Tdn Monday - 2/5 Pays 12.80

[BMustang]

In Thistledown's 5th Race Monday I saw a phenomena I've never seen before in my 45 years at the track.

The 7 horse is bet to 2/5 all through the pre-race betting and while the gate is being loaded. During the course of the race, this overwhelming favorite goes to 5-1. He wins by over 10 lengths and pays 12.80 to win and $2.10 to place.

The exacta with the second choice pays $6.20.

When they put the $12.80 up we all thought they had made a mistake and that the win payoff should have been $2.80, not $12.80, but after verifying it with the mutual clerks, the horse did indeed pay $12.80 to win. The ensuing Pick-3 of $8.20, $12.80, and $4.20 returned $26.20 for $2 (in line with the middle horse being 2/5.)

In the 8th and final race of the day a horse that had been solid at 8/5 and 2-1, wins and pays 9/2 = $11.60 with the post-time favorite running second and the perfecta paying $14.20 for $2.

Any thoughts, or explanations????

[tzipi]

My guess is the late "gate money" by a person was poorly bet. Plus, I don't think it takes much there to change odds based on handle but I could be wrong.

[mikeb]

twice in one nite...hmmm..hanky panky at the windows

[pandy]

That's bizarre. The horse won by 16 lengths and all of the other 6 horses in the race were 9-2, so almost every horse in the race had the same odds. The winner actually was the highest odds in the race.

[Jeff P]

HANA Blog - Monday 05-21-2012 Thistledown R5:
http://blog.horseplayersassociation....12-tdn-r5.html

I was watching the betting pools at TDN 5. As the race started there was around $13k in the win pool most of which was bet on #7 who was 1-5.

Part way through the race, the odds changed tremendously with 30-1 and 50-1 shots dropping to 9-2 and the 1-5 favorite jumping to 5-1.

Here is a snapshot of the final pools:

----- ----  ------ --  ----- --  ----- --
Horse Odds     WIN  %  PLACE  %   SHOW  %
----- ----  ------ --  ----- --  ----- --
#1     9/2  15,449 14    133  3  2,089 11
#2     9/2  15,357 14    184  5  2,093 11
#3     9/2  15,227 14     43  1  2,074 11
#4       4  15,987 15    530 14  2,341 12
#5     9/2  15,342 14    234  6  2,109 11
#6     9/2  15,478 14    291  7  2,198 12
#7       5  13,431 12  2,243 61  5,164 28
-----------------------------------------

As you can infer from the totals, very late in the wagering, some robotic wagering program must have mistakenly bet $15k to win and $2k to show on all horses except the #7.

-jp

.

[Maximillion]

Guessing there might be days at Thistledown where the total handle wont be more than this one race.Very strange.

[castaway01]

That's very strange, "I've never seen that before" strange. Sure, we've seen crazy bets get cancelled and the odds swing wildly, but the way the betting went here, that's a new one. I think Jeff had the only logical explanation---if only those types of mistakes were made every day and our 2-5 shots went off 5-1....we'd all be rich.

[Red Knave]

Following is the Interval odds as tracked by HPIBet. At 1 minute to post the odds on the #7 were 13-1.
This has to be a whale computer glitch.

# M/L	20	17	15	12	10	 7	 5	 4	 3	 2	 1	 0	Final	
1 12	 5	 5	 6	 7	 8	 6	 7	 6	 6	 8	 4	 9/2	 
2 4	 6	 7	 9	 9	 9	 10	 11	 13	 15	 21	 4	 9/2	 
3 10	 19	 9	 11	 12	 13	 17	 19	 23	 23	 30	 4	 9/2	 
4 9/2	 25	 30	 25	 16	 15	 7	 4	 5	 7/2	 4	 4	 4	 
5 5	 7	 7	 7	 6	 7	 9	 8	 9	 10	 15	 4	 9/2	 
6 7/2	 12	 15	 18	 16	 18	 22	 18	 13	 10	 9	 4	 9/2	 
7 2	 1/2	 2/5	 1/5	 2/5	 2/5	 2/5	 1/2	 1/2	 3/5	 2/5	 13	 5	 
Win Pool:$209	 $248	 $290	 $309	 $333	 $463	 $515	 $613	 $769	 $1,275	 $81,425 $109,561

[Maximillion]

Originally Posted by Red Knave

Following is the Interval odds as tracked by HPIBet. At 1 minute to post the odds on the #7 were 13-1.
This has to be a whale computer glitch.

# M/L	20	17	15	12	10	 7	 5	 4	 3	 2	 1	 0	Final	
1 12	 5	 5	 6	 7	 8	 6	 7	 6	 6	 8	 4	 9/2	 
2 4	 6	 7	 9	 9	 9	 10	 11	 13	 15	 21	 4	 9/2	 
3 10	 19	 9	 11	 12	 13	 17	 19	 23	 23	 30	 4	 9/2	 
4 9/2	 25	 30	 25	 16	 15	 7	 4	 5	 7/2	 4	 4	 4	 
5 5	 7	 7	 7	 6	 7	 9	 8	 9	 10	 15	 4	 9/2	 
6 7/2	 12	 15	 18	 16	 18	 22	 18	 13	 10	 9	 4	 9/2	 
7 2	 1/2	 2/5	 1/5	 2/5	 2/5	 2/5	 1/2	 1/2	 3/5	 2/5	 13	 5	 
Win Pool:$209	 $248	 $290	 $309	 $333	 $463	 $515	 $613	 $769	 $1,275	 $81,425 $109,561

Almost a 6 figure glitch

[Rapid Grey]

Some bettors will make a large wager early in pools to show their pick as a prohibitive favorite, especially at smaller circuit tracks, theory being that the public will back off a short price play and the favorite's price will float up through the course of wagering.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by Rapid Grey

Some bettors will make a large wager early in pools to show their pick as a prohibitive favorite, especially at smaller circuit tracks, theory being that the public will back off a short price play and the favorite's price will float up through the course of wagering.

That's what I thought. He was just the heavy favorite with very little money in the pool. The large bets came in late.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by tzipi

That's what I thought. He was just the heavy favorite with very little money in the pool. The large bets came in late.

But if you looked at the pools as posted by Jeff or the odds ranges posted here as well, that's too simple to explain what happened in this case. Nearly identical bets---$15,000 bets, not $100---were posted on all of the other horses in the field, to the point where the original favorite went from 1-2 to 13-1 in a flash and the others all dropped to 4-1. If you can tell me when you've ever seen that before in the history of racing, please list the race and date. There WAS one big early bet, but the ridiculously big late bets on the rest of the field, including $90K in win wagers that lost---were the extremely unique part.

[menifee]

Investigation launched:

http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...ays-fifth-race

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by castaway01

But if you looked at the pools as posted by Jeff or the odds ranges posted here as well, that's too simple to explain what happened in this case. Nearly identical bets---$15,000 bets, not $100---were posted on all of the other horses in the field, to the point where the original favorite went from 1-2 to 13-1 in a flash and the others all dropped to 4-1. If you can tell me when you've ever seen that before in the history of racing, please list the race and date. There WAS one big early bet, but the ridiculously big late bets on the rest of the field, including $90K in win wagers that lost---were the extremely unique part.

You're right. Didn't see that looking at it quickly. Strange indeed.

[tzipi]

Originally Posted by menifee

Investigation launched:

http://www.drf.com/news/thistledown-...ays-fifth-race

In the video caller says, "Inquiry sign has been posted looking into the stretch run of race 5". He should said, the Inquiry sign has been posted looking into the shady betting on race 5.