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10-29-2020, 10:35 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’m really not sure what the purpose of this entire thread is all about. I mean who really cares about entries getting bet heavily near post time. Even if it were found to be meaningful in some way what could you do about it? Rush to attempt to make a hasty bet (with lots of potential for a costly error)? And then all I’m seeing is chalk. It might be another story if Formula was hitting long shots with some regularity. If you’re after the chalk you’d better have an unusually high hit frequency to realize any substantial profit margin.
I have notice this current racing season (HONG KONG racing) a lot of horses that have gone BROWN or GREEN have certainly produced winning efforts. NITRO has been UNUSUALLY silent on this current trend at HONG KONG.
I won’t deny that entries getting bet down in Hong Kong by 20% (going Green) or by 50% (going Brown) shouldn’t be considered, but more often than not, these entries don’t always win. That’s not to say that they won’t show up some where in the money. The really nice thing about HK betting is that you normally DON’T have to wait to near post time to see these late moves. So the opportunity to advantage of these events is nearly always there.
I’m not sure which threads or posts of mine that Hopbet is viewing because whenever there’s some unusual tote board activity it’s nearly always mentioned when it results in a positive outcome.
Perhaps of some simple links to my recent HK posts and their review will prove me out:
SAT 10-24 : http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=161124
SUN 10-18: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=161026
SUN 10-11: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160912
SUN 10-4 : http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160790
Etc., Etc.
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Have to agree with Nitro about heavy late money is almost always too late for us to get or change a bet without it being an error-prone scramble. I'd rather be on a horse, at 2 or 3 MTP, that has shown "unusually" higher than expected money flow. Then when some group hammers another horse into favoritism, my pick stays steady or rises higher in the odds. That late horse will often beat my horse, and as Formula has shown in many examples, they often lose too.
The way you identify higher than expected money flow is the crux of the matter.
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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10-31-2020, 01:50 PM
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#17
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Gulfstream West Race 4
#1 went from 17% in the win pool to 30% and won
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-04-2020, 09:14 PM
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#18
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Mountaineer Park* Race 6
#9 WENT FROM 11.5% OF THE WIN
POOL UP TO 19% AND WON
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-07-2020, 11:09 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
10-10-2020, GG R4
LATE MONEY ON THE #7 MADE IT THE FAVORITS. 5/7 EXACTA WINS
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In order to have consistency, 'late money' must have a specific time.
So, in your estimation, what is "late money".
On occasion I look at tote patterns. Depending on the track, pools can sometimes double in size with less than one minute to "off".
Now, post time means nothing because some jurisdictions are more strict than others with regard to starting races 'on time'.
So, when I decide to take a close look at late money, I define late money from the instant the first horse is loaded. That makes the late money period more uniform.
Your definition of late money is...?
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11-07-2020, 11:16 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
I’m really not sure what the purpose of this entire thread is all about. I mean who really cares about entries getting bet heavily near post time. Even if it were found to be meaningful in some way what could you do about it? Rush to attempt to make a hasty bet (with lots of potential for a costly error)? And then all I’m seeing is chalk. It might be another story if Formula was hitting long shots with some regularity. If you’re after the chalk you’d better have an unusually high hit frequency to realize any substantial profit margin.
I have notice this current racing season (HONG KONG racing) a lot of horses that have gone BROWN or GREEN have certainly produced winning efforts. NITRO has been UNUSUALLY silent on this current trend at HONG KONG.
I won’t deny that entries getting bet down in Hong Kong by 20% (going Green) or by 50% (going Brown) shouldn’t be considered, but more often than not, these entries don’t always win. That’s not to say that they won’t show up some where in the money. The really nice thing about HK betting is that you normally DON’T have to wait to near post time to see these late moves. So the opportunity to advantage of these events is nearly always there.
I’m not sure which threads or posts of mine that Hopbet is viewing because whenever there’s some unusual tote board activity it’s nearly always mentioned when it results in a positive outcome.
Perhaps of some simple links to my recent HK posts and their review will prove me out:
SAT 10-24 : http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=161124
SUN 10-18: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=161026
SUN 10-11: http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160912
SUN 10-4 : http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160790
Etc., Etc.
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LIke the avatar...I grew up watching the Tonight Show with Johnny Carson.
The Amazing Carnak was one of the best bits.
Here's one I will never forget..
"A stale Danish, A 1965 Dodge, Don Rickles.....Carnack holds up envelope....."An Old Tart, an Old Dart and an Old Fart"......So funny, I spit out beer
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11-08-2020, 10:31 AM
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#21
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thespaah
In order to have consistency, 'late money' must have a specific time.
So, in your estimation, what is "late money".
On occasion I look at tote patterns. Depending on the track, pools can sometimes double in size with less than one minute to "off".
Now, post time means nothing because some jurisdictions are more strict than others with regard to starting races 'on time'.
So, when I decide to take a close look at late money, I define late money from the instant the first horse is loaded. That makes the late money period more uniform.
Your definition of late money is...?
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from my note #5
"I download the tote board data while the horses are somewhat away from the gate, perhaps 1 min before loading. I define the horse that takes late money if my top pick, the favorite, becomes the second choice and the late money goes on the new favorite."
By the way I'm not trying to "handicap" the late money, I just happen, on occasion to notice it .
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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11-08-2020, 08:04 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 7,510
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Quote:
Originally Posted by formula_2002
from my note #5
"I download the tote board data while the horses are somewhat away from the gate, perhaps 1 min before loading. I define the horse that takes late money if my top pick, the favorite, becomes the second choice and the late money goes on the new favorite."
By the way I'm not trying to "handicap" the late money, I just happen, on occasion to notice it .
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I don't handicap on late money either. I can't.
Typically late money comes from high volume players. I just watch it to see where the money is going.
Sometimes the late money is spot on.
If anything, my tote board reading goes to exotics and will pays on horizontal bets. Those can be quite helpful..
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11-11-2020, 12:38 PM
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#23
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what an easy game.
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 43,096
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Parx Racing* Race 2
#8 horse wins
it had 14% of the $40078 win pool then , 53% of a win pool that grew up to $104462
__________________
Peace on earth, good will to all
GOD BLESS AMERICA
" I pass with relief from the tossing sea of cause and theory to the firm ground of result and fact"
Winston Churchill
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