TimeformUS

[lamboguy]

congratulations to LEO O'BRIEN and ABSOLUTE PARADISE. i thought she had a decent shot the first time i entered her when our other horse in that race won CAY TO POMEROY.

when she was training about this time 2 years ago, she was going with another horse that i still have FREUD'S MISTRESS and she was always finishing in front of the Mistress.

that was a great job by Doug handicapping this race, i felt the exact same way about her prior race and thought that the New York Bred $20,000 was an easier race than the open $12.500.

no doubt after watching Doug for a few months now, he has proved his knowledge of this game over and over again, he must work very hard at it and he is the same type of handicapper as myself, only 100 times better at it.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Exotic1

What I found most interesting was the technical aspect of your selection - based on Cj's figures you had Absolute Paradise the fastest on numbers and coming out of the strongest race.

The figure differences for Gold Potion and Absolute Paradise were astonishingly large on every set of figures I examined. No one came even close to agreeing.

It's hard to understand why because using some old style class analysis they looked like very similar horses off their last race.

Gold Potion had run a solid 2nd in the same class (20K Statebred) and Absolute Paradise had run a decent 3rd with a trip for 12K (but open) in a race with several decent 16K open dropdowns. I'd say the Absolute Paradise race looked a tad stronger on a class basis.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

congratulations to LEO O'BRIEN and ABSOLUTE PARADISE. i thought she had a decent shot the first time i entered her when our other horse in that race won CAY TO POMEROY.

when she was training about this time 2 years ago, she was going with another horse that i still have FREUD'S MISTRESS and she was always finishing in front of the Mistress.

that was a great job by Doug handicapping this race, i felt the exact same way about her prior race and thought that the New York Bred $20,000 was an easier race than the open $12.500.

no doubt after watching Doug for a few months now, he has proved his knowledge of this game over and over again, he must work very hard at it and he is the same type of handicapper as myself, only 100 times better at it.

That's funny.

[Exotic1]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

The figure differences for Gold Potion and Absolute Paradise were astonishingly large on every set of figures I examined. No one came even close to agreeing.

It's hard to understand why because using some old style class analysis they looked like very similar horses off their last race.

Gold Potion had run a solid 2nd in the same class (20K Statebred) and Absolute Paradise had run a decent 3rd with a trip for 12K (but open) in a race with several decent 16K open dropdowns. I'd say the Absolute Paradise race looked a tad stronger on a class basis.

Did other sources have Absolute Paradise much faster than the field?

[Cheap Speed]

Featured TFUS race: FG R8

Is a good example of a question I was going to ask anyway. How do you view high pressure races like this one but where track profile significantly favors Early speed. TFUS calls it fast pace Pace Pressure Gage (PPG) is 37/2. BRIS track profile for last week 16 races: E=38% & E/P =44%

TFUS projects it to be (E7) (E6) (E4) but all bunched tightly

Approach/Thoughts?

PS: CJ/ClassH: I like what I see from TFUS. Nice Job. But I am curious,are there plans to add running styles and Q ES pts? What about a summary page something akin to BRIS ultimate pp?

[Cheap Speed]

Well as luck would have it just saw scratched so pace drops dramatically to PPG 18/1 but TFUS still labels as fast

Still interested in general philosophy more so than specific race now

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cheap Speed

Featured TFUS race: FG R8

Is a good example of a question I was going to ask anyway. How do you view high pressure races like this one but where track profile significantly favors Early speed. TFUS calls it fast pace Pace Pressure Gage (PPG) is 37/2. BRIS track profile for last week 16 races: E=38% & E/P =44%

TFUS projects it to be (E7) (E6) (E4) but all bunched tightly

Approach/Thoughts?

PS: CJ/ClassH: I like what I see from TFUS. Nice Job. But I am curious,are there plans to add running styles and Q ES pts? What about a summary page something akin to BRIS ultimate pp?

I personally think you still have to evaluate the horses and the track. The Pace Projector is just a guide, a starting point. There would have to be a quality closer for me to bet one in a race like the above.

We do have running styles coming very soon. They won't be in the EPS style:

Leader (need the lead)
Speed
Tracker
Midpack
Closer
Plodder

In the race above, the will be labeled as "speed", and the are all labeled as "trackers."

There will not be QSPs. There will be early speed and late speed ratings for each horse. Before joining with TFUS, my program did these and also did QSPs. The early speed ratings did a much better job on all fronts than the QSPs. To be fair though, Quirin was the starting point for a lot of the work I've done. I just took it a step further, and kept going. Early position is a big part of the early speed ratings, not just velocity.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Cheap Speed

Well as luck would have it just saw scratched so pace drops dramatically to PPG 18/1 but TFUS still labels as fast

Still interested in general philosophy more so than specific race now

We rate races on a 0-10 scale. It was a 10 before scratches. It should be around 5 or 6 after those scratches, and not labeled.

[cj]

You may want to refresh, I checked and there is no label any longer.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Exotic1

Did other sources have Absolute Paradise much faster than the field?

None that I saw. TG had them similar.

[Robert Fischer]

Giving this a try. I purchased the Unlimited Plan.

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

really Impressed

I am considering purchasing an Unlimited plan for January or February to give it a go.

You guys have some good proprietary info, and the way you are organizing the info in general, is very convenient and intuitive.

[Big Sal]

It's certainly been a great year for the Play of the Day and Stakes write-ups on the TimeformUS blog. Looking at the horse who gets profiled...

At Saratoga, 18 winners out of 59 plays. A 30.5% win percentage and a $2 ROI of $3.32 --- and that was so satisfying, because Saratoga is unarguably the premier racing meet of the year.

At Belmont's Fall Championship meet, the Play of the Day write-ups showed a flat bet profit for the meet, albeit if you take away 0-for-18 maiden Jack's R Wild ($27.40) victory, I would have come up short. So, it wasn't exactly a handicapping Tour De Force.

At Aqueduct, just take a look at the roll since November 17th:

Nov 17th: Rap D' Oro ($4.90)

Nov 21st: Royal Suspicion 2nd

Nov 22nd: Two Plays. The first one finished 2nd. The other won and paid $17.40

Nov 23rd: Vicki's Dancer ($10.80)

Nov 24th: AQU Cancelled

Nov 28th: Finished off the board.

Nov 29th: Off the board

Nov 30th. 3 plays for Cigar Mile day. Full of Sugar was off the board. Flat Out (won and paid $15.00) and Honor Code ($3.60)

Dec 1st: Bake Shop (won and paid $20.00)

Dec 5th: Mississippi Duel (won, $7.70)

Dec 6th: 2 plays. Ready To Rule was 2nd at 6/1. Fortify romped ($5.30)

Dec 7th: Rosie My Way ($7.80)

Dec 8th: Off the board

Dec 12th: $6.00 winner (this one was 10/1 ML)

Dec 13th: $10.80 winner

Dec 14th: $4.90 winner

Dec 15th: Racing Cancelled At AQU

Dec 19th: $4.90 winner (the immortal Dapper Draper)

Dec 20th: Off the board. (2nd choice won at a fat price)

Dec 21st: 2 Plays. Loki's Vengence ($3.30) other finished off the board.

Dec 22nd: $23.40 (this was Absolute Paradise, on Sunday)


Since Nov 17th, that's 15 winners from 24 horses.

Going back to Flat Out's win in the Cigar Mile: 12-for-16 and winners that paid $15.00, $20.00, and $23.40

It's certainly a great feeling to see so many have noticed. The hope is that Regression to the Mean (that, bitch!) won't take hold anytime soon, and we can keep this roll going.

However, there are areas where TimeformUS can give you an edge, and supplemented with sound and skilled handicapping...the proof is in the pudding. Those are impressive results for 2013.

[PaceAdvantage]

Indeed they are DS...and you deserve every bit of credit that comes your way...

[cj]

Starts the post-Christmas break with a nice winner!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by cj

Starts the post-Christmas break with a nice winner!

That price was borderline insane given the horse's one dirt race was also in one of the stronger MSW races we've had in NY recently and a couple of the other well beaten horses had already jumped up on a class drop. I take back everything I've recently said about the crowd getting smarter since years ago. Another excellent public pick.