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06-23-2022, 09:31 AM
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#46
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,613
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The FBI is politically corrupt. Almost everything they say or do must be considered biased, spun, an outright lie, or partial truth.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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06-23-2022, 09:35 AM
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#47
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Actor
War is "an intense armed conflict between states, governments, societies, or paramilitary groups such as mercenaries, insurgents, and militias." Those participating in the Jan 6 attack on the Capital were, at the very least, insurgents. We all heard Trump tell them to "fight like hell." Ergo, Trump was making war upon the United States and thereby committing treason according to the Constitutional definition. No matter how many you post that fact will not change.
And you have made it quite clear that you approve of the attack on the Capital.
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I'm happy your delusions are on full display for all to see and enjoy for years to come.
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06-23-2022, 01:54 PM
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#48
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Near Lexington, KY
Posts: 3,246
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I'm happy your delusions are on full display for all to see and enjoy for years to come.
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Exactly.
You'd think this Election Cycle is going bad for Democrats...or something. Straight up empty-headed Lunacy.
__________________
Just when you least expect it...just what you least expect-The Pet Shop Boys.
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06-23-2022, 04:09 PM
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#49
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 1,819
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really
These guys should really have their heads split open to let Trump out to get some air --he has been stuck in there for a very long time
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06-23-2022, 04:36 PM
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#50
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,716
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06-24-2022, 12:52 PM
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#51
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: DC
Posts: 147
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Some understanding of statistics would be helpful
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Link to the ABC News/Ipsos poll:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-pol...t-following-it
According to the Statista website there were approximately 168.31 million registered voters in the US during 2020.
Doing some quick math:
545/168,310,000 = 3.238072604e-6
Or, maybe this way is easier to visualize:
545/168,310,000 = 0.000003238072604
There are approximately 35,800 thoroughbred races in my 2021 database.
(35,800) x (3.238072604e-6) = 0.11592
or:
(35,800 races) x (3.238072604e-6) = 0.11592 races
Fyi, 0.11592 races is roughly the same as a single horse from a 9 horse field.
Imo, the statement by the authors of the USA Today article "Almost six out of 10 Americans want former President Donald Trump criminally charged in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot" has about the same statistical accuracy I'd have if I created a model for betting thoroughbreds after randomly selecting a single horse from a 9 horse field and using that as my development sample.
It might be an interesting exercise.
But the sample size is way too small to make accurate unbiased predictions about future events.
-jp
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It would be useful for those who seek success betting on races to have some understanding of statistics.
http://www.wral.com/they-asked-only-...ple-/13507173/
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Cratman
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06-24-2022, 01:03 PM
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#52
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cratman
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06-24-2022, 01:05 PM
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#53
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: DC
Posts: 147
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Some understanding of statistics would be helpful
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jeff P
Link to the ABC News/Ipsos poll:
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-pol...t-following-it
According to the Statista website there were approximately 168.31 million registered voters in the US during 2020.
Doing some quick math:
545/168,310,000 = 3.238072604e-6
Or, maybe this way is easier to visualize:
545/168,310,000 = 0.000003238072604
There are approximately 35,800 thoroughbred races in my 2021 database.
(35,800) x (3.238072604e-6) = 0.11592
or:
(35,800 races) x (3.238072604e-6) = 0.11592 races
Fyi, 0.11592 races is roughly the same as a single horse from a 9 horse field.
Imo, the statement by the authors of the USA Today article "Almost six out of 10 Americans want former President Donald Trump criminally charged in connection with the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot" has about the same statistical accuracy I'd have if I created a model for betting thoroughbreds after randomly selecting a single horse from a 9 horse field and using that as my development sample.
It might be an interesting exercise.
But the sample size is way too small to make accurate unbiased predictions about future events.
-jp
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It would be useful for those who seek success betting on races to have some understanding of statistics.
http://www.wral.com/they-asked-only-...ple-/13507173/
__________________
Cratman
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06-24-2022, 01:27 PM
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#54
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,646
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why you post the same thing twice bro?
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06-24-2022, 02:07 PM
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#55
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: JCapper Platinum: Kind of like Deep Blue... but for horses.
Posts: 5,291
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Actually, he has a point.
Creating a poll that measures public opinion and modeling the likelihood of a horse winning a race are two completely different things.
Just as the authors contend in the article he cited:
Poll accuracy does see diminishing returns as sample size increases.
So I admit I used a bad argument in my post.
That said:
I think the vast majority of Americans have moved on from January 6th, and I don't believe for one second that 60% of Americans actually want to see Trump criminally charged.
I also think a sample size of 545 is way too small for the ABC New/Ipsos poll USA Today used as the basis for their article.
Asking likely voters who they plan on voting for: CandidateA or CandidateB is one thing.
But asking about criminal charges for a polarizing figure like Trump has a high likelihood of eliciting a politically charged emotional response.
Getting an accurate read on something like that requires a much larger sample size.
That's just my opinion.
-jp
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__________________
Team JCapper: 2011 PAIHL Regular Season ROI Leader after 15 weeks
www.JCapper.com
Last edited by Jeff P; 06-24-2022 at 02:13 PM.
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06-24-2022, 02:47 PM
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#56
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: DC
Posts: 147
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Sample bias
Sample bias may be more of an issue than sample size. Supporters of Trump may distrust polls and therefore be reluctant to participate. This could be the reason so many of the 2020 polls were off. It is probably very difficult for pollsters to control for an unknown group who decline to participate.
A classic example of sample bias were the Dewey Truman polls only of those who had telephones (the rich of their time).
__________________
Cratman
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06-25-2022, 08:54 AM
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#57
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 216
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Trump
Putting America first with 2.oo gas and very little inflation is OK with me!!!
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06-25-2022, 09:45 AM
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#58
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cratman
Sample bias may be more of an issue than sample size. Supporters of Trump may distrust polls and therefore be reluctant to participate. This could be the reason so many of the 2020 polls were off. It is probably very difficult for pollsters to control for an unknown group who decline to participate.
A classic example of sample bias were the Dewey Truman polls only of those who had telephones (the rich of their time).
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The greatest issue relating to poll accuracy is the formulation of the question itself. Something as mundane as the changing of sentence structure of a question (no change in actual words) can have a meaningful change in results.
Last edited by tucker6; 06-25-2022 at 09:48 AM.
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