How do you value workouts after layoffs?

[JohnGalt1]

One thing I hate is having a horse with no or short 3f workouts beat me.

I want a horse off a month or longer to show some workouts to let me know it is fit.

A bad/slow horse that I would not play, with no workouts I can take since even with workouts I would not play it.

I know many workouts are not listed, some work on a farm.

My question3--

If you like a horse off a layoff with no workouts, do you play him?

Do you play it with your second and/or third choice.

Ignore it, And play it as a prime bet?

Put in a double or pick 3, just in case it runs to it's pps?

Thanks.

[therussmeister]

I don't mind a horse showing only short works if it hasn't races in two months.

For a longer layoff I almost always bet against them and accept the fact they will occasionally beat me. I do keep in mind how often I have seen the trainer win with these types, but even then I would rather pass than bet these horses.

I think the crowd puts too much emphasis on trainer statistics with little regard for how a trainer prepares his layoff winners, so I feel these types of winning horses are virtually always underlays.

[dlivery]

How are the work outs for the return and the horses past performance with lay offs from a INJURY

Why lay a horse off?

[thaskalos]

I couldn't care less what a particular trainer's overall layoff stats are; I want to know what his training regimen is with each individual horse in his care. When assessing the winning chances of a particular laid-off horse...I look at how this horse has been campaigned by the trainer in the past, and whether or not the trainer likes to "fire fresh" with this particular horse. Lifetime past-performances are handy in this regard...because the needed proof is often beyond the readily-available PPs.

Just because a trainer has impressive layoff stats doesn't mean that he tries to win "first-off-a-layoff" with every horse in his care.

[biggestal99]

My way of doing it is that if a horse off a layoff ran well previously off
a layoff I can ignore the work tab entirely.

Allan

[JohnGalt1]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

My way of doing it is that if a horse off a layoff ran well previously off
a layoff I can ignore the work tab entirely.

Allan

I look at this too. But the good race off a lay off might have come from having a series of 4-5 f workouts, but today no workouts.

Different situation.

The guessing game causes me to pass many races I would play if I knew the condition of the horse.

As Thaskalos wrote, some good trainers doesn't try to win every time.

[MPRanger]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

One thing I hate is having a horse with no or short 3f workouts beat me.



If you like a horse off a layoff with no workouts, do you play him?

Do you play it with your second and/or third choice.

Ignore it, And play it as a prime bet?

Put in a double or pick 3, just in case it runs to it's pps?

Thanks.

Horses have to show a workout after a layoff.
The question should not be "is he fit?" but " how much is he paying?"
Then, "is that worth a risk/bet?"

If he's paying 8 to 5 then it may not be worth a bet. If he's paying 8 to 1, that may be different.

[Robert Fischer]

I value the price more than the workout stuff in these scenarios.

If I'm playing a guessing game, I want an even bigger value edge than usual.

[ultracapper]

Big key is determiming why the layoff. What was the trainer trying to accomplish with the layoff? Freshening? Healing? Additional education? Start there, then determine whether the layoff was a strategy to get the best out of the horse in the first start back. WOs can give you a hint what the purpose of the layoff was. No works is a huge red flag, IMO, regardless of what the reason for the layoff was.

[JohnGalt1]

I'm handicapping FG Thursday 9/14 and found a perfect example of why I started this thread.

Race one--#8 Diva's Ransom 7-2 ML

Last raced Oct 21

Last workout Feb 12

Trainer is 4 for 38 this year.

3 for 11 27% 46-90 day layoff

When I handicap a layoff horse I use the best/fastest/most representative race for a pace line.

July 5, off since may 19, she won 5f at Evd in 58.3.

That race she also won off a lay off since he last race was Feb 12 for that race.

I believe fillies and mares usually cab race well with fewer and or shorter works, but id do not trust it.

I am passing the race.

[dlivery]

Pass The Race

Nice

I like your thinking

Have you a preference of the pace line you can excuse beyond looking past the last line.


Im just asking

dlivery

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by JohnGalt1

I'm handicapping FG Thursday 9/14 and found a perfect example of why I started this thread.

Race one--#8 Diva's Ransom 7-2 ML

Last raced Oct 21

Last workout Feb 12

Trainer is 4 for 38 this year.

3 for 11 27% 46-90 day layoff

When I handicap a layoff horse I use the best/fastest/most representative race for a pace line.

July 5, off since may 19, she won 5f at Evd in 58.3.

That race she also won off a lay off since he last race was Feb 12 for that race.

I believe fillies and mares usually cab race well with fewer and or shorter works, but id do not trust it.

I am passing the race.

I'd have no problem tossing the 8. She hasn't hit the board in 5 races at this distance. Six other horses in this race have won or placed at 6f. When she won after a layoff at 5f, she was dropping from 10000 to 5000 State Bred races. If she beats me, hats off to her trainer, and move on.

[dlivery]

Im asking this because I believe you only have a last race performance to deter-mind when to give the line a + Plus or - Minus and move on

[JohnGalt1]

Michael Pizolla in his books advises to always use the most recent race--------unless you shouldn't.

If a horse has a recent race--I used to use 28 days, now 35 (thank you trainers who don't run their horses,) I always make a pace/speed rating.

I will use pace lines further down if there is a great, or two good reasons where the top line may be excused. But most of the time I use the most recent for dirt races. It's less of a guessing game to use the most recent.

Higher class, trouble, claimed, distance, up close early after a lay off, off track, etc. are reasons.

I do not consider turf races when handicapping for dirt, or vice versa. In fact I cross them out. Also races less than 4.5f because they more closely resemble quarter horse races, and are virtually pace less.

But when I do use a line other then the last, it is more of a guessing game how it will run today.

I played Turf Paradise today. (I always feel a little dirty playing a track with such high take outs.) I bet 3 of 8 races.

As an example--Race 3 $16k claiming

#2 Reconsidering last ran in OP Clm $20k pace line 92/88/180.

All his races were higher class down to eight races ago 7/2/17. So I also used 7/14 race at Alb was (89/93/184) which I wrote under in parentheses.

#5 Four times Lucky last race was $16 Op Clm, pace line 85/80/165

Next line down 9/3 at Cby was (95/85/180).

The two won, and the 5 finished second, but based on the last pace line, he had no right to place.

I bet the 2 to win and double the win bet to place and it paid $7.00 and $3.00

Pizolla also advised to use all turf races in selecting a pace line.

This greatly increased my win pct. on turf races.

Race 7 turf, clm $20k, the best pace lines from each horse were--

1) 85/84/169
2) 82/94/176
3) 82/90/172
4) 78/95/173
5) 80/92/172
6) 77/98/175
7) 87/96/183
8) 87/92/179
9) 82/96/178

The 7 won and paid $11.40. It's last race was 1:37.1 and lost by 10 lengths. The line was 78/86/164 it was 16k op clm, I rate 2 levels higher.

I lose my share of all kinds of races, but these steps give me reasons to play or avoid races.

[dlivery]

Yes Im not looking for trouble but it seems to logical to be of a concern about the horses last line that was a good a effort.
Class wise yes but just boggles my mind how the public bets.

Thanks again for all your insight