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Old 11-25-2021, 11:47 PM   #1
mountainman
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Fixed odds Wagering

What countries offer this?

Who sets the odds?

So, the house forgoes breakage?
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Old 11-26-2021, 06:12 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by mountainman View Post
What countries offer this?

Who sets the odds?

So, the house forgoes breakage?
These are legal bookmakers.

They set the odds to allow for profit.
Some of them have relatively fair "takeouts" but most have outlandish lines.

Add up the booking points and compare to the booking lines in an EqB chart.

Booking Points:
2/1 = 33
3/1 = 25
8/1 = 11
etc.
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Old 11-26-2021, 10:54 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
These are legal bookmakers.

They set the odds to allow for profit.
Some of them have relatively fair "takeouts" but most have outlandish lines.

Add up the booking points and compare to the booking lines in an EqB chart.

Booking Points:
2/1 = 33
3/1 = 25
8/1 = 11
etc.
Tx, Dave. By "outlandish lines" you mean too few total points, and thus the bookie has the best of it?

Also, I assume this works like any traditional sports-line, wherein price gets adjusted on the fly in attempting to equalize support for all contestants?

Last edited by mountainman; 11-26-2021 at 11:04 AM.
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Old 11-26-2021, 01:31 PM   #4
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Tx, Dave. By "outlandish lines" you mean too few total points, and thus the bookie has the best of it?

Also, I assume this works like any traditional sports-line, wherein price gets adjusted on the fly in attempting to equalize support for all contestants?
TOO MANY TOTAL POINTS.

Look at an EqB chart.
For each betting interest, perform apply this equation:

Book% = 100 / (odds +1)

Thus,
#1 2.50 = 100/3.50 = 28.6
#2 3.60 = 100/4.60 = 21.7

Sum the Book% for all horses and you will get a number that represents THAT race - considering the track takeout on win bets.

Let's say that it adds to 126 points.

This number represents the "100% Line."
Thus, #1's 28.6 / 126 = 22.7% of the pool.
That means that he had 22.7% of the actual money wagered in the pool.

Do that for a handful of races AT THAT TRACK to deal with breakage and you have a real handle on the impact of takeout.

________
So, imagine if you add up the bookmaker's line:
LOWER TOTAL POINTS = Higher return for the bettor
(i.e. lower takeout)
HIGHER TOTAL POINTS = lower return for the bettor
(i.e. higher takeout)
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Old 11-26-2021, 06:08 PM   #5
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In the UK the vast majority of wagering is at fixed odds. Odds change during the course of the market up until the off and you get the odds offered at the time the bet is placed. The bookie's profit is what we would call the overround. ie is all the runners add up to 110% the overround would be 10%.

Image attached is the Bet365 market for R1 at Penn just now. The market bet to an overround of 15.72%. You can see the price history of the runners in grey, and the latest availabel price in yellow.

A usual UK horse race would be about 10% overround although it can vary significantly.

With betting exchanges the usual overound for a liquid market would be less than 1% but there would be a commission charge on a winning market which is usually around 2%.

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Last edited by jameegray1; 11-26-2021 at 06:09 PM.
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Old 11-26-2021, 06:22 PM   #6
mountainman
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz View Post
TOO MANY TOTAL POINTS.

Look at an EqB chart.
For each betting interest, perform apply this equation:

Book% = 100 / (odds +1)

Thus,
#1 2.50 = 100/3.50 = 28.6
#2 3.60 = 100/4.60 = 21.7

Sum the Book% for all horses and you will get a number that represents THAT race - considering the track takeout on win bets.

Let's say that it adds to 126 points.

This number represents the "100% Line."
Thus, #1's 28.6 / 126 = 22.7% of the pool.
That means that he had 22.7% of the actual money wagered in the pool.

Do that for a handful of races AT THAT TRACK to deal with breakage and you have a real handle on the impact of takeout.

________
So, imagine if you add up the bookmaker's line:
LOWER TOTAL POINTS = Higher return for the bettor
(i.e. lower takeout)
HIGHER TOTAL POINTS = lower return for the bettor
(i.e. higher takeout)
Brain freeze, Dave. I, of course, meant too MANY, points.

Similar to your post, as mnr's official lines-maker, I try to consider odds in three contexts: 1) My official guesstimate..2) closing odds as rounded down on the board..3) actual closing odds reflective of breakage

In making a morning line I use the ancient formula of :100+takeout+number of starters.
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Old 11-27-2021, 03:43 PM   #7
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attheraces.com is a great site for watching live movement of fixed odds by bookmakers in the UK as the race cards go on.

One interesting thing AtTheRaces does in their odds grid - they have this calculation at the bottom of the screen:

Bookies best price percentage = 99.70%

Meaning if you took the best price available on each horse picked out from the spread of bookies at that moment in time and bet it with $$$=%%% you'd be getting 0.30% the best of it in this example!
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:10 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jameegray1 View Post
In the UK the vast majority of wagering is at fixed odds. Odds change during the course of the market up until the off and you get the odds offered at the time the bet is placed. The bookie's profit is what we would call the overround. ie is all the runners add up to 110% the overround would be 10%.

Image attached is the Bet365 market for R1 at Penn just now. The market bet to an overround of 15.72%. You can see the price history of the runners in grey, and the latest availabel price in yellow.

A usual UK horse race would be about 10% overround although it can vary significantly.

With betting exchanges the usual overound for a liquid market would be less than 1% but there would be a commission charge on a winning market which is usually around 2%.
are most of the races stakes with purses paid by entrants?

where does the money for track employees come from? admission and concessions?
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:22 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by davew View Post
are most of the races stakes with purses paid by entrants?

where does the money for track employees come from? admission and concessions?
This is from the Racing Post:

Prize-money in Britain is funded by three streams. In 2019 funding from the levy – a ten per cent tax on bookmaker racing profits – provided 35 per cent. ... Owners' entry fees made up 15 per cent of the prize-money offered in 2019, while the remaining 50 per cent came from executive contributions by racecourses.

The on course bookmakers pay a fee to the racecourses to have stands there.

Admission to British racecourses is much higher on average than here. As an example, Newbury racecourse, which ran today, charges 16 pounds (~$21) in advance for general admission, and 20 pounds (~$27) on race day.
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:45 PM   #10
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Brain freeze, Dave. I, of course, meant too MANY, points.

Similar to your post, as mnr's official lines-maker, I try to consider odds in three contexts: 1) My official guesstimate..2) closing odds as rounded down on the board..3) actual closing odds reflective of breakage

In making a morning line I use the ancient formula of :100+takeout+number of starters.
I would change that to reflect the actual points from an actual chart.
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Old 11-27-2021, 04:57 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper View Post
attheraces.com is a great site for watching live movement of fixed odds by bookmakers in the UK as the race cards go on.

One interesting thing AtTheRaces does in their odds grid - they have this calculation at the bottom of the screen:

Bookies best price percentage = 99.70%

Meaning if you took the best price available on each horse picked out from the spread of bookies at that moment in time and bet it with $$$=%%% you'd be getting 0.30% the best of it in this example!
Sounds good in principle but you wouldn't actually be able to get all your bets on. It only takes 2 or 3 value bets in a row (win or lose) with a UK bookmaker to get your account stopped or severely limited. This is the major downside of fixed odds betting in the UK compared to pari-mutuel in the US.

Last edited by jameegray1; 11-27-2021 at 04:59 PM.
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Old 11-27-2021, 05:08 PM   #12
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............
Also, I assume this works like any traditional sports-line, wherein price gets adjusted on the fly in attempting to equalize support for all contestants?
Not always adjusted, sometimes they pull the plug on taking any more bets.At royal ascot they frequently stop bets on the color of the queens outfit for the day.

But seriously, I admire the way that meet has a row of books each with different prices. I haven't been there but they showed Nick Luck on MSNBC walking past them and buying a ticket from the best one. Came home at 10-1.

I dont see why a track can't give something like that a try, It would reward a patron that actually shows up. Of course, it's win bet only, I believe, which is a track's bread & butter. But they dont have to do it every day of the week. Something to reward the person that actually goes thru the turnstile.
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Old 11-27-2021, 05:17 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by jameegray1 View Post
Sounds good in principle but you wouldn't actually be able to get all your bets on. It only takes 2 or 3 value bets in a row (win or lose) with a UK bookmaker to get your account stopped or severely limited. This is the major downside of fixed odds betting in the UK compared to pari-mutuel in the US.
Yes - I'm aware of that - just wanted to provide the example which would definitely never be the case in a parimutuel environment where the percentage is ALWAYS going to be 118% or thereabouts.

We have definitely moved from a world of bookmakers to bean-counters (bean hoarders, really). Fixed odds in US will not be the answer many think it will be.
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Old 11-27-2021, 06:25 PM   #14
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Not always adjusted, sometimes they pull the plug on taking any more bets.At royal ascot they frequently stop bets on the color of the queens outfit for the day.

But seriously, I admire the way that meet has a row of books each with different prices. I haven't been there but they showed Nick Luck on MSNBC walking past them and buying a ticket from the best one. Came home at 10-1.

I dont see why a track can't give something like that a try, It would reward a patron that actually shows up. Of course, it's win bet only, I believe, which is a track's bread & butter. But they dont have to do it every day of the week. Something to reward the person that actually goes thru the turnstile.
AFAIK bookmaking is illegal and until the jurisdiction changes that, it is not up to the track.
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Old 11-27-2021, 10:27 PM   #15
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I would change that to reflect the actual points from an actual chart.
I get what you're suggesting, but my method usually will come closer to odds as shown on the board.
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