Saratoga: Sunday, August 27

[Teach]

Race One:

TOP FORTITUDE is a horse that’s been in a funk. This 6 year-old hasn’t won in over three years (Santa Anita’s Grade III Laz Berrera; after that, he was second at Belmont Park in the Grade II Woody Stephens). “Whaddaya Done For Me, Lately?” How the mighty have fallen! Well, a new barn, a new trainer, a new jockey, and new connections. Hark! Do I hear: wake-up call? This chestnut horse has dropped to about as low as he can go (DRF calls today’s drop: “suspicious”). In his last race (I watched the reply), this horse was slightly pinched by the horses to his outside at the start; this prevented him from being forwardly placed. His jock, Irad Ortiz, took him back. He would subsequently languish at the rear of the field before moving with energy (he was “herded” wide) in the stretch run. Yet, admittedly, only 2 wins in 21 lifetime tries is not very reassuring. But in this field with his new connections… “Double-A,” Angel Arroyo, is in the irons for trainer Robertino “Beto” Diodoro. Diodoro does very well in many racing categories: (1) first after claim; (2) drops off claim; and (3) beaten favorite. Others: , ,


Race Two:

THE ENTRY: 1/1A look like the best, here (two for the price of one). WAGE ACCELERATION was third in an MSW race at Belmont in early July; he finished 3rd. This 4 year-old Quality Road-bred colt now drops in for “a tag”. The colt’s trainer, “Mechanicsville Chad” Brown (he’s locked in a “Spa” training title battle with Todd Pletcher), has an excellent record with horses going from MSWs to MCs. A solid, recent 4-panels morning-work bolsters confidence. The other half of the entry, DATA ROOM, has not raced in over three months. Frankly, that’s concerning, especially where his morning work-tab is not overly impressive. In the aforementioned May 18thrace, this Union Rags-bred colt finished 4th against similar company. The colt went off as the 4/5 favorite in that one. His trainer, Chad Brown, does exceedingly well with horses who were beaten favorites in their last. One of this country’s top jockeys, Jose Ortiz, is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Three:

I’m going to try and beat the presumed favorite in this 7-panels, n2L with the horse that’s the second choice on Travis Roy’s morning line. I’m talking about the 6 HARLAN PUNCH. This Harlan’s Holiday-bred 4 year-old has been “the best man” (finished 2nd) so many times, you wonder whether he’s forgotten how it is “to get hitched” (win). Yet, seven panels is a tricky distance. I believe this gelding to be among the best-suited to “get the distance”. Yet, I’ll add that this gelding has failed as the favorite in his last two races. Tom Amoss trains this aptly named Indy Punch-bred. Amoss does exceedingly well with beaten favorites. Ricardo Santana, Jr. is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Four:

TRUTH IN LIES will likely be the prohibitive, odds-on favorite in this turf route. This mare was claimed a few months ago and now resides in a Jason Servis barn. Servis does exceptionally well with horses who are running in their first race off a claim. The jockey switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr. is huge. I guess my only concern is the fact that this mare’s recent morning work-tab has been mediocre, at best. Yet, despite that caveat, I believe this Giant’s Causeway-bred can prevail here. Others: , ,

Race Five:

Oh, on personal preference, I like trainer Rick Violette, Jr. when he’s conditioning MSW debut horses. In this case, his first-time starter, my choice, is the 2 year-old filly, TWOFER. This highly-priced Fasig-Tipton debutant is most capable of winning at first-asking. This Super Saver-bred’s broodmare, Wish It Were, had 5 winners from 8 starters and 1 stakes winner. My confidence level builds when I see that this Maria’s Mon-bred whistled through 3 panels in a “bulleted”:35.1. I have a strong feeling that this Is It True-bred will be out and going when the gates unlatch. Jose Ortiz (Nuff Ced) is this bay filly’s pilot. Others: , ,

Race Six:

SHE’SAKITTYKAT is my choice in this MSW state-bred sprint. In this bay filly’s two races against similar company, she finished 3rd and 4th. I believe this filly steps up here; yet, I should note that this Girolamo-bred must avoid gate issues if she is to prevail (the filly bobbled in her last). I should also mention that there is some concern that this filly hasn’t raced in about a month and a half. Yet, her trainer, Jason Servis, is having an excellent Spa meet. Servis does very well with horses entered in both sprint and dirt races. One of the best, Irad Ortiz, Jr., is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Seven:

In this wide-open state-bred turf sprint, I like FIRST APPEAL. First, this First Defence-bred bay filly has an outstanding turf record, albeit with a limited number of tries; yet, it should be stated that this filly has won three times and finished third once in her four lifetime turf-race efforts. Second, her pilot is one of the best, Jose Ortiz. Third, trainer Linda Rice does very well with horses entered in turf races. One note of caution, especially if you’re playing multi-race “gimmicks,” I can personally make a case for several horses. I would consider “buying insurance”. Others: , ,

Race Eight:

In this allowance route on The Inner, I’m picking: ASTOUNDING. Jason Servis (Is this his “red-letter” day?) trains this chestnut ridgling who’s finished second in this company in his last two. Any slight improvement… I should note that this ridgling went off the favorite in both his recent second-place finishes. He also went off as “the chalk” in this third race back and won against lesser company. I should also mention that Jason Servis does very well in most racing categories. It also should be noted that this 5 year-old is getting a slight cut-back from his most recent start; that should help. Irad Ortiz, Jr. is in the irons. Others: , ,

Race Nine:

In the Smart N Fancy non-graded stakes at 5 and ½ panels on the lawn, my pick is FAIR POINT. This 5 year-old bay mare was second in her last, the 200k non-graded Caress. Prior to that the 5 year-old was 4th, only one-length off the winner, in the Grade III Intercontinental. “Shug” McGaughey trains this daughter of Smart Strike. He does well with horses entered in turf races. Jose Ortiz reprises the ride. Finally, it should be noted that this mare has won three times and finished second three times in 8 lifetime turf starts. Others: , ,

Race Ten:

In the wide-open finale, an MSW turf route, I’m picking GIO GAME. In her only start, earlier in the meet, this Gio Ponti-bred bay filly finished second. That race was 5 and ½ panels on the main (she was pinched and steadied in that one). That race that was originally scheduled for the turf. I believe this filly should benefit from that race. This 2 year-old now stretches out. I also contend, based on her breeding, that this is a positive stretch-out. The filly’s dam, Game For More, had one winner from three starters; one was a turf winner. The filly’s trainer, the Canadian, Mark Casse, has picked up the pace, lately. An excellent turf reinsman, Julien Leparoux, is in the irons. Others: AE; , ,

[Teach]

"Horses can't talk, but they speak if you listen."
Just like humans (non-verbal body language), horses send out messages (signals) as to their well-being, or lack thereof. You need to carefully look for those nuances in the walking ring and on the track in the post parade. One can handicap all they want, but how does your horse feel when he/she steps on the track. In sprints, you're looking for the horse that looks like the knight in a chess-match. Good luck, today.

[Teach]

First Race: Horses that catch my attention -- in no particular order -- are: , , . The horse that I find less than stellar from his post parade canter is . That does not mean he can't be right there. He can. It's just that he didn't impress me as he walked onto the track. As always, good luck.