Exchange Wagering - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

thetripleclowns · 12-29-2021, 04:36 PM

We had a great talk to TK Kuegler from Wasabi Ventures about exchange wagering. He shares his thoughts on how this could help the future of the sport.

I know its pretty long, but it is chalk full of information. What are your thoughts on exchange wagering?

davew · 12-29-2021, 06:25 PM

I do like the idea of exchange wagering in conjunction with parimutual.

Some issues that would have to be overcome ...

-every state offering would need legislation to approve bet method for the state Racing Commission to oversee.

-somehow, trainers and jockeys would need to be tracked in the market so they do not manipulate races for their own financial gain. After watching thousands of races, it is apparent to me that it is easier to make a horse likely 'not win' than to make a horse likely win. It was interesting that your topic was how to 'fix' horse racing.

-in theory all bets could use exchange wagering, but too many would dilute entire market so that only 'bots' would be matching. Who would match a $10 bet on 123 trifecta for $50 offered, even for $1? How many tracks even show trifecta probables before a race?

-a percentage (10%?) of successful matched bets (bet to win OR bet to lose) would be needed to implement exchange and add to track finances (a takeout).

-a hard close when gate opens would be needed.

BarchCapper · 12-29-2021, 08:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davew

-a hard close when gate opens would be needed.

Some of the appeal with exchange wagering is "in running" wagers - e.g. an expected pacesetting favorite is at 6-5 when gates open, breaks in the air and winds up 5 lengths back after a quarter mile. On the exchange, you would be able to offer let's say, 15-1 odds right at that point (on a horse whose chances most would view as having been seriously compromised) and see if anyone takes you up on it. From what I understand, you can offer up to 1000-1 on the Betfair exchange at any point in the race.

I'm sure others could do a better job of explaining - but the key point is the market is open until the race is completed.

davew · 12-30-2021, 02:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Some of the appeal with exchange wagering is "in running" wagers - e.g. an expected pacesetting favorite is at 6-5 when gates open, breaks in the air and winds up 5 lengths back after a quarter mile. On the exchange, you would be able to offer let's say, 15-1 odds right at that point (on a horse whose chances most would view as having been seriously compromised) and see if anyone takes you up on it. From what I understand, you can offer up to 1000-1 on the Betfair exchange at any point in the race.

I'm sure others could do a better job of explaining - but the key point is the market is open until the race is completed.

in-running favors no computer lag or delay of video broadcast

I can watch a race from a track on 3 ADWs or cable platforms and sometimes see quite a few seconds apart in feeds.

BarchCapper · 12-30-2021, 09:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davew

in-running favors no computer lag or delay of video broadcast

I can watch a race from a track on 3 ADWs or cable platforms and sometimes see quite a few seconds apart in feeds.

For those reasons it's "some of the appeal" for OTHERS, not for me!

the little guy · 12-30-2021, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BarchCapper

Some of the appeal with exchange wagering is "in running" wagers - e.g. an expected pacesetting favorite is at 6-5 when gates open, breaks in the air and winds up 5 lengths back after a quarter mile. On the exchange, you would be able to offer let's say, 15-1 odds right at that point (on a horse whose chances most would view as having been seriously compromised) and see if anyone takes you up on it. From what I understand, you can offer up to 1000-1 on the Betfair exchange at any point in the race.

I'm sure others could do a better job of explaining - but the key point is the market is open until the race is completed.

In race betting, while extremely attractive in concept, is not realistic in US racing. Even for professional sports there is a lag time of at least seven seconds, a time period when a great deal will change in races, making it pretty much impossible to pull off successfully.

Baby steps.

Onesome · 12-30-2021, 09:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by davew

in-running favors no computer lag or delay of video broadcast

I can watch a race from a track on 3 ADWs or cable platforms and sometimes see quite a few seconds apart in feeds.

I believe last year there was an issue with drones being flown over UK race courses during meets to try and get a couple of seconds of advantage over the feeds for this purpose. It's all about who has the quickest feeds

SG4 · 12-31-2021, 03:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Onesome

I believe last year there was an issue with drones being flown over UK race courses during meets to try and get a couple of seconds of advantage over the feeds for this purpose. It's all about who has the quickest feeds

Here was a pretty good article on this:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/horse-racing-drone

When the NJ exchange was up & running for its spell I believe all wagers closed once horses crossed the finish line. I wonder if any foreign exchanges stay open until a race is official, might be fun trying to handicap the stewards sometimes, or hedging if you're in danger of a DQ.

Onesome · 12-31-2021, 12:02 PM

In the UK betfair will reopen the market when a photo is called for, not sure on stewards inquiries cause they really dont happen all that much there.

vegasone · 12-31-2021, 06:10 PM

Reminds of the early 80's when "friend" waited for races running off scheduled start time. Had someone somewhere on a hill looking at start of race and got info on who was in the lead at start of race and put in bets with the bookie who was unaware of actual start time. Crazy stuff happens.

biggestal99 · 01-02-2022, 08:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thetripleclowns

We had a great talk to TK Kuegler from Wasabi Ventures about exchange wagering. He shares his thoughts on how this could help the future of the sport.

I know its pretty long, but it is chalk full of information. What are your thoughts on exchange wagering?

https://youtu.be/b2Z76jNpOBM

My thoughts. Exchange wagering is great.

North Americans horseplayers won’t bet into it despite its obvious advantages over pari mutuel.

Been there done that in jersey.

Allan