Picking the right closers key to hitting the Superfecta

[LemonSoupKid]

Originally Posted by zico20

Those are the exact ones I have. I do not like another horse in the race, period.

If you feel strongly about those horses, the Derby by definition creates value for you, because of inefficient allocations and so many horses. Looking at relative payout scenarios to other years is not the way to do it.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by luisbe

I dropped Long Range Toddy after the AD. It does not sound like a big payoff.

Asmussen, despite so much success....never won a derby, and he's had a slew of pretty great horses making the gate. Maybe he's due. This one would surely qualify as a "big payoff"

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Country house can absolutely win the race if the track favors closers

that is true and he makes a good longshot play
At any rate, I have him possibly winning the Belmont...totally right horse for that race. So, it's all good. If you like him, stay on him.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Tacitus and Code of Honor are the best closers in this field.



Win Win Win is a bit interesting, but in the TB Derby he had inside position on Tacitus, and got passed and beat handily in a dream trip. I like his Bluegrass, although he found trouble which is really my biggest problem. This guy always seems to find some kind of trouble, and when you have to likely pass 15 or so other horses to cross the finish line 1st, that is a pretty tall task to ask.


Haikal is the bomber I want if it is a complete pace meltdown. This guy is gonna keep coming regardless. This is your Giacomo/Mine That Bird crazy last to 1st horse, but he won't be 50/1.



Country House is a complete toss for me. He had a perfect set up in the Risen Star and came up short. His last two, both at 9F he flattened out when it mattered. You can call out pace factors all you want, but I still need this guy gaining ground late to be a true deep closer. Looks like a one turn upwards to a mile sprint closer. Still think his MSW$50K in which he closed into pedestrian fractions is vastly overrated.