Hence beat Irap (who beat everyone in the Blue Grass) and Conquest Mo Money (who beat everyone but Classic Empire in the Ark). You can view this as the Sunland being a superior prep or take some Mike Watchmaker skepticism suggesting an indictment on the Blue Grass and Ark fields. I'm inclined to believe the prep was as real as any this year.

Hence scored the highest Brisnet figure off all 9F preps, beating Always Dreaming and Irish War Cry by a point. The amended BSF is tied for second best with Always Dreaming with Irish having the only triple digit BSF.

Hence is RAN sire line which have won about half the Derby races in recent decades in spite of only representing a quarter of all starters. He certainly ran fast fractions at Sunland but we don't have a large sample size for horses coming from that prep. He gets a leading rider in Geroux who should know how to navigate 10 panels. And if you pardon my sarcasm, he gets Asmussen's zapper. Also, if you're a fan of Jon White's Derby strike system then he only has one compared to two for Always Dreaming.

I don't see a strong reason not to play Hence. He will join Classic Empire and Always Dreaming (and maybe a recreational wager on longshot Lookin at Lee) on top my tickets. I figure Hence will be around 12-1 on the tote, about where I expect McCraken.

[Julz]

I think the problem is that you've already picked your key horse and are looking for negatives of other horses in order to fit your picks. When it comes to the derby you can't fall in love with your pick. I watched both of his works and both were excellent. I also have clockers I speak to and they gave rave reviews. I've made the mistake you made many times in the past and have paid for it when I fell in love with a horse. He is actually not my pick to win, but I cannot say anything he has done wrong either. He smoked Irap who won the bluegrass and conquest who gave classic empire, the eventual chalk for the derby, all he could handle. I feel like you're looking for negatives because you've already made your selection based on previous posts. My point is, pick your winner, pick your horse, but don't back into it and find negatives on other horses when he has done nothing but win convincingly and train well, and in great times. If this is actually one of the horses you're concerned about, throw him in some exotics on top and hope for the best, while playing your selection more heavily.

[Parson]

Stan who were the 3 place horses?

[sbcaris]

The three place horses that carried Mr. Prospector in the X passing position were:

Firing Line in--2015 (Mr. Prospector is the broodmare sire of Firing Line's broodmare sire).

Golden Soul in 2013 (Mr. Prospector is his broodmare sire).

Bluegrass Cat 2006 (Mr. Prospector is his second damsire).

Interestingly, the only winner with Mr. Prospector in the X was Super Saver who caught a sloppy track in 2010. Mr. Prospector is Super Saver's second damsire.

Golden Soul in 2013 also caught a sloppy track and his broodmare sire was Mr. Prospector, a noted mud sire.

This year Girvin a leading contender has Mr. Prospector in the X passing position and Hence has Mr. Prospector as his second damsire.