Class vs. Speed

[Tom]

Originally Posted by keilan

Dave once again – solid post

Class = speed (velocity) / stamina (speed carried over distance) / and heart ( no explanation required)

I'm assuming that everyone can tell the difference between cheap speed vs class based on the above. Raise your hand if still unclear

Uh.....

[Brian Flewwelling]

This is a very interesting thread, even tho it has contibuters like myself with no first hand knowledge of horse herds (or heards in the case of runners).

There are two aspects to the herd instincts that have not been directly addressed here:

1. I am not sure the horse considers the group in the race as his (her) current herd... rather the groom, trainer, and jockey are more important members of the horse's herd! ??

2. Dominant Stallions do NOT lead the rush from danger, they tend to trail and push along other herd members. So if you set a herd of horses off to race with out jockeys, the mares would finish first, and the dominant stallion near last.

I would guess that horses view a race is an activity of the small (personal) herd 'playing' against other herds. The running by the horse is done at the request of the jockey, who is associated with the trainer (the boss of the small herd). Some horses have the game better figured than others, and running talent helps.

To make racing more herd-natural we could change the game. Gather the competitors in a group at the starting area, then chase them around the track with a couple of mechanical cougars/lions mounted on Boss Hogg cadillacs (like dog racing in reverse). The winner in male races being the horse finishing immediately infront of the Caddies. The winner in female races, or for young males, will be the one in front of the pack. (then to keep it real, those horses passed by the Cadillacs will be sent to the Alpo plant! or maybe limited to lower class races, where the Caddy's cruse control is set lower by 1 or more speed points )
Minimum race length=2miles .......... or maybe NOT!
I guess it won't sell in a big way!

I would be interested in the reaction to the numbered points above from Horse(wo)men who have spent time in the presence of horses, not just in the stands at the races.

[twindouble]

Brian;

Very interesting! Wonder if the same thing applies to humans? Seems to me all the studs and tough guys in school were at the back of the class. My brother told me he didn't get any attention in college untill he seperated himself from the class by sitting 6 empty rows back by himself and ended leading the class in discussion challenged by the professor. Maybe that's were the saying watch out for your back came from.

[JohnGalt1]

An example of class I learned from a losing experience.

In the late eighties when I started going to the track at Canterbury Timeless Prince who was a win machine who'd been winning 6f in 1:11 was favored against a horse who'd just finished 2 lengths behind in a 1:10 race. I was looking forward to a longshot win.

Timeless Prince won in 1:10 1/5.

Class is running fast enough to win.

Scott's Performance Class Rating is the way I figure class when I handicap and I give class 60-40 weight in routes and turf races, and 40-60 weight in sprints.

[Hosshead]

Originally Posted by The Judge

I agree with Grifter I would just say it in a different way. I think horses know in a general way who a superior horse is. I think they know without having to race. .

Class is one factor that the horses know more about than we do !!
We try to quantify it with our ratings in an attempt to find out what the horses already know ! - (pecking order).
After using many class numbers from various sources, I find that most are really "performance" ratings", and many are just not right.

Even though I hardly ever buy the DRF anymore - I'm amazed at how much clearer I can see the class picture in a race when I simply look at the DRF (class part of the) pp's., and see what type (conditions) of races the horse has been running in. With no "class(performance)" ratings to cloud the issue. Then you know that even though Horse A (10k claimer) had the same speed figure as Horse B (16k claimer), Horse B will (probably) beat horse A.
I'm talking about races from the same track.
Comparing different tracks is another story. Another "pecking order".

It seems that the "type" of race (horses have run in) listed in most SW pp's , is so abbreviated that I can't get a good "picture" of the previous race "levels". For example most sw pp's don't have whether a horse was entered to be claimed OR NOT in Optional claiming races. But you can tell when looking at the DRF. And I'm not a big supporter of the drf, in general.
There doesn't seem to be a source that can quantify the class Levels (ie:conditions of the race), as easily as you can see them in the (drf) pp's.
Todays Racing Digest is the closest I've found. But it's only for Calif.---Hoss

[xfile]

Originally Posted by keilan

Dave once again – solid post

Class = speed (velocity) / stamina (speed carried over distance) / and heart ( no explanation required)

I'm assuming that everyone can tell the difference between cheap speed vs class based on the above. Raise your hand if still unclear

I think you are on to something there. Speed, stamina and heart can all be quantified. Speed by speed ratings, Stamina by total pace ratings and Heart by the lifetime win% of the horse. I think this is great!. I've been looking for a way to come up with my own class ratings and this helps alot. And by using the most current competitive pacelines and all figures the horse's class rating would either improve or decline as his numbers do.

[keilan]

Xfile – here’s something to think about – quantify speed with pace, quantify stamina with either %E or the ratio between the pace-number and speed-number, quantifying heart using lifetime PP’s is extremely delicate and requires tons of common sense in it’s application of aged horses vs young horse, horses that have changed barns, coming off long layoffs etc. Heart is the most difficult variable of the three to accurately measure on mass and for that reason should be weighted much less in your overall formula.

Then there’s always the intangibles -- barn and jock changes – good luck X

Guys do yourself a favor and forget about this herding thing – they’re already in the numbers.

TOM --YOU'VE BEEN BREAKING ME UP SINCE 2001

[xfile]

Originally Posted by keilan

Xfile – here’s something to think about – quantify speed with pace, quantify stamina with either %E or the ratio between the pace-number and speed-number, quantifying heart using lifetime PP’s is extremely delicate and requires tons of common sense in it’s application of aged horses vs young horse, horses that have changed barns, coming off long layoffs etc. Heart is the most difficult variable of the three to accurately measure on mass and for that reason should be weighted much less in your overall formula.

Then there’s always the intangibles -- barn and jock changes – good luck X

Guys do yourself a favor and forget about this herding thing – they’re already in the numbers.

TOM --YOU'VE BEEN BREAKING ME UP SINCE 2001

I think if you take into consideration the horse's lifetime win% and current year win% and if he's old enough the previous year's win% it would work. Weighted more heavily on lifetime win% because if that decrases or increases it would obviously depend on what the horse is doing currently.

[twindouble]

Hosshead;

I'm inclined to discount the herding and pecking order theories in determining class or a horses ability to compete. We all know the gene pool does and always will be the foundation for quality competive horses but in the real world that's just as much a crap shoot as wagering on 10 first time starters.

What I can say is we humans have a way of minipulating just about everything we get our hands on including horses to a point where we can get the best out of them and any other animal. Milkshakes not included. What most trainers have going for them is all about this topic due to the fact there's no absolute structure when it comes to class and racing conditions. For example we as handicappers make assumptions about class be it graded races, Alw or claiming and the natural thing to do is to make comparisons, now and historical like comparing Joe Louis to Mohammed Ali, even in boxing we can in our own opinion conclude most today don't compare to the so-called greats, including the trainers. So in this fluctuating environment good trainers a able to place their horses, they are handicapping the conditions like we should be doing. (trainer intent). To carry the boxing anology further, now we have many divisions and more weight classes to compare. The good trainers will slect the division and compitition to win and make money. Getting back to minipulating, throw in pace and yes, the jock.

In conclusion, I'm saying a good trainer can take a inferior genetic horse and teach him or her how to compete at levels they wouldn't otherwise,
regardless of their instinctive behavior.

Good Luck,

T.D.

[cnollfan]

I forget where I read this quote (I think it was in a Beyer book and he was quoting someone else), but it sums it up for me: "It's not how fast they run, it's how they run fast."