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04-24-2014, 03:47 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,662
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Last year the Derby Trial gave points 20-8-4-2 but they removed it this year (and cut the Lexington points in half)
I suspect they did not expect so many ties near the cut-off
Maybe they should consider having a more gradual drop in point value or calculate points from lengths behind winner with a race awarding XXX points.
This year a couple 3rd place by a nose horses that are good on the cut-off probably won't get in.
Last edited by davew; 04-24-2014 at 03:50 PM.
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04-24-2014, 03:54 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
My mistake
Bayern has no business being in the Derby anyway
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Bayern has a better shot in the Derby than Chitu IMO.
Chitu is for sure out of the Derby Trial. Not even sure why he was entered.
IMO Baffert is hoping to see enough defections that Bayern gets in without the Trial. If that doesn't happen by the time the Derby trial is run, bet your house that the horse is going in the Trial and then in the Derby.
There is no reason for Bayern to run in the Derby Trial if they don't plan on running him on Derby Day. Baffert thinks the world of this horse.
Does it make sense to run him back in a week? Hell no, but this is the Derby, so they will be leaving logic at the door.
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04-24-2014, 03:54 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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[QUOTE=PhantomOnTour
Bayern has no business being in the Derby anyway[/QUOTE]
If Bayern runs in the derby if he will s the trial, I hope he doesn't break down.
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04-24-2014, 03:59 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by depalma113
I think he knows exactly what he is doing.
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Baffert has said on many, MANY occasions that he changes his mind about where to send his three-year-olds late in the process, based on how his horse is doing, the prospective competition, etc.
And he usually chooses correctly, in my estimation.
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04-24-2014, 04:59 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Anaheim,California
Posts: 4,675
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Back in the Good Old Days of racing the Trial was a major prep, and many colts came out of it to run well in the Derby. Today it is more of a prep for the Preakness or other lesser stakes. Tim Tam (1958) was the last to win the Trial and then the Derby. This trend has long puzzled me, with the good race over the track being a plus factor. Why not run back in 7 days if your colt runs well and come out of the race okay? In the old days the Trial was run on Tuesday and you came back in the Derby in 4 days, let alone 7. Are modern horses that fragile, or? 
__________________
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
Benjamin Franklin
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04-24-2014, 05:03 PM
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#21
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlueShoe
Back in the Good Old Days of racing the Trial was a major prep, and many colts came out of it to run well in the Derby. Today it is more of a prep for the Preakness or other lesser stakes. Tim Tam (1958) was the last to win the Trial and then the Derby. This trend has long puzzled me, with the good race over the track being a plus factor. Why not run back in 7 days if your colt runs well and come out of the race okay? In the old days the Trial was run on Tuesday and you came back in the Derby in 4 days, let alone 7. Are modern horses that fragile, or? |
That would make 3 races in 3 weeks if you have the Preakness in your plans, and that's enough to fry the dials of even the stoutest modern thoroughbred.
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How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-24-2014, 06:53 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Bakersfield, CA
Posts: 1,791
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
That would make 3 races in 3 weeks if you have the Preakness in your plans, and that's enough to fry the dials of even the stoutest modern thoroughbred.
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You don't work horses in Kentucky if your main goal is the Preakness.
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04-24-2014, 09:43 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Pocatello, Idaho
Posts: 234
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Edward DeVere
Baffert doesn't know what he's doing until he does it, and he freely admits this.
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You are right, because he is running both Chitu and Bayern in the Derby Trial, which pretty much says he's undecided. I don't honestly think he stands much of a chance with Chitu to be honest. Who will ride Bayern if he does go to the derby is the question.
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04-24-2014, 09:46 PM
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#24
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
You don't work horses in Kentucky if your main goal is the Preakness.
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I know - the main goal for everyone is the Kentucky Derby, but after that...
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How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-24-2014, 09:50 PM
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#25
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C'est Tout
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Cajunland
Posts: 13,273
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlinkersOn
You are right, because he is running both Chitu and Bayern in the Derby Trial, which pretty much says he's undecided. I don't honestly think he stands much of a chance with Chitu to be honest. Who will ride Bayern if he does go to the derby is the question.
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I think Chitu is not running in the Trial and is a go for the Derby
__________________
How do I work this?
-David Byrne
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04-24-2014, 10:14 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Pocatello, Idaho
Posts: 234
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Edward DeVere
Baffert doesn't know what he's doing until he does it, and he freely admits this.
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Chitu is listed as a possible scratch for the Derby, so it comes down to the trials to see which will be in..Chitu or Bayern. I personally wouldn't bet either of them, but it would set it up pretty good for Bob's only horse that has a chance, Hoppertunity. In either case, I don't think it truly matters which horse plays rabbit here. According to things I read tonight, both Chitu and Bayern are running in the trials. Last minute judgment call for Baffert again.
Last edited by BlinkersOn; 04-24-2014 at 10:16 PM.
Reason: addition
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04-24-2014, 10:17 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Pocatello, Idaho
Posts: 234
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour
I think Chitu is not running in the Trial and is a go for the Derby
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He is listed as running in the trials...so is Bayern. I guess we wait and see.
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04-25-2014, 06:00 AM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlinkersOn
He is listed as running in the trials...so is Bayern. I guess we wait and see.
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Chitu is not running in the Trial. Baffert has already confirmed it.
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04-25-2014, 07:39 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Pocatello, Idaho
Posts: 234
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I guess I'm confused. Won't there have to be 3 defections for Bayern to get into the Derby? Also, won't he have run his race tomorrow in the trails. I wouldn't bet him one week back. I guess I'm puzzled. If it's not a Preakness prep, then what is the point in it? Does he stand a chance to get into the Derby starting gate, or no? I know there are no points, so what is he accomplishing.
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04-25-2014, 08:10 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 1,753
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BlinkersOn
I guess I'm confused. Won't there have to be 3 defections for Bayern to get into the Derby? Also, won't he have run his race tomorrow in the trails. I wouldn't bet him one week back. I guess I'm puzzled. If it's not a Preakness prep, then what is the point in it? Does he stand a chance to get into the Derby starting gate, or no? I know there are no points, so what is he accomplishing.
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More Baffert mind games, who knows......
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