The mindset of making Win Bets versus Horizontal Wagers - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Andy Asaro · 07-12-2021, 09:03 AM

Been playing at www.horsetourneys.com and www.horseplayers.com where the overwhelming majority of contests are WP for the last year and a half. I find that playing in the WP contests really helps with horizontals where you get a false sense of security when spreading in various races. Just about everyone tends to use horses they don't really like when constructing horizontal wagers.

In short playing in the contests helps me to complete the handicapping process instead of shortcutting the process by spreading.

Opinions?

Andy Asaro · 07-12-2021, 09:23 AM

Looks like I put the thread in the wrong section. Sorry about that

classhandicapper · 07-12-2021, 09:27 AM

I think anything that forces you to think harder about a race and the values when trying to separate contenders is going to help you over the long haul regardless of what types of bets you are making. IMO, you don't want to get into the habit of just tossing horses in because they have chance to win. They "all" have a chance to win.

The_Turf_Monster · 07-12-2021, 09:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I think anything that forces you to think harder about a race and the values when trying to separate contenders is going to help you over the long haul regardless of what types of bets you are making. IMO, you don't want to get into the habit of just tossing horses in because they have chance to win. They "all" have a chance to win.

Depends, I ‘toss in’ a horse in almost every race and often more than one where I know the betting public is going to single a horse. That’s where the value in the horizontals is at. More often than not, that single is going to hit but catching it where it doesn’t is where your ROI on the horizontals goes through the roof

ranchwest · 07-13-2021, 01:00 PM

Hitting a single on one race is doable. Hitting singles all the way through a horizontal is a tough nut to crack.

Andy Asaro · 07-13-2021, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ranchwest

Hitting a single on one race is doable. Hitting singles all the way through a horizontal is a tough nut to crack.

More like having one single with 4 races with 3 horses but in 2 of those races you like one horse a lot more than the others. Gotta play multiple tickets in addition to the original $40.50

thaskalos · 07-13-2021, 03:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Been playing at www.horsetourneys.com and www.horseplayers.com where the overwhelming majority of contests are WP for the last year and a half. I find that playing in the WP contests really helps with horizontals where you get a false sense of security when spreading in various races. Just about everyone tends to use horses they don't really like when constructing horizontal wagers.

In short playing in the contests helps me to complete the handicapping process instead of shortcutting the process by spreading.

Opinions?

It's not that we use horses we "don't really like". Experience has told us that the horses that we "really like" usually lose...and even when they win, they don't pay much. So we spread out a little bit in search of the bigger payoffs...just as the fisherman casts a wider net in order to catch the bigger fish.

ReplayRandall · 07-13-2021, 03:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

It's not that we use horses we "don't really like". Experience has told us that the horses that we "really like" usually lose...and even when they win, they don't pay much. So we spread out a little bit in search of the bigger payoffs...just as the fisherman casts a wider net in order to catch the bigger fish.

Your post is why I AM Contrarian....Yes, I need to keep repeating it...

thaskalos · 07-13-2021, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Your post is why I AM Contrarian....Yes, I need to keep repeating it...

I won't be convinced until I see your bankroll.

ReplayRandall · 07-13-2021, 03:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I won't be convinced until I see your bankroll.

My current bankroll looks like yours did about 20 years ago...

thaskalos · 07-13-2021, 03:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

My current bankroll looks like yours did about 20 years ago...

This might be the only time you've told the truth.

thaskalos · 07-13-2021, 03:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Your post is why I AM Contrarian....Yes, I need to keep repeating it...

My handicapping and wagering methods have been made fun of by "hi-tech" players for many years now. But I have kept betting serious money all along...while they have completely disappeared from the gambling arena, never to be seen again. And some of them even owe me money.

ReplayRandall · 07-13-2021, 03:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by thaskalos

My handicapping and wagering methods have been made fun of by "hi-tech" players for many years now. But I have kept betting serious money all along...while they have completely disappeared from the gambling arena, never to be seen again. And some of them even owe me money.

But yet you're Bookie still holds the Titles to your house and car....What gives?...

MJC922 · 07-13-2021, 05:52 PM

IMO the more horses (races/legs) you insist upon tying your overlay to the more likely that multiple underlays inevitably become part of the sequence, there's no two ways around that unfortunately, it's simple probability. I'd like to win the pick six or why stop there, I'd like to win a pick nine, lol. Everybody always tells me that I can't win betting on every race, you CAN win betting every race but your less serious bets, low percentage, low margin etc have to be scaled way down.

Can you scale a pick five such that you are able to break even on the subset of tickets where three underlays win to offset your one overlay? in theory sure, in practice I'd say good luck with that. IMO win bets and/or verticals are a superior way to take advantage of overlays. Of course there are plenty of long horizontal players that will disagree, they hit the lottery and are going to be way ahead for months but luck turns around eventually. Eventually they won't be able to buy a winning month even with an edge, suddenly there's a losing year even with an edge, yea well that's how luck works when you dare it.

thaskalos · 07-13-2021, 06:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MJC922

IMO the more horses (races/legs) you insist upon tying your overlay to the more likely that multiple underlays inevitably become part of the sequence, there's no two ways around that unfortunately, it's simple probability. I'd like to win the pick six or why stop there, I'd like to win a pick nine, lol. Everybody always tells me that I can't win betting on every race, you CAN win betting every race but your less serious bets, low percentage, low margin etc have to be scaled way down.

Can you scale a pick five such that you are able to break even on the subset of tickets where three underlays win to offset your one overlay? in theory sure, in practice I'd say good luck with that. IMO win bets and/or verticals are a superior way to take advantage of overlays. Of course there are plenty of long horizontal players that will disagree, they hit the lottery and are going to be way ahead for months but luck turns around eventually. Eventually they won't be able to buy a winning month even with an edge, suddenly there's a losing year even with an edge, yea well that's how luck works when you dare it.

IMO, we can't win while betting every race...PERIOD! The fact that we even intend to bet every race shows a distinct lack of discipline which practically guarantees our financial demise at the track.