Mohawk Friday, Jul 17

[EdZone]

Betting cheap Ass Pick4

R4 $0.20 Pick-4: ,, / ,, / , / ,, Bets: 54 Total: $10.80

R8 $0.20 Pick-4: , / ,, / ,, / ,, Bets: 54 Total: $10.80

[ucancallmemrlucky]

$.20 pick 4 starting with race 4:




$14.40 ticket

$.20 pick 4 starting with race 8:




$21.60 ticket

[Ray2000]

I'm having a horrible time in trying to win with the ....


Here we go again, Win/Place on 1st Pick

Race    Picks    Rating       Name            
1    6,5,8    3.0       Susies Lady           Ml   5-2             
2    1,6,2    2.7       Dovuto Hanover  L     Ml   15-1            
3    4,6,1    3.0       Sheer Energy          Ml   8-1             
4    6,5,3    3.4       Highmoon Sunshine  L  Ml   8-1             
5    5,6,3    3.8       Lovely Donna          Ml   6-1             
6    6,2,5    3.1       Beach Sports          Ml   6-1             
7    6,3,1    4.3       Wine Rack Hanover     Ml   6-1             
8    5,6,1    4.4       Alicorn               Ml   8-5             
9    9,4,6    3.1       Treacherous Reign  L  Ml   2-1             
10   3,6,5    4.0       Perfect Storm         Ml   7-5             
11   6,4,2    2.8       Miss Mady  L          Ml   15-1

[Poindexter]

Race 4

$1 Pick 4

4) 5-7-9-10
5) 9 (taking a shot here)
6) 5-6-8
7) 8

Numbers verified, total outlay $12.

Late Pick 5

.20 cent pick 5

ticket 1)

6)5-6-8
7) 8
8) 5
9)3-5-6-7-8-9
10)3-4-5

$10.80 play


Ticket 2)

6) 5-6-8
7) 8
8) 3-4-5-8
9) 9
10) 3-4-5

$7.20 Play

Total outlay pick 5 $18

[Sea Biscuit]

Race 4 #10 Miss Rockadali W/p

[Poindexter]

Since I missed leg 1 of the pick 4, going to have to come back with a
$4 pick 4

in race 5

9 with 5-6-8 with 8 for another $12 outlay.

[Sea Biscuit]

Race 5 Betting 2 horses here. #2 and #6

[Sea Biscuit]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Since I missed leg 1 of the pick 4, going to have to come back with a
$4 pick 4

in race 5

9 with 5-6-8 with 8 for another $12 outlay.

Great pick the #9

[EdZone]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Since I missed leg 1 of the pick 4, going to have to come back with a
$4 pick 4

in race 5

9 with 5-6-8 with 8 for another $12 outlay.

Looks like you get back $200+

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit

Great pick the #9

Thank you,

$4 pick returned $207.80.

Pick 5 pending.

[Sea Biscuit]

Race 9 #8 KZendall Seelster w/p

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Race 4

$1 Pick 4

4) 5-7-9-10
5) 9 (taking a shot here)
6) 5-6-8
7) 8

Numbers verified, total outlay $12.

Late Pick 5

.20 cent pick 5

ticket 1)

6)5-6-8
7) 8
8) 5
9)3-5-6-7-8-9
10)3-4-5

$10.80 play


Ticket 2)

6) 5-6-8
7) 8
8) 3-4-5-8
9) 9
10) 3-4-5

$7.20 Play

Total outlay pick 5 $18

I am a special blend of stupid today.

[Ray2000]

Originally Posted by Ray2000

I'm having a horrible time in trying to win with the ....


Here we go again, Win/Place on 1st Pick

Race    Picks    Rating       Name            
1    6,5,8    3.0       Susies Lady           Ml   5-2             
2    1,6,2    2.7       Dovuto Hanover  L     Ml   15-1            
3    4,6,1    3.0       Sheer Energy          Ml   8-1             
4    6,5,3    3.4       Highmoon Sunshine  L  Ml   8-1             
5    5,6,3    3.8       Lovely Donna          Ml   6-1             
6    6,2,5    3.1       Beach Sports          Ml   6-1             
7    6,3,1    4.3       Wine Rack Hanover     Ml   6-1             
8    5,6,1    4.4       Alicorn               Ml   8-5             
9    9,4,6    3.1       Treacherous Reign  L  Ml   2-1             
10   3,6,5    4.0       Perfect Storm         Ml   7-5             
11   6,4,2    2.8       Miss Mady  L          Ml   15-1

Finally on the plus side....
$2 returns, Win bets pushed--Place betting did OK

Race    Win    Place    2$DD
R1    -----    $3.00    $18.80
R2    $5.30    $3.20    -----
R3    -----    -----    -----
R4    $12.50    $7.00    -----
R5    -----    $7.80    -----
R6    -----    $3.50    -----
R7    -----    $5.10    -----
R8    -----    -----    -----
R9    -----    $3.90    -----
R10    $3.60    $2.50    -----
R11    


    $21.40    $36.00    $18.80

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

[/B]




I am a special blend of stupid today.

Just to expand upon this. If you weren't paying attention I condensed a $43.20 late pick 5 ticket last night to $18 by requiring either Alicorn a 1/5 shot or Treacherous Reign a 9/5 shot win. Now, the reason I say I was a special blend of stupid, is this is a strategy that should not be used for .20 cent pick 4's or pick 5's in the context I used it. Once in a while I will use it if I am so deep I have no choice and I see enough potential value in the spreads that I want to keep the ticket within reason, but there was no reason to use this strategy last night. I had a single, 2 triples and 2 spreads. $43.20 is below the amount I typically play on the pick 5' as I typically am at at least $50, often as high as $80 to $120 in my pick 5 outlay.

Now I am going to discuss why this was so stupid, besides the obvious (that had I just played the straight $43.20 ticket I would have gotten back over $1600 and had the 2nd place finisher in the last not been completely blocked through the lane, that actually would have been around $3000 . Let's assume Alicorn had a 70% chance and Treacherous Reign had a 35% chance of winning(those were my estimations). The chances of both losing were .30*.65 or 19.5%. So 80% of the time one of these 2 at least will win and I would have cashed using the strategy I did. Now in my estimation my single had about a 50% chance of winning (it didn't hurt that his main competition broke at the start, triples each had about a 90% chance of winning. So I had a 40% chance of getting through those 3 legs. The two spreads were probably .95 in the alicorn race and .90 in the Better B Donna race. So $43.20 play would have had about a 34% chance of winning. The approach I used had about 27% chance of winning for $18. So if I played 100 of these over time the cost would have been $4320 for the caveman approach and $1800 for the approach I used. So the question is would the 9 times I hit by playing a full ticket and both Alicorn and Treacherous Reign lost reimburse me the extra $2520 in outlay(that would require about a $280 payout on average). I believe the answer is a clear yes. Obviously yesterday was a special payout because it had a 48-1 shot in one of the spreads. But even so when odds on favorites start losing in pick 5's the payouts start multiplying. I know Treacherous Reign was 2nd favorite (I have no idea why he wasn't favorite in there-that was ridiculous in itself) but I expected him to go off at no higher than 6/5. In contrar, it is the times that Alicorn and/or Treacherous reign win (either 1 or both) that the payouts become severely jeopardized. Keying these horses(if I elected to do so) should have been done in the extra play category, not in the main play category. More often than not I don't do a lot of this, because a lot of these horses do lose and they are typically poor value and depress the payoffs too much.

I actually had a very good night despite multiple screw ups betting (should have also had the late pick 4 which paid more than the late pick 5-did have the late pick 3 at least), so I will just sweep this night under the rug and chalk it up to fatigue. Handicapped very well (other than the 4th race where I had no business leaving the winner out) and left a lot of chips on the table. Tis the game we play. This is just a little therapy for myself but hopes it serves some out there well. The reason I love the often criticized 20 cent minimum pick 4's and pick 5's, is because it enables me to play properly and not be forced to make the kinds of bonehead decisions I made last night. I know they make the pools more efficient and this $1600 payout likely would have been a lot higher (relatively speaking) on a .50 cent base or especially on a $1 base, but it is a bankroll/comfort level issue to me.