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Old 01-07-2022, 04:41 PM   #1
Tom
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The Ultimate Odds Line

So named because it uses the BRIS Ultimate PPs A semi-automatic method that creates a Power Number and an odds line, pre-calculated for you, based on the total score each horse gets. You don't even need to rate all the horses, just one if you loke, to see what odds it might get,

All is explained in the attached PDF. The idea came from discussing handicapping with Dave Schwartz and his Figuring Out What Wins seminar.
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Old 01-07-2022, 05:20 PM   #2
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Thanks for sharing Tom. I have been using Dave's stuff and teachings for over a decade, incredible experience and knowledge.
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Old 01-07-2022, 09:53 PM   #3
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You guys are awesome.

Thank you both.
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Old 01-08-2022, 09:04 AM   #4
Johnny V
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Thanks for that Tom. Very nice of you to prepare that and share it. I had been doing something vaguely similar for use with the Bris summary pp's sometime ago. Very interesting way of looking at those factors with Fibonacci sequencing etc.
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Old 01-08-2022, 10:41 AM   #5
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Sat - 1.8.22 - Oaklawn Park Race 2 (pre-scratches)

VIP Who - 32 - 5/2
Slick Silver - 19 - 5/1
Pepper Pike - 11 - 9/1
Zitman - 13 - 8/1
Jack's Advantage - 12 - 8/1

I'm drinking coffee still - hopefully I got this right - there was a double split between two horses and to get 23 I just used (10/5/5/2/1) in a simlar fashion to mimic the sequence in a reasonable way. I guess I could have used 1.5 & 1.5. Regardless, I'm at least in the ballpark and playing the game.

One of the flaws I can see is when there's a true/vulnerable favorite like "VIP-Who" here..... which should garner a larger portion of the odds line. It looks to be a true favorite and 5/2 is about perfect for a value line... the one knock I can see is that he hasn't raced since Oct 23... but has 5 works under the belt. To be generous let's say it's vulnerable... even though that's a bit questionable (possibly a true favorite) ... anyway, I think a large favorite like this can drive and over estimate the odds needed on the other 4 contenders... like Slick Silver I would just toss - (maybe the idea is that I have time to cap and toss - which is a check mark for this system is more time to actually cap) Pepper Pike's line seems ok and in-line with reality, as does zitman's but Jack's advantage I think i would need upward of $25/1.

Overall I like the idea and it's likely a very good guide to keep you out of trouble and to easily recognize huge faults in the public's line. That said look at horse #8 Gambler in this race which is outside the scope of the system. Shipper from Remmington with 2 bullet works that's 33% Win and 50% itm at the distance and is 15 / 1 on the morning line. This is the type of horse that I would want $25/1 on and I would use a half of a betting unit to win or even win/place. (only bc VIP is coming off of a layoff)

So I'm going to place a half of a betting unit on #8 and Play a small exacta 8 over 10 and then a tri 8,10/8,10/1,3,5,7 ( threw the 3 in and at least argue horse for course)

Overall the idea is great and appreciate sharing it... will post of I come up with any reasonable design changes that may work for me. I'll test it for fun on races I typically woudn't bet.
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Old 01-08-2022, 12:22 PM   #6
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I always do an analysis of the top 5 after ratings, for such things as a long layoff, surface,etc, but a good chunk of the better prices come from horses I would usually throw out. Like last time turf, today dirt. I may just pass if the top horse looks legit but is an underlay.
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Old 01-20-2022, 12:27 PM   #7
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Quote:
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So named because it uses the BRIS Ultimate PPs A semi-automatic method that creates a Power Number and an odds line, pre-calculated for you, based on the total score each horse gets. You don't even need to rate all the horses, just one if you loke, to see what odds it might get,

All is explained in the attached PDF. The idea came from discussing handicapping with Dave Schwartz and his Figuring Out What Wins seminar.
Check your email here for a note from me when you get a minute.

TD
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Old 01-21-2022, 09:59 AM   #8
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Check your email here for a note from me when you get a minute.

TD
Sounds good. I replied. TY
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Old 01-25-2022, 12:54 PM   #9
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Thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom View Post
So named because it uses the BRIS Ultimate PPs A semi-automatic method that creates a Power Number and an odds line, pre-calculated for you, based on the total score each horse gets. You don't even need to rate all the horses, just one if you loke, to see what odds it might get,

All is explained in the attached PDF. The idea came from discussing handicapping with Dave Schwartz and his Figuring Out What Wins seminar.

This is why I love this sport. The combination of amazing athletes and mathmatics makes it irresistable. Thanks for helping me add some tools to my handicapping arsenal.
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Old 01-25-2022, 05:45 PM   #10
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Thanks, glad you liked it. My goal was to get some handicapping discussion going.

Since I posted this, Aqueduct has stated the winter racing and I have shuffled the deck a bit to adjust for the results.

I now rank Prime Power #1 - #5 as 16-10-6-4-2 (16 being the next highest Fibonacci number), Speed Last Race as 10-6-4-2-1, and Average Class at 6-4-2-1.

Here are the results so far, as scored, with no handicapping decisions at all.

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File Type: png results.PNG (3.6 KB, 793 views)
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Last edited by Tom; 01-25-2022 at 05:50 PM.
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Old 01-25-2022, 06:58 PM   #11
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nice work tom id love to see the roi on the extas thanks and great work
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Old 01-25-2022, 07:22 PM   #12
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nice work tom id love to see the roi on the extas thanks and great work
I didn't record the ex prices, but I'll go back and fill them in.
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Old 01-25-2022, 08:00 PM   #13
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Thanks, glad you liked it. My goal was to get some handicapping discussion going.

Since I posted this, Aqueduct has stated the winter racing and I have shuffled the deck a bit to adjust for the results.

I now rank Prime Power #1 - #5 as 16-10-6-4-2 (16 being the next highest Fibonacci number), Speed Last Race as 10-6-4-2-1, and Average Class at 6-4-2-1.

Here are the results so far, as scored, with no handicapping decisions at all.
I forgot to add, the new point total to calculate odds is 74 instead of 115.
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Old 01-26-2022, 09:15 AM   #14
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Thanks, glad you liked it. My goal was to get some handicapping discussion going.

Since I posted this, Aqueduct has stated the winter racing and I have shuffled the deck a bit to adjust for the results.

I now rank Prime Power #1 - #5 as 16-10-6-4-2 (16 being the next highest Fibonacci number), Speed Last Race as 10-6-4-2-1, and Average Class at 6-4-2-1.

Here are the results so far, as scored, with no handicapping decisions at all.
This sample is from AQU so far this meet?
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Old 01-26-2022, 10:45 AM   #15
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Yes.
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