having a terrible year, thinking of giving it up

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

The best quality tool we have is just above and between the ears.

And for people like me, the tool between my ears is best harnessed via a software package that let's me express and test any number of ideas and strategies, like I can when it comes to trading the equity markets.

[acorn54]

simple explanation, over time the efficiency of the parimutuel pools increase,

[crestridge]

Question: out of all the winners, what is the percentage of overlay winners and what is the percentage of underlay winners? Just to define these terms is no easy thing, but if one has a definition, I would imagine there's very few overlay winners to be had. Maybe that concept needs to be reviewed?

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by crestridge

Question: out of all the winners, what is the percentage of overlay winners and what is the percentage of underlay winners? Just to define these terms is no easy thing, but if one has a definition, I would imagine there's very few overlay winners to be had. Maybe that concept needs to be reviewed?

Like beauty, overlay is in the eye or thinking engine of the beholder.

As the saying goes, "All the winners are overlays."

[xtb]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

The best quality tool we have is just above and between the ears.

How has that tool been working out for you?

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by xtb

How has that tool been working out for you?

A hugh success. Total bet $0.00, Total return $0.00. If and when these little grey cells come up with a winning formula I'll be happy to bet 24/7 at most every track in the world.

[NellyGCM]

empathize with the original poster and want to let you know that I have had a similar stretch. In the 2 year period leading up tothe pandemic, I was netting from US horse racing the equivalent of almost 50% of my employment salary, on an annual basis. I just assumed that this success would continue for the rest of my life. I had identified tried and true angles and had a source of workout information that wasn't mainstream.

Most of my success was from UK and and European bookmakers - fixed odds wagering.

Three things happened: First, I believe the pandemic disrupted the operations/dedication/special trainer angle attributes of some formerly successful barns. Second, the drug scandal has (likely for the long term health of the game, but to the short term detriment of some horseplayers) changed the face of the game. Lastly, offshore bookmakers have a tendency to close or limit winning accounts (and this last note is a warning for US players who are looking forward to fixed odds being common in US racing in future). FWIW, I don't do arbitrage - I just have a tendency to understand lines better than the algorithm they use.

I went from pulling down relatively large amounts to suddenly being embarrassed that I can't cash a ticket, let alone find a third tier bookie to take my wager.

When most of my wagering was through parimutuel providers, I sometimes got a chance to provide feedback. "What would improve your experience at [site]?" "How could we earn more of your wagering dollars?"

My answer invariably included something like "Could you please offer a database that tracked my wagering profitability by wager type, class level, sex, age, surface, winning trainer, etc." But it has yet to happen. If it did happen I would love to bet through that provider.

Keep your head up. Drop the races for a while and when you come back, go back to hungry, small money. Find the purest bets and act like your life depended on it. Don't stray from the purest line, for awhile, until you get back your mojo. And then keep track of everything you bet and why.

It will all come back. Unless you bet fixed odds with UK bookies, that is! Once they limit you, there is no coming back!!!

[acorn54]

if memory serves me, peter benter's modeler at one time, a mr. wong, i believe, quantified with a statistical method the increasingly efficient betting pools in HK racing.

[xtb]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

A hugh success. Total bet $0.00, Total return $0.00. If and when these little grey cells come up with a winning formula I'll be happy to bet 24/7 at most every track in the world.

Keep up the good work!

[Robert Fischer]

I'm open to doing a chat or something, to go over some basics and see if our thought processes have any overlap or synergy.

There's a lot to this game. Mark Patterson's analogy of the mental game is very real.

There is specific understanding of significant things (example; your thread on some underlay early and/or loose speeds).

- - There's guys who can nearly break in ROI who just focus on (betting against) OVERBET obvious pace advantages (per your thread),

and yet there's also guys who can pull off the opposite stunt w/ focus solely on UNDERBET mid-range or longer priced loose speeds.

send a pm if you like, and we can chat for 15-30 min another day when we both have time

Originally Posted by formula_2002

A hugh success. Total bet $0.00, Total return $0.00. If and when these little grey cells come up with a winning formula I'll be happy to bet 24/7 at most every track in the world.

well... you've got the Preparation, the Discipline and the Patience...
If it's rewarding to you to work on the process, that's great. Not much different than working on puzzles.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by NellyGCM

empathize with the original poster and want to let you know that I have had a similar stretch. In the 2 year period leading up tothe pandemic, I was netting from US horse racing the equivalent of almost 50% of my employment salary, on an annual basis. I just assumed that this success would continue for the rest of my life. I had identified tried and true angles and had a source of workout information that wasn't mainstream.

Most of my success was from UK and and European bookmakers - fixed odds wagering.

Three things happened: First, I believe the pandemic disrupted the operations/dedication/special trainer angle attributes of some formerly successful barns. Second, the drug scandal has (likely for the long term health of the game, but to the short term detriment of some horseplayers) changed the face of the game. Lastly, offshore bookmakers have a tendency to close or limit winning accounts (and this last note is a warning for US players who are looking forward to fixed odds being common in US racing in future). FWIW, I don't do arbitrage - I just have a tendency to understand lines better than the algorithm they use.

I went from pulling down relatively large amounts to suddenly being embarrassed that I can't cash a ticket, let alone find a third tier bookie to take my wager.

When most of my wagering was through parimutuel providers, I sometimes got a chance to provide feedback. "What would improve your experience at [site]?" "How could we earn more of your wagering dollars?"

My answer invariably included something like "Could you please offer a database that tracked my wagering profitability by wager type, class level, sex, age, surface, winning trainer, etc." But it has yet to happen. If it did happen I would love to bet through that provider.

Keep your head up. Drop the races for a while and when you come back, go back to hungry, small money. Find the purest bets and act like your life depended on it. Don't stray from the purest line, for awhile, until you get back your mojo. And then keep track of everything you bet and why.

It will all come back. Unless you bet fixed odds with UK bookies, that is! Once they limit you, there is no coming back!!!

Interesting post and some good advice. Welcome to the forum!

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

__________


I've had a quite a few good years and believed I could be profitable betting racing

my confidence is now shaken

this year, it seems like everything I do is wrong

seems like every horse I bet fades badly in the stretch - I should post my picks so my pick can be eliminated_________________)~:\

I always did much better betting sports, but I liked racing a lot more

I don't know what the reason for this is, probably just a statistical anomaly

maybe I'll just paper bet for a while to try to figure out what's going on



.

After 50 years in this sport , I'd be questioning myself if I was winning this year



Things will turn Half S ...be patient!!

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

And for people like me, the tool between my ears is best harnessed via a software package that let's me express and test any number of ideas and strategies, like I can when it comes to trading the equity markets.

I think there are a few packages like that.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by Half Smoke

__________


I've had a quite a few good years and believed I could be profitable betting racing

my confidence is now shaken

this year, it seems like everything I do is wrong

seems like every horse I bet fades badly in the stretch - I should post my picks so my pick can be eliminated_________________)~:\

I always did much better betting sports, but I liked racing a lot more

I don't know what the reason for this is, probably just a statistical anomaly

maybe I'll just paper bet for a while to try to figure out what's going on



.

I find it necessary to look for the outliers when evaluating my results. I have found that several winners over hundreds of play could make the difference between profit and lose. Outliers are a danger to long term profits

[Not4Love]

I"ll probably get banned for mentioning this. The jockey's are clearly pulling horses at a ALARMING RATE. It's everywhere and IF YOU CAN'T SEE IT, you are hardly winning at this game.





The moderator equates horse racing to Wall st. Does he REALLY BELIEVE WALL ST ISN'T RIGGED. The difference with stocks is they have been "propped up" with free money via Government Policy. Your on your own betting thoroughbreds.









https://vanderbei.princeton.edu/Economy/