|
|
01-03-2022, 02:52 PM
|
#1
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
|
New Handicapping book coming out
Dick Jerardi, one of Beyer Asasosciates, has written a book based on Beyer figs, making them, using them, according to Rich Perlof on TVG today.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
01-03-2022, 06:00 PM
|
#2
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,567
|
I remember buying a thin paperback some years ago about the Beyer figure patterns, and other guidelines on the proper use of these figures. Wasn't that book written by Dick Jerardi?
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
Last edited by thaskalos; 01-03-2022 at 06:01 PM.
|
|
|
01-03-2022, 06:36 PM
|
#3
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I remember buying a thin paperback some years ago about the Beyer figure patterns, and other guidelines on the proper use of these figures. Wasn't that book written by Dick Jerardi?
|
Joe Cardello.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
|
|
|
01-04-2022, 01:21 PM
|
#4
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,828
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I remember buying a thin paperback some years ago about the Beyer figure patterns, and other guidelines on the proper use of these figures. Wasn't that book written by Dick Jerardi?
|
https://www.thriftbooks.com/w/speed-...4&idiq=7686767
|
|
|
01-04-2022, 05:11 PM
|
#5
|
Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
|
Have not been able to find the new Jerardi book. Tom, any idea?
As far as the Cardello book goes--wasn't much there. Another DRF-published book--this one was about reading charts, from Nick Borg. It would be helpful to someone who has never read a chart, but generally a waste of time to anyone already familiar with them.
If I learn anything useful from a book, then I'm satisfied. Can't say I learned anything from either.
|
|
|
01-04-2022, 08:22 PM
|
#6
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
|
Jerardi book not released yet. It has been written, as I understand, and going through the process. Perloff read an advance copy, so I would guess soon.
I'll post here when I see it.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
01-05-2022, 09:29 PM
|
#7
|
velocitician
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 26,297
|
How can a study of FINAL TIME be able to differentiate the varied paces of race BEFORE that mark? There could be a myriad of different intermediate fractions that would make a single FINAL TIME totally useless for comparison sake.
Beyer learned when he stated: "It's NOT how fast they run, but HOW they run fast."
__________________
"If this world is all about winners, what's for the losers?" Jr. Bonner: "Well somebody's got to hold the horses Ace."
|
|
|
01-05-2022, 10:12 PM
|
#8
|
The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,879
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
How can a study of FINAL TIME be able to differentiate the varied paces of race BEFORE that mark? There could be a myriad of different intermediate fractions that would make a single FINAL TIME totally useless for comparison sake.
Beyer learned when he stated: "It's NOT how fast they run, but HOW they run fast."
|
Woulda coulda shoulda.
All that matters is the results.
And the results are that the Beyers are sound, not at all useless. Just because you don't know how to use them......
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
|
|
|
01-05-2022, 10:41 PM
|
#9
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by 46zilzal
How can a study of FINAL TIME be able to differentiate the varied paces of race BEFORE that mark? There could be a myriad of different intermediate fractions that would make a single FINAL TIME totally useless for comparison sake.
Beyer learned when he stated: "It's NOT how fast they run, but HOW they run fast."
|
Andy was quoting his trip handicapping friend "Charlie", who looked condescendingly on speed figures. Beyer obviously hasn't wavered from figures as his answer to "Who is better than whom"?
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
|
|
|
01-06-2022, 09:29 AM
|
#10
|
Veteran
Join Date: May 2021
Location: NYC
Posts: 1,554
|
When people realize that every race is "unique"
They will become better handicappers.
I use FIGs for only one reason.....to see if a horse ran a top last out
My research shows less than 12% wins next out...
Most of the time with those high figs , they get bet....
With one of the favorites out , you can get value....
My handicapping is old school Bradshaw's Match-Up.....
the early horse will win if no one is faster than him...
Mike
|
|
|
01-06-2022, 11:39 AM
|
#11
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by geroge.burns99
When people realize that every race is "unique"
They will become better handicappers.
I use FIGs for only one reason.....to see if a horse ran a top last out
My research shows less than 12% wins next out...
Most of the time with those high figs , they get bet....
With one of the favorites out , you can get value....
My handicapping is old school Bradshaw's Match-Up.....
the early horse will win if no one is faster than him...
Mike
|
Agree, Mike. And agree with 46zilzal, in the sense that most are obsessed with the finish of races.
After a lot of refinements, I focus on the percentages/odds established by the public. Most favorites are in the 35% or bit higher group. The next three in odds rank usually are a collective 50%. They have my attention. I sift the remaining 15% for a type of Steven Crist "C" horse or two.
The figs don't describe ability unless today's trip figures to be very similar to that in which the figure was achieved, and I'm always looking for a big fig to translate into an "easy trip", justifying betting favorites' 30's percent chances versus the sweet spot 2nd thru 4th ranked horses.
I don't see anyone asking, as in yesterday's opener at GP, "Streaming Tap earned a top 80 (bris) in an 83 (winner) field. How is he going to earn an 80 without others in the field (the inner dynamics of the race) having the ability to do so"?
Happens every day with many top figs.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
|
|
|
01-06-2022, 11:48 AM
|
#12
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
|
I think Andy's speculations here have some validity...
https://books.google.com/books?id=3j...0beyer&f=false
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
|
|
|
01-06-2022, 01:22 PM
|
#13
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,567
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
|
I too used to trust a horse's speed figures when it was being non-competitive in a race...but I now consider this to be a very costly mistake. And if Andy Beyer were here, I think he would admit that he would have preferred not to have cashed that large daily-double ticket on Big Coach.
__________________
"Theory is knowledge that doesn't work. Practice is when everything works and you don't know why."
-- Hermann Hesse
|
|
|
01-06-2022, 02:08 PM
|
#14
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I too used to trust a horse's speed figures when it was being non-competitive in a race...but I now consider this to be a very costly mistake. And if Andy Beyer were here, I think he would admit that he would have preferred not to have cashed that large daily-double ticket on Big Coach.
|
Disagree, Thask. Andy talked a good trip handicapping game, but I never really saw him apply anything more than generalities to the trip approach. I'm exaggerating by saying the figs are his raison d' etre, but Big Coach was their desired effect.
I don't mean I disregard a top fig outright, even an outrun figure. I'm taking in GP casually today, gearing up for the weekend. Within the parameters of public percentages as I mentioned above, I compared my visual impressions of Macedonian (62-70 bris) and Merzaz (83) in the second race, hoping to downgrade the former. If you access their last race, my notes read:
Macedonian had easy outside speed, was passed by winner, gave ground 2T/3T pushing, 3ES weakened.
Merzaz 2/3 FT, restrained a few strides rounding, 3E backstretch, zoomed to stalk later B, 4T, bolted widest ES.
The latter clearly impressed, while Macedonian folded to a rival still under a hold, analagous to a driver pressing the accelerator losing ground to a car maintaining position in neutral. I was mildly concerned about the layoff- one doesn't improve upon Pletcher- and the subsequent drop, but the work on 11/21 was sufficient.
Much of the above involved watching the jockey's hands, etc. I first got the idea that this was significant when Beyer's "Charlie" was able to detect race fixing at Saratoga in '74 when applying his skills.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
|
|
|
01-06-2022, 02:22 PM
|
#15
|
Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: St. Louis suburb
Posts: 1,761
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
Disagree, Thask. Andy talked a good trip handicapping game, but I never really saw him apply anything more than generalities to the trip approach. I'm exaggerating by saying the figs are his raison d' etre, but Big Coach was their desired effect.
I don't mean I disregard a top fig outright, even an outrun figure. I'm taking in GP casually today, gearing up for the weekend. Within the parameters of public percentages as I mentioned above, I compared my visual impressions of Macedonian (62-70 bris) and Merzaz (83) in the second race, hoping to downgrade the former. If you access their last race, my notes read:
Macedonian had easy outside speed, was passed by winner, gave ground 2T/3T pushing, 3ES weakened.
Merzaz 2/3 FT, restrained a few strides rounding, 3E backstretch, zoomed to stalk later B, 4T, bolted widest ES.
The latter clearly impressed, while Macedonian folded to a rival still under a hold, analagous to a driver pressing the accelerator losing ground to a car maintaining position in neutral. I was mildly concerned about the layoff- one doesn't improve upon Pletcher- and the subsequent drop, but the work on 11/21 was sufficient.
Much of the above involved watching the jockey's hands, etc. I first got the idea that this was significant when Beyer's "Charlie" was able to detect race fixing at Saratoga in '74 when applying his skills.
|
Oops, wrong notes for Macedonian. Those are for Queen Domina in next race, another underlay.
Should read: stalk rail easy pace, moderate effort B, T while needed effort mid-T; stopped.
__________________
"I like to come here (Saratoga) every year to visit my money." ---Joe E. Lewis
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|