R&D: Maiden Races

[Michael]

This post is to track my progress picking winners in maiden races. Purely educational for me to see where I stand. I could obviously keep records in my notebook, but I want to post my picks publically to encourage people to criticize them... or the line I'm placing on them. Mdn's are the weakest link in my game... I just don't play them or attempt to even look at them as races. I have to learn one day... might as well be now.

06/25/22 - Starting in Today's first race at Belmont Park

NY bred - Fillies - Msw 75k

| Song Parody (My value line I'll peg at 4/1 or greater)



I'm going to put $2 to win on all my picks just for action.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Michael

This post is to track my progress picking winners in maiden races. Purely educational for me to see where I stand. I could obviously keep records in my notebook, but I want to post my picks publically to encourage people to criticize them... or the line I'm placing on them. Mdn's are the weakest link in my game... I just don't play them or attempt to even look at them as races. I have to learn one day... might as well be now.

06/25/22 - Starting in Today's first race at Belmont Park

NY bred - Fillies - Msw 75k

| Song Parody (My value line I'll peg at 4/1 or greater)



I'm going to put $2 to win on all my picks just for action.

Can you tell us your process ?

So that we can criticize you more

[Michael]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Can you tell us your process ?

So that we can criticize you more

At current, I'm more or less just taking recognition of workouts and gate schooling. Specifically looking for roughly 40 Furlongs and 2 gate works. (Arbitrary - but it's my current baseline.) The whole "finished 2nd or 3rd last out" winning more than their fair share is kind of meaningless... the odds are baked into cake in those situations and everyone see them.

Otherwise, I'm not re-inventing the wheel for everything else... just using my judgment and avoiding trainers and jockeys as I typically would do. As for breeding I'm aware of the obvious sires but not a pedigree specialist by any means.

34 Furlongs - 2 Gate works - Kelly Breen: Good with 2 YO's (16%) - 17% first start - Jose up. The horse has foundation, been schooled in the gate, trainer good with 2 yo's and first time starters and David has the ml at 9/2. I honestly would only consider betting on the 1,4,5 and 6.... so even at 25%... that's 3/1... I think 4/1 will reward me for running my money into Todd and Repole's 200k purchase / Mott's - bolt'd'Oro (the hot sire that others are talking about atm 6 wins.)

The bottom line: was I just eliminated all horses except 4 of them... and figured 4/1 was reasonable.

[Bustin Stones]

Those are fine choices. I would add 7 who hit the board and adds blinkers.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Bustin Stones

Those are fine choices. I would add 7 who hit the board and adds blinkers.

That's reasonable... in open company too. What pushed me off was primarly the 0/6 record of the trainer for 2 YO's, and the anemic workout schedule. (my baseline guides are atm a work in progress) The whole blinkers on - maybe I should have included as a contender.

I guess another hole in my game is shippers from both parx. finger lakes and Maryland. appreciate the post... I'm certainly not afraid to air out my knowledge with regards to racing... I lack so much that I can use help with things like maidens.

[ranchwest]

When considering furlongs worked, I only go back 40 days. Going back a long way can include breaks in the work schedule.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

When considering furlongs worked, I only go back 40 days. Going back a long way can include breaks in the work schedule.

Noted, I know what you mean... I've followed or stable mailed plenty of maidens and something always happens. Having a cut-off seems logical.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Michael

This post is to track my progress picking winners in maiden races. Purely educational for me to see where I stand. I could obviously keep records in my notebook, but I want to post my picks publically to encourage people to criticize them... or the line I'm placing on them. Mdn's are the weakest link in my game... I just don't play them or attempt to even look at them as races. I have to learn one day... might as well be now.

06/25/22 - Starting in Today's first race at Belmont Park

NY bred - Fillies - Msw 75k

| Song Parody (My value line I'll peg at 4/1 or greater)



I'm going to put $2 to win on all my picks just for action.

right on mike!!!

but its a tough one when you have no database or software to use...

but # of workouts and trainer is best way to start

[Michael]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwmRQ0PBtXU

Second day on the job

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Michael

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwmRQ0PBtXU

Second day on the job

Awesome!!!!


Now dont blow it....

Some advice....


With Maidens......Don't play obscure tracks

I find that Class A tracks get the best lot ..Why?

They have big purses like BEL SA WooD GP

Keep note of that

Mike

PS- People don't like red boarding

[Michael]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Awesome!!!!


Now dont blow it....

Some advice....


With Maidens......Don't play obscure tracks

I find that Class A tracks get the best lot ..Why?

They have big purses like BEL SA WooD GP

Keep note of that

Mike

PS- People don't like red boarding

Fair enough, I'm not going to get into the red boarding topic. I'll just say that I appreciate the words of wisdom about the obscure tracks.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

PS- People don't like red boarding

My initial knee jerk response was to not waste my time in defense of the prior pick-3 post. Nevertheless, I just don't follow or accept the line of logic that my posting of a winning ticket is in poor form or shows an actual lack of social grace. The term "redboarding" in general just seems like a politically correct term that's used to have others conform to some random un-written norm rooted in nonsense. People don't like it? I mean call the Queen of England, some uncouth heathen is eating horderves with the big fork.

Anyway, I started this thread to document my picks of maiden races and chose to post them here so I could receive feed back. So far everyone has been extremely helpful with their comments. I'm going to continue on my path and finish posting a small subset of 15 total races and see where the trees fall.

Thurs - Bel Race #1

I think it's fairly obvious that the most likely winner is Cowichan: the Wesley Ward runner out of post 2. I'll take 4/5 or higher. The honest truth is I'm out of my comfort zone playing maidens to begin with. On top of that... I have no clue how any horse took to churchills turf course. I think the race being on the inner is a boon for this one. Actually, kind of like the 5 a bit, but the brazillian mare made me question the decision to go against Ward in this spot. Nothing too creative but is where I landed.



Then, in the 5th:
Olympic Dreams at 2/1 or higher.... does that sound about right? Just seems like Christophe has this one ready.

After 1 Bet results:
Bet: ($2)
Collected: $10
Net: $8

[Michael]

Belmont Friday Race 5 - 2yo

Win contenders
mainly due to post position I tossed the Ward horse

I'm going to at least have a plan.

My line
at 5/1 or higher
at 9/2 or higher
at 9/2 or higher
at 9/2 or higher

I'm expecting to bet the 6 & 7

After 2 Bets results:
Bet: ($4)
Collected: $10
Net: $6

Truth be told, in the breeders cup one of "my best bets" of the two days, was bc I thought Golden Pal was a extremely vulnerable favorite. My bankroll got really punished for that one. Ever since, I've likely had too much respect for Wesley Ward entries. (especially after this past spring meet at Keeneland) In the same vein I really couldn't knock Cowichan, as the only other horse I thought would vie was the Nevin horse: Fourway stop. Figured Wesley's horse was better than 50% to win and I was just wrong to not factor in Dutrow's horse with the Brazilian Mare. My 4/5 likely should have been much higher... and at that point I should tossed the Ward horse and put my money on Michelles horse or Dutrows. My conditional bet didn't go through at 4/5 as Cowichan was bet down to 2/5.

As for Olympic dreams... that was a huge failure in that I lacked complete respect for a firster to go 9f at first asking. I over compensated bc of the flashy breeding and the training. I'll chalk up that one... learn my lesson and move on

So far, I lack respect for horses being asked too much at first asking. My pedigree knowledge is severely deficient and I'm over compensating in areas bc I don't have the information to make better decisions. (I need to hold on to straws I do have a grasp on) At current I don't think pps alone is enough for ME to make a serious bet on mdn races. I likely need more info one way or another.

[Michael]

Sat, July 2

Bel: Race 5 mdn 90k @ 8.5f on the inner w/ rails at 27

Pre-coffee line:
Breakwater at 5/2 or Higher
Internal Capital at 3/1 or Higher
Capensis at 4/1 or Higher

This was my line as of Sat morning - pre coffee. That said, instead of repeating a mistake I made with Olympic Dreams. I'm going to just peg my line on Breakwater and just ignore Chad & Todd's first time starters. So I'm only playing Breakwater at 5/2 or higher for my actual bet.

After 3 Bets results:
Bet: ($8.00)
Collected: $34.60
Net: $26.60

[Michael]

07/03/22 - Belmont Race 1 - 2yo going 5.5 F

My betting line for this race:
9/2 (never getting)
3/1
5/1

I'll try and beat the and expect to play the 3&5.

The rollout of expensive 2 year olds... I'm sure there's people who have an edge betting a race like this... I'm not one of them.

Pedigree:
Mendelssohn is 1 for 7 so far, Ray Handal 0 for 8, 38% ITM with 2 year olds. worked 30 F, 1 out of the gate
Violence is 2 for 3, Pletcher 24 for 73 (33%) W, 62% ITM, 23F, 2 out of gate
good magic is 3 for 7, McGaughey 3 for 20 (15%), 40% ITM, 28F, 3 out of the gate
Tapwrit is 1 for 6, Rudy Rod 6 for 45 (13%), 44% ITM, 28F, no gate works?
Speightstown is 1 for 3, Pletcher 24 for 73 (33%) W, 62% ITM , 39F, 2 gate works
Pioneer of the Nile (N/A), Carlos Martin 2 for 11 (18%) 45% ITM , 22F, 2 gate works

I'm going to lean on the pedigree stats and cut the off the bat. The pps show no works out of the gate and will somehow pass the starters. Going to assume this is a glorified gate work, with Tapwrit's being 1 for 6...while the small sample size, I'm going to argue tapwrits are going to need time to develop.

My second cut is the I've heard Ray Handal's horse is training well and he thinks highly of this one. However, it's hard to argue the above stats of 1 for 7, and zero for 8 with 2 year olds. The 1 work out of the gate is fine. The morning line odds have me looking else where for value.

That leaves me with 2/3/5/6

Was a huge fan of No Parole... he had an unreal action and just looked the part of a race horse. I'm going to leave the as a contender.
The I wanted to discount bc McGaughey typically gives his horses time to learn on their own. This one has 3 bullet works and Kendrick up... I think you have to respect this one.

Giant work tab and Saez in the irons... this is the only one with a pair of five furlong works. Saw a you-tube video with this one... he's huge. I'm going to respect this one bc of the larger odds. even though he's likely training for high hope later on in life.

I'm going to let this one beat me... the 10k price tag in a group like this is enough for me to pass.

After 4 Bets results:
Bet: ($10.00)
Collected: $34.60
Net: $24.60

I actually liked my play yesterday and am happy with the logic. Trying to not be results oriented on the 2 million dollar pletcher horse that won. I think my bet was fine in that spot and I'll continue to discount first timers going long.