Blackjack

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

False.
This is where team play is most effective, but even an excellent counter playing solo,
who is prepared to grind it out for hours on end, can make it pay.

A shoe game where the true count rises to over +20, with less than a third of the cards remaining to be dealt, is an excellent opportunity for the player.
Suddenly, that $10-25/hand grinder, is betting $500-1000(x3).
It's "show time" for him/her. In less than five minutes, he/she is walking a winner, or loser. They are safe in the knowledge, though, that this is the time to bet big. They know that they have an edge now. It will all likely happen before floor staff even notice.

This player may have been grinding for hours to get to this point.
Or, as a team member, may have tipped-off their "big money player" that this particular shoe was now ripe for plucking. Shoe games, typically, allow mid-deck entry for play. This is not the case on single, or double deck

- How often this +20 count is going to occur and to how large of an advantage does this translates? Are these cases enough to overcome the loses? Is the ultimate advantage large enough to eliminate the gambler's ruin effect? What is the mean and standard deviation of a winning strategy? How many hands you need to play to assure a win?

- Based in my experience when a $10 per hand player is raising his bets to $1,000 he immediately enters the spot light. If he really knows what he is doing he will find himself black listed, no casino will allow him to place even a $5 BJ bet in Vegas, or in AC the deck will be shuffled after a couple of hands are dealt.

Casinos know more about BJ than any aspiring pro and are doing a very good job protecting their advantage. The early days when Thorp or Uston were able to score huge, taking advantage of the ignorance of the casino are gone forever...

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

- How often this +20 count is going to occur and to how large of an advantage does this translates? Are these cases enough to overcome the loses? Is the ultimate advantage large enough to eliminate the gambler's ruin effect? What is the mean and standard deviation of a winning strategy? How many hands you need to play to assure a win?

- Based in my experience when a $10 per hand player is raising his bets to $1,000 he immediately enters the spot light. If he really knows what he is doing he will find himself black listed, no casino will allow him to place even a $5 BJ bet in Vegas, or in AC the deck will be shuffled after a couple of hands are dealt.

Casinos know more about BJ than any aspiring pro and are doing a very good job protecting their advantage. The early days when Thorp or Uston were able to score huge, taking advantage of the ignorance of the casino are gone forever...

It would be foolish to increase that quickly. That certainly would get the attention of casino management. From what I understand, the advanced card counting methods deal mostly with learning to sense heat, and avoid it. You can be the best counter in the world but it isn't any good if you are barred.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by DeltaLover

- How often this +20 count is going to occur and to how large of an advantage does this translates? Are these cases enough to overcome the loses? Is the ultimate advantage large enough to eliminate the gambler's ruin effect? What is the mean and standard deviation of a winning strategy? How many hands you need to play to assure a win?

- Based in my experience when a $10 per hand player is raising his bets to $1,000 he immediately enters the spot light. If he really knows what he is doing he will find himself black listed, no casino will allow him to place even a $5 BJ bet in Vegas, or in AC the deck will be shuffled after a couple of hands are dealt.

Casinos know more about BJ than any aspiring pro and are doing a very good job protecting their advantage. The early days when Thorp or Uston were able to score huge, taking advantage of the ignorance of the casino are gone forever...

You're right....you will get noticed pretty quickly.
However, in the right situation you might avoid being backed-off if you play to those stakes for only a short time, and then leave. The bet variation is a bit extreme - sticking to less noticeable raises might help avoid detection.
Having to wait so long, though, for a "count rich" shoe means getting down what you can.
And, the more hands you can play in that situation (usually up to 3), the better.
Your worst case scenario here is that surveillance snaps your photo as you're leaving. You can play the chips in your pocket at another casino, or cash them out later. Even if you do get backed off, you haven't committed a crime.
You never have to identify yourself, unless you are trying to cash out more than $10K in chips in a 24 hour period.
Then they have the right to I/D you.

There is communication between casinos regarding the movements of advantage players. If you are unlucky, you might wind up on the network and have a hard time playing BJ anywhere. At that point, it's probably best to quit.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Valuist

It would be foolish to increase that quickly. That certainly would get the attention of casino management. From what I understand, the advanced card counting methods deal mostly with learning to sense heat, and avoid it. You can be the best counter in the world but it isn't any good if you are barred.

You miss my point. We are talking about a 5-10 minute window here.
When, on the rare occasion, a shoe reaches that favorable situation,
it's time to bet as big as you can on as many hands as you can, and then walk.
There's another game down the street, and if they won't let you play, there's another casino town elsewhere.
If nobody wants your action, it's time to quit.

You can't expect to count cards at a table for prolonged periods, win money, and be allowed back another time.
The only players that might get away with that are playing $5 chips, and never come under scrutiny.
If you think you have an advanced system to beat the house at BJ,
the house probably has you beaten before you even sit down.

[BlueShoe]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Working as a surveillance agent, I watch many BJ players.
The above statement covers a large percentage of them.

People ask me "Do you catch many card counters?".
I answer " Yes, quite a few."
You might think that these people are shown the door. Not usually.
Their problem is generally money management, and that's why we can let them continue to play even though we know they are counting, and that they have a good grasp of basic strategy.

My question is why bother? Not one of the SLT clubs is a good place to play. Not trying to sound sarcastic, but at your place the rules are so bad, 6-5 SD, poor pen and rules on 8D, that good counters don't bother. The yuppie geek types from the Bay Area may take a shot, but are hardly a threat to the bottom line. There is only one SLT club, as of my last visit in November, that has a SD 3-2 low limit game, and they sweat the game closely. So help me, the last time I played there, was only betting reds with a 1 to 3 spread, up only slightly, and I practically had the floorman sitting in my lap. Lake Tahoe is a wonderful place to visit, which I do once a year, but not to play Blackjack. Which is why most of my time is spent in the racebook.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by BlueShoe

My question is why bother? Not one of the SLT clubs is a good place to play. Not trying to sound sarcastic, but at your place the rules are so bad, 6-5 SD, poor pen and rules on 8D, that good counters don't bother. The yuppie geek types from the Bay Area may take a shot, but are hardly a threat to the bottom line. There is only one SLT club, as of my last visit in November, that has a SD 3-2 low limit game, and they sweat the game closely. So help me, the last time I played there, was only betting reds with a 1 to 3 spread, up only slightly, and I practically had the floorman sitting in my lap. Lake Tahoe is a wonderful place to visit, which I do once a year, but not to play Blackjack. Which is why most of my time is spent in the racebook.

You're right on there.
Which is why I resemble the "Maytag Man" at work, quite often.
Spend much of my time putting video together for police,
after clowns get arrested for stupid stuff during a drunken nightclub spree. Geesh....

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

I couldn't agree more with this.
Working as a surveillance agent, I watch many BJ players.
The above statement covers a large percentage of them.

People ask me "Do you catch many card counters?".
I answer " Yes, quite a few."
You might think that these people are shown the door. Not usually.
Their problem is generally money management, and that's why we can let them continue to play even though we know they are counting, and that they have a good grasp of basic strategy.
Many can't handle losing situations. When they get that inevitable back door beat holding a 20 (the dealer catching 21 after multiple hits), you can see smoke coming out their ears - and they start playing accordingly.
Discipline, or lack of it, is the difference between decent players and excellent ones.
In Tahoe, we have the added advantage as surveillance agents of being so quiet these days on the tables, that advantage players stick out pretty quickly. It's much easier for successful BJ players to blend in at a busy Las Vegas casino, or anywhere that's busy, than it is if you are one of the few playing black chips, or higher.

I can count down an 8-deck shoe with the best of them.
My knowledge of strategy is excellent.
Would I play BJ to supplement my income?
Under the right circumstances, I would answer yes.
Bankroll as a family provider, and my current profession, won't allow it.
Dave is right, though. It's a great game for a small minority.

Since you are a surveillance agent...please allow me to ask you a question:

If what Dave Schwartz said was right -- and it unquestionably is -- then why are the casinos so paranoid in their approach when dealing with card counters? So what if a tiny minority are capable of beating the game in a serious way; the vast majority of the counters who consider themselves proficient are simply not good enough in applying their supposed skill in a casino setting...and they cannot escape the ranks of the losers.

Why not just deal to the counters...and let the chips fall where they may? Just make sure that the betting spreads stay within acceptable limits, that's all. Don't you think the money that these "wannabe experts" stand to lose will more than make up for the money that the relatively few legitimate experts stand to win?

IMO...the casinos are missing the boat here. Blackjack is the most popular casino table game simply because of the notion that the game can be BEATEN...and the casinos are doing everything in their power to falsify that notion. THEY SHOULD BE FOSTERING IT INSTEAD! They don't need an edge against every single player out there in order to secure a healthy overall profit for themselves.

Can you imagine what would happen if the word suddenly came out of Las Vegas that the counters were free to play the game again...as long as they didn't get too greedy with their betting spreads? Every Tom, Dick and Harry who has ever attempted to count cards would suddenly flock to the casino while the liberal rules were still in effect...and the popularity of blackjack would skyrocket...along with the casino profits. Players are seldom as good as they think they are...and the money lost by the losers will always greatly outnumber the money won by the few legitimate experts. This law is so universal in its effect that it can practically be considered to be a law of nature.

There is no better advertisement for a gambling game than the belief that it can be BEATEN. If you are the casino, and you know the first thing about human nature...then you FOSTER that belief. You don't do everything in your power to falsify it.

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

You're right on there.
Which is why I resemble the "Maytag Man" at work, quite often.
Spend much of my time putting video together for police,
after clowns get arrested for stupid stuff during a drunken nightclub spree. Geesh....

H4C-

Which casino do you work at in Tahoe? Are there any good blackjack casinos in that area? I will be in that area next spring.

Great post by Thaskalos. 100% correct that letting the counters play (unless they spread too much) would be good publicity for the casinos.

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Since you are a surveillance agent...please allow me to ask you a question:

If what Dave Schwartz said was right -- and it unquestionably is -- then why are the casinos so paranoid in their approach when dealing with card counters? So what if a tiny minority are capable of beating the game in a serious way; the vast majority of the counters who consider themselves proficient are simply not good enough in applying their supposed skill in a casino setting...and they cannot escape the ranks of the losers.

Why not just deal to the counters...and let the chips fall where they may? Just make sure that the betting spreads stay within acceptable limits, that's all. Don't you think the money that these "wannabe experts" stand to lose will more than make up for the money that the relatively few legitimate experts stand to win?

IMO...the casinos are missing the boat here. Blackjack is the most popular casino table game simply because of the notion that the game can be BEATEN...and the casinos are doing everything in their power to falsify that notion. THEY SHOULD BE FOSTERING IT INSTEAD! They don't need an edge against every single player out there in order to secure a healthy overall profit for themselves.

Can you imagine what would happen if the word suddenly came out of Las Vegas that the counters were free to play the game again...as long as they didn't get too greedy with their betting spreads? Every Tom, Dick and Harry who has ever attempted to count cards would suddenly flock to the casino while the liberal rules were still in effect...and the popularity of blackjack would skyrocket...along with the casino profits. Players are seldom as good as they think they are...and the money lost by the losers will always greatly outnumber the money won by the few legitimate experts. This law is so universal in its effect that it can practically be considered to be a law of nature.

There is no better advertisement for a gambling game than the belief that it can be BEATEN. If you are the casino, and you know the first thing about human nature...then you FOSTER that belief. You don't do everything in your power to falsify it.

I think you are on to an excellent potential marketing tool for casinos.
Would it ever be adopted? Highly unlikely.

There are many factors at work here.
The corporate environment that the casino industry now finds itself in is probably the major one. When Nevada went Wall St., back in the 80s and 90s, the business changed. The bottom line number in all areas became much more important, with focus shifting to short term gain, rather than the big picture.

Given a well trained floor staff, and a knowledgeable surveillance team,
there is no way that a casino could fail in the long run by adopting your suggestion.
The reality is, though, that this doesn't exist at many casinos.
They prefer not to take chances, and will stay that way.

[DeltaLover]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

They prefer not to take chances, and will stay that way.

This is the reality and from what I can see the recipe seems to work...

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by Valuist

H4C-

Which casino do you work at in Tahoe? Are there any good blackjack casinos in that area? I will be in that area next spring.

Great post by Thaskalos. 100% correct that letting the counters play (unless they spread too much) would be good publicity for the casinos.

Like Blue Shoe said above, it's tough on the BJ player in Tahoe.
I think the only 3-2 single deck game he was referring to is at the Lakeside Inn but,
as I don't play anything but horses, I'm not certain.
Rest assured, if you vary your bets with the count, you won't last long.

I work at MontBleu (formerly Caesars).
PM me next spring, if you like.
Could always have a beer or a coffee, and introduce you to some of the locals in our race/sports books.
It's a beautiful part of the world up here

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

They prefer not to take chances, and will stay that way.

How can you not take chances...and still claim to be in the "gambling" business?

Ahhh...how I long for the days when those "gambling" places actually gambled...

[horses4courses]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

How can you not take chances...and still claim to be in the "gambling" business?

Ahhh...how I long for the days when those "gambling" places actually gambled...

Ain't that the truth?

[wiffleball whizz]

Originally Posted by horses4courses

Like Blue Shoe said above, it's tough on the BJ player in Tahoe.
I think the only 3-2 single deck game he was referring to is at the Lakeside Inn but,
as I don't play anything but horses, I'm not certain.
Rest assured, if you vary your bets with the count, you won't last long.

I work at MontBleu (formerly Caesars).
PM me next spring, if you like.
Could always have a beer or a coffee, and introduce you to some of the locals in our race/sports books.
It's a beautiful part of the world up here

I'm shocked you actually are allowed to tell people where you work....the gambling industry is being very deregulated....

You have to love what your doing if you work in surveillance...I couldn't do it as I like interacting with customers way to much...

[Dave Schwartz]

How can you not take chances...and still claim to be in the "gambling" business?

LOL - Surprising, isn't it?

I recall a conversation I had with a floorman at Circus Circus Reno back in 1984. We were discussing why the casino had a tendency to run off anyone who was betting more than about $20.

He said, "When a player comes into the pit that we have to track, there are three things that can happen. He can win, he can lose, or he can break even."

I said, "Sure. So?"

He repeated himself: "There are three things that can happen. Two of them are bad. We'd just as soon have a casino full of $2 bettors that are incapable of beating us."