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06-10-2022, 04:01 PM
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#91
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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second race PM 7.40 FO 9.20
third race PM 7.60 FO 6.60
fourth race PM 22.00 FO 17.00
fifth race PM 2.10 FO 2.70
Allan
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06-10-2022, 04:43 PM
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#92
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green80
where are you watching the fixed odds? I don't see them displayed or the fixed odds payouts.
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www.monmouthbets.com
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06-10-2022, 04:55 PM
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#93
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alhattab
I calculated 40% for first 2 races earlier this am. Seem to have moderated.
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Here are Sat 6/11 R1 prices as of Fri late afternoon
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06-10-2022, 06:07 PM
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#94
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alhattab
Here are Sat 6/11 R1 prices as of Fri late afternoon
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Based on these odds I get:
1- 2.4%
2- 4.8
3- 15.4
4- 15.4
5- 18.2
6- 21.7
7- 28.6
8- 42.6
149.1 total(!)
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06-10-2022, 07:39 PM
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#95
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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6 race PM 7.40 FO 10.00
7 race PM 7.80 FO 9.60
8 race PM 6.60 FO 8.00
Allan
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06-10-2022, 07:43 PM
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#96
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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races 8
fixed odds had the better price 6
pari-mutual had the better price 2
fixed odds the clear winner today.
Allan
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06-10-2022, 08:19 PM
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#97
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
races 8
fixed odds had the better price 6
pari-mutual had the better price 2
fixed odds the clear winner today.
Allan
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Allan I’m wondering if they are working with a much higher rake in the ante post wagering as a protective measure against inside $. If my numbers are right they are begging you to not bet in advance. If you look at the final fixed odds in R8 today I get total probabilities of 107% and R6 of 125%. It’s like they are trying to discourage the early action.
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06-10-2022, 11:56 PM
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#98
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2018
Posts: 246
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If you follow Aussie or UK price, yes they tend to keep their overrounds higher in the pretrading and as it comes closer to post time it gets more reasonable as its less likely there are anything seriously off in odds and markets get more efficient.
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06-11-2022, 06:35 AM
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#99
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Jersey Shore
Posts: 1,189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Onesome
If you follow Aussie or UK price, yes they tend to keep their overrounds higher in the pretrading and as it comes closer to post time it gets more reasonable as its less likely there are anything seriously off in odds and markets get more efficient.
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Thank you. Makes sense from a risk standpoint
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06-12-2022, 05:48 AM
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#100
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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10 races yesterday
fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.
there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.
is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?
Allan
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06-12-2022, 10:57 AM
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#101
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Out-of-town Jasper
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 2,364
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
10 races yesterday
fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.
there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.
is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?
Allan
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Either the people betting fixed odds are much worse handicappers than the parimutuel bettors, or the people offering fixed odds are going to go broke. I do not think lower takeout on fixed odds by itself would cause the price discrepancy that has been posted here.
At any rate you better jump on the opportunity while it lasts, because I don't think it will.
__________________
“If you want to outwit the devil, it is extremely important that you don't give him advanced notice."
~Alan Watts
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06-12-2022, 03:06 PM
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#102
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
10 races yesterday
fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.
there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.
is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?
Allan
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How can this not be good for the betting public? If it's good for the betting public it's good for the horse racing industry.
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06-12-2022, 04:45 PM
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#103
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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Quote:
Originally Posted by therussmeister
Either the people betting fixed odds are much worse handicappers than the parimutuel bettors, or the people offering fixed odds are going to go broke. I do not think lower takeout on fixed odds by itself would cause the price discrepancy that has been posted here.
At any rate you better jump on the opportunity while it lasts, because I don't think it will.
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fixed odds dont work like that. as my friend from the uk states, they just take the bets. their profit is guaranteed on most races due to the vig, its just an extension of sports betting. which is hugely profitable.
the books might lose on an occasional race now and then but their profit is almost assured long term as long as they dont make pricing errors early in the betting.
Allan
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06-13-2022, 11:39 AM
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#104
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2019
Location: Clarksville, AR
Posts: 1,221
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Quote:
Originally Posted by biggestal99
10 races yesterday
fixed odds won big time delivering better prices in 9 of them.
there was a 2 horse race. both horses went off 3-5 in the mutual pools
fixed odds? one was 7-10 the other nearly 6-5.
is there any question that betting fixed odds is much better in the long run?
Allan
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Isn't that basically a 4-5% hold? Wow!
__________________
Tom in NW Arkansas
——————
”Past performances are no guarantee of future results.” - Why isn't this disclaimer printed in the Daily Racing Form?
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06-26-2022, 07:20 PM
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#105
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 4,520
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a perfect example of the power of fixed happened at Monmouth today in the 3rd.
Donyas Magic entered the gate at 4-1. once the whales got finished betting 2-1.
Matt Carothers was complained and then rationalized “thats the way it is” and said 4-1 would have been a gift.
hell Matt the horse paid 13 bucks American ( 6.5)on the fixed odds market.
nary a mention of it on TVG.
Allan
Last edited by biggestal99; 06-26-2022 at 07:21 PM.
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