my take on the belmont stakes

[boys at tosconova]

my take on the belmont stakes


wtb

lone speed in a race where you don't even know what the line up will be be. throw in the best jock in the game and you're even closer to pay dirt. horse looks fast, horse should get the distance. if the horse looks bothered or washed out that might change things but i view the the ark derby as an easy scratch through. i don't like the low odds and many won't play because they want that ever sought after and made up "value" and will list reasons that he may not be a true G1 type of horse. the same peeps will also find fault with him winning by 10L in the pp as well...lol. i think it would be foolish not to use this horse in the top 3 spots.

skippy

liked him as a ls in the preak and that breakout race didn't happen. the horse ran okay and had some problems that the form doesn't show you. the horse actually showed some early speed, raced wide and was also blocked turning for home. the jox change should help and the horse might be in a prime spot throughout the race. remember. he only lost 3L in md and ev in the wood and was coming. it might be hard to win, but i think it's completely possible to run 2nd/3rd at long odds.

nest

seem like many are looking at the horse to get a trip and be in good position. that may be, but is this horse even as good as secret oath? and if he isn't how will the horse win? horse will need more vs the boys. i think the horses ceiling is 2nd/3rd in this race and most of that is because of possible positioning. i wouldn't use the horse in any other way.


rich strike

was reading a few articles of this workouts. in separate paragraphs the writer equated him to secretariat and american pharoah...lol

why does every tom, dick and harry latch on to workouts in the triple crown races as a major factor to bet?. this is the 3rd time i'm writing this. the horse lost ground in the stretch in everyone of his races after his maiden win leading to the KD. his racing style is not conducive to winning this race. you want to pat the horse on the back for winning the kd and bet him. i would only use underneath and definitely not to win. there will be no pace to close at in here.

creative minister

ran a nice preakness. does this race look like one where he'll take another step? imo,..no. he showed that he belonged but that race isn't making he jump up and down and want to bet this horse thinking he'll take another step forward. the horse will be lower odds as well in here. + he has run a TC prep schedule and this is his 3rd race. that's not good imo. sure, he might finish 2nd/3rd but many in here have a stake to that claim.

mo don

before drilling into it. if he horse had a better racing style i would be more apt to be gung ho about him winning. as you saw from the derby he still couldn't even hit the board in those fractions. sure he came wide, but imo the race was disappointing. outside of that he looks fast enough to win here. looks like he likes course and is a ny horse. what is he gonna do, try and grind them down from almost last?.. only reason i'm conflicted is because of his racing style. can't argue with anyone using him in any of the top 3 spots.

golden.

seems like the horse is running evenly. not getting better or worse. but he just seems like a notch below. will need to run better than evenly in here. maybe this horse decides to show early foot like he did it in the BG. seems like the horse is in this race to try and get a check more than menacing.


barber road

horse just runs pretty well every time out. sure the pace was fast in the derby, but md didn't exactly hammer him coming for home. many don't remember his ark derby was a very troubled trip as well. getting rosario could be huge in a race like this. the horse also has shown some speed early in his career and might decide to try and get some better position as well. the field is light, horse has been close in many races. seems like a live long shot that people want to come up with in big races. i think he's 1-3 horses that can possibly win. and at 10-1 or better.

[MarylandMan]

Very nice assessment...my thoughts back to you:

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

my take on the belmont stakes


wtb

lone speed in a race where you don't even know what the line up will be be. throw in the best jock in the game and you're even closer to pay dirt. horse looks fast, horse should get the distance. if the horse looks bothered or washed out that might change things but i view the the ark derby as an easy scratch through. i don't like the low odds and many won't play because they want that ever sought after and made up "value" and will list reasons that he may not be a true G1 type of horse. the same peeps will also find fault with him winning by 10L in the pp as well...lol. i think it would be foolish not to use this horse in the top 3 spots. Up 8 lbs today. Fades to finish 3rd or 4th. He'll have to beat me.

skippy

liked him as a ls in the preak and that breakout race didn't happen. the horse ran okay and had some problems that the form doesn't show you. the horse actually showed some early speed, raced wide and was also blocked turning for home. the jox change should help and the horse might be in a prime spot throughout the race. remember. he only lost 3L in md and ev in the wood and was coming. it might be hard to win, but i think it's completely possible to run 2nd/3rd at long odds. Agree

nest

seem like many are looking at the horse to get a trip and be in good position. that may be, but is this horse even as good as secret oath? and if he isn't how will the horse win? horse will need more vs the boys. i think the horses ceiling is 2nd/3rd in this race and most of that is because of possible positioning. i wouldn't use the horse in any other way. Classy filly bred to love 1.5 mi. Fast enough? Not on paper but can improve against this bunch. The Oaks loss could be because of several factors. Oath got a better trip as well. Pletcher? Curlin baby? Lots to love. What I DON'T like is the switch to J Ortiz while I stays with Mo. J never on her in a race and it's not a jockey upgrade.


rich strike

was reading a few articles of this workouts. in separate paragraphs the writer equated him to secretariat and american pharoah...lol

why does every tom, dick and harry latch on to workouts in the triple crown races as a major factor to bet?. this is the 3rd time i'm writing this. the horse lost ground in the stretch in everyone of his races after his maiden win leading to the KD. his racing style is not conducive to winning this race. you want to pat the horse on the back for winning the kd and bet him. i would only use underneath and definitely not to win. there will be no pace to close at in here. Won't win with my money. Form good, can get a share.

creative minister

ran a nice preakness. does this race look like one where he'll take another step? imo,..no. he showed that he belonged but that race isn't making he jump up and down and want to bet this horse thinking he'll take another step forward. the horse will be lower odds as well in here. + he has run a TC prep schedule and this is his 3rd race. that's not good imo. sure, he might finish 2nd/3rd but many in here have a stake to that claim. His last Beyer can beat all of them. 3rd to the two horses who would be overwhelming faves if they raced in Bel. McPeek extremely high on him and I don't buy the 5th race in a short time nonsense. A MUST use for 1st or 2nd. M

mo don

before drilling into it. if he horse had a better racing style i would be more apt to be gung ho about him winning. as you saw from the derby he still couldn't even hit the board in those fractions. sure he came wide, but imo the race was disappointing. outside of that he looks fast enough to win here. looks like he likes course and is a ny horse. what is he gonna do, try and grind them down from almost last?.. only reason i'm conflicted is because of his racing style. can't argue with anyone using him in any of the top 3 spots. Agree

golden.

seems like the horse is running evenly. not getting better or worse. but he just seems like a notch below. will need to run better than evenly in here. maybe this horse decides to show early foot like he did it in the BG. seems like the horse is in this race to try and get a check more than menacing. I know that even I can run faster. Last place. But will bet a few bucks to win just in case lol.


barber road

horse just runs pretty well every time out. sure the pace was fast in the derby, but md didn't exactly hammer him coming for home. many don't remember his ark derby was a very troubled trip as well. getting rosario could be huge in a race like this. the horse also has shown some speed early in his career and might decide to try and get some better position as well. the field is light, horse has been close in many races. seems like a live long shot that people want to come up with in big races. i think he's 1-3 horses that can possibly win. and at 10-1 or better. Just a hard trying colt who finishes well every time. I don't think he's fast enough but can't knock anyone who wants to take a shot here with Rosario, a HUGE upgrade, riding him and that Tapit pedigree line.