Santa Anita Derby PPs

[Blenheim]

http://www.horse-races.net/library/l...rformances.htm

See Baffert . . .

[zico20]

Not much to like after Authentic and Honor AP.

[GMB@BP]

Feels like this is the race that starts the year rather than defines the west coast 3yo. Hard to see Authentic losing given this is more the beginning and not the end of the journey.

[boys at tosconova]

rushie is a 225-1 future bet.

if he runs 1/2 here you won't see anywhere near that anymore...you really shouldn't see it now.

most of these future bets have the sucker angle already built in with short odds

[jay68802]

The Shooters Shoot has some good early foot. Looking for him and Authentic to hook and duel. Smith's ride becomes the key, gets Honor A. P. too close to the hot pace, and can ruin his chances. Might set it up for Anneau d'Or if he does that. Sits back 4 or 6 lengths off that pace and he is the winner.

[f2tornado]

Authentic gets the outside draw with some speed to the inside so he will have to earn the lead if he wants it. I'm skeptical he's a true 9F horse but this field leaves much to be desired. I think Honor AP can show more at this distance and Smith knows how to win the big ones at SA. Shooter has ample early speed but the 27 second FQ at OP last out suggests he's gonna fade barring an extreme speed bias. The lugged a bit last out so perhaps 9F is a big stretch. The Friar posted a big LP figure in a 9F event last out but is still a maiden. The rail is hot right now, albeit limited sample size. Has the breeding to last the distance and might be a decent exotics filler. Perhaps the Anneau can run back to his Juvenile figure however the horse has faltered at this distance in successive starts. Still hard to ignore the overall class of races he's run in thus far. Azul is the other Baffert that looks overmatched. His LP on the GG AW surface was mediocre.

I'll probably box the / if the probables offer 2-1 or better. If not, then I'll focus on the tri/super and mix others in the place and show pool and hope one of the top two throws a dud.

[classhandicapper]

This is the race we'll find out if Honor AP is a blossoming star that Shirreffs is bringing along slowly or just another pretty good horse.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

This is the race we'll find out if Honor AP is a blossoming star that Shirreffs is bringing along slowly or just another pretty good horse.

My money is on just a good horse...and no way does Sherriffs have him cranked for this, not his style if he thought the end game is the Derby.

[cj]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

My money is on just a good horse...and no way does Sherriffs have him cranked for this, not his style if he thought the end game is the Derby.

He sure has changed styles over the years. Used to be money in the bank with young horses first few times out.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

My money is on just a good horse...and no way does Sherriffs have him cranked for this, not his style if he thought the end game is the Derby.

He seems to be working him harder and faster coming into this race than the previous ones. That's kind of what he used to do with Zenyatta when he wanted a big effort. The last race was more of a prep. He even said that. But your point is well taken. This is not the main event. Still, it's a pretty important race given that the Derby isn't coming up for awhile. He may also run a bigger race and still not get the job done.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Still, it's a pretty important race given that the Derby isn't coming up for awhile. He may run a bigger race and still not get the job done.

I cannot fathom a trainer not getting a horse cranked for any G1 stakes. You only get some many shots before the shed these days.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

He sure has changed styles over the years. Used to be money in the bank with young horses first few times out.

yea, though I think that was a product of his clientele at the time, definitely changed after about 2000.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

I cannot fathom a trainer not getting a horse cranked for any G1 stakes. You only get some many shots before the shed these days.

Generally I agree with that, and if this was the race before the Derby then no doubt, but if you are squeezing for everything in June not sure what you have in September.

To beat Authentic it will require an absolute top effort because Baffert has them cranked fully all the time.

[jay68802]

I am pretty sure he has been focusing on this race with Honor A.P. Think there was a tweet or a article about that.

[zico20]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

Generally I agree with that, and if this was the race before the Derby then no doubt, but if you are squeezing for everything in June not sure what you have in September.

To beat Authentic it will require an absolute top effort because Baffert has them cranked fully all the time.

If a three year old can't stay in top form for four months that says a lot about the horses these days.