Beyer: Tampa in freefall - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

cj · 02-23-2012, 09:32 AM

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Long regarded as a minor-league operation, Tampa averaged a stunning $4.57 million per day in wagers.

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General manager Peter Berube said that wagering has dropped by about $500,000 a day – an abrupt reversal after years of growth.

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Two crucial issues are involved. One is a factor that every handicapper confronts virtually every day. Another is a more corrosive problem that is going to affect most of the U.S. racing industry.

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Even the weakest of Ness’s runners go off at low odds, and handicappers ought to relish the prospect of playing against horses who are overbet, but we have all learned this lesson: Don’t. Ness wins regularly when logic suggests he shouldn’t – with horses like Escort.

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The real crisis, however, is yet to come: In 2011 the size of the U.S. foal crop plummeted to an estimated 24,900.

http://www.drf.com/news/beyer-tampa-...-its-ascension

thaskalos · 02-23-2012, 10:00 AM

Fewer horses, fewer players, and more "super-trainers".

The unholy trinity that has brought the great game to its knees...

And no capable leadership in sight to effectively deal with these growing concerns.

Pity...

maddog42 · 02-23-2012, 10:01 AM

Shorter fields are coming. Less product. Less betting. Fewer racing days. Probably fewer tracks. This is depressing, but inevitable.

JBmadera · 02-23-2012, 10:01 AM

With GP in full swing I almost never even look at TAM. Wonder how much the dispute with TVG cost them.

cj · 02-23-2012, 10:05 AM

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Originally Posted by maddog42

Shorter fields are coming. Less product. Less betting. Fewer racing days. Probably fewer tracks. This is depressing, but inevitable.

Inevitable, but probably for the better (bettor, too). 10 or 15 tracks of great fields has to better than 50 tracks that suck.

Robert Goren · 02-23-2012, 10:12 AM

As long as the tracks can stay afloat by taking slot money for purses, racing will stay alive in some way. It won't be pretty though. This may be a bit of an extreme view, but this is what I see. 4 horse fields of 5k claimers running for purses of 40k with a total pool bet on the race of 35k. That is certainly the direction we are headed.

carnivalday · 02-23-2012, 10:26 AM

I see it a little differently. I race in Florida, infrequently at Tampa and GP, mostly at Calder. I live in Ocala. Theres TONS of horses here. The issue is not a shortage of horses. Even with a foal crop of 24,000 in 2011, thats still a lot of 2 year olds for 2013. The issue is a shortage of owners.

Ive been offered so many broke 2 year olds its scary. Offered as in, take them, get them to the races, I can't afford it. I did take one, but I can't afford any more, I have 6 horses at Calder and just can't do anymore.

I dont believe its a shortage of horses, I really dont.

maddog42 · 02-23-2012, 10:28 AM

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Originally Posted by cj

Inevitable, but probably for the better (bettor, too). 10 or 15 tracks of great fields has to better than 50 tracks that suck.

We need to form an elite paramilitary organization to steal equine resources from Europe.
EPOSTER for short. I nominate CJ to head up this noble effort since he has military experience. I will interview Female cadets.

Robert Goren · 02-23-2012, 10:33 AM

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Originally Posted by carnivalday

I see it a little differently. I race in Florida, infrequently at Tampa and GP, mostly at Calder. I live in Ocala. Theres TONS of horses here. The issue is not a shortage of horses. Even with a foal crop of 24,000 in 2011, thats still a lot of 2 year olds for 2013. The issue is a shortage of owners.

Ive been offered so many broke 2 year olds its scary. Offered as in, take them, get them to the races, I can't afford it. I did take one, but I can't afford any more, I have 6 horses at Calder and just can't do anymore.

I dont believe its a shortage of horses, I really dont.

One thing is for sure, there is shortage of horses being run. Slot-aided purses not have really help that despite all the promises to the contrary.

David-LV · 02-23-2012, 10:37 AM

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Originally Posted by maddog42

Shorter fields are coming. Less product. Less betting. Fewer racing days. Probably fewer tracks. This is depressing, but inevitable.

Inevitable and Irreversible because of the people that run this industry.

_________
David-LV

Jeff P · 02-23-2012, 10:39 AM

Not mentioned: Higher signal fees this year vs. last.

-jp

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cj · 02-23-2012, 10:46 AM

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Originally Posted by carnivalday

I see it a little differently. I race in Florida, infrequently at Tampa and GP, mostly at Calder. I live in Ocala. Theres TONS of horses here. The issue is not a shortage of horses. Even with a foal crop of 24,000 in 2011, thats still a lot of 2 year olds for 2013. The issue is a shortage of owners.

Ive been offered so many broke 2 year olds its scary. Offered as in, take them, get them to the races, I can't afford it. I did take one, but I can't afford any more, I have 6 horses at Calder and just can't do anymore.

I dont believe its a shortage of horses, I really dont.

I'm sure cost has something to do with it, but the foal crop numbers don't lie.

Robert Fischer · 02-23-2012, 10:46 AM

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Originally Posted by JBmadera

With GP in full swing I almost never even look at TAM. Wonder how much the dispute with TVG cost them.

Are they off the TVG menu this meet ?

cj · 02-23-2012, 10:47 AM

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Originally Posted by Jeff P

Not mentioned: Higher signal fees this year vs. last.

-jp

.

The effect? Lower rebates I'm guessing? I don't think it lost any of the ADWs, just not on television as often.

JBmadera · 02-23-2012, 10:48 AM

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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

Are they off the TVG menu this meet ?

No, you can bet via TVG, but they aren't televising/pimping the meet.