My Preakness Analysis (Even More Shameless Self Promotion)

[NWCTBob]

Originally Posted by GARY Z

Great Pick, PA.

I had your next 4 picks boxed in exactas, tri's supers, and convinced my
office these were the live horses based upon "value" bets.


I tried to cancel Sway Away when he arrived at the gate washed out, and
was looking to substitute Dance City/Midnight interlude into the super.,but
was blocked.


Ps , the owners of "S" pick up a bonus of 500k. for the win.


Great day for Mr Romans, who also won with Paddy O' Prado.

Midnight Interlude, another disappointment race, now this for sure tells me the caliber of Calif. 3yo to the east.

[FantasticDan]

Beyer: A worthy Triple Crown aspirant should have caught Shack:

http://www.drf.com/news/preakness-sh...alented-rivals

[mostpost]

I liked Animal Kingdom with Dialed in or Mucho Macho Man, but your analysis got me looking at Shackleford. In the end I went with Animal Kingdom to win and a $5 exacta box AK with Shack.

[Light]

PA

Congrats on having the winner but I have to point out something in your track bias analysis that I don't agree with.

You were right about the closers bias at CD,but your speed bias analysis at PIM is dubious. On the front page you said:

Let's look at where the winners were on dirt after a half-mile in each race at Pimlico yesterday:

First, First, First, Second, Second, Fourth, Fourth

The firsts and seconds were all sprints and the two fourths were routes and that is why I disagree with your analysis. There was no speed bias in routes at PIM.

My point is the analysis for Shackleford's win should be based more on his gameness against CD's closer biased surface than a pseudo speed bias at PIM. He only finished 1 length behind Nehro in the biased KD while shortening up at Pim. Even on Preakness day,the 3 dirt routes had the winners at 7th,5th and 4th at the 1/2 mile call (your method),so there really was no bias in routes that day as well. The reason Shackleford won is he is a very underrated, very game horse on the front end who does not need a bias and didn't have one.But good call.

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks Light...I think...

[PaceAdvantage]

Thanks for all the kind words in this thread...they're much appreciated...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Thanks for all the kind words in this thread...they're much appreciated...

Let's see what you come up with for the Belmont Stakes. After the Preakness...our expectations have risen considerably...

[Tom]

Good point Thask....Belmont is his home track. I am looking for at least a $40 winner next time.

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by Light

PA

Congrats on having the winner but I have to point out something in your track bias analysis that I don't agree with.

You were right about the closers bias at CD,but your speed bias analysis at PIM is dubious. On the front page you said:



The firsts and seconds were all sprints and the two fourths were routes and that is why I disagree with your analysis. There was no speed bias in routes at PIM.

My point is the analysis for Shackleford's win should be based more on his gameness against CD's closer biased surface than a pseudo speed bias at PIM. He only finished 1 length behind Nehro in the biased KD while shortening up at Pim. Even on Preakness day,the 3 dirt routes had the winners at 7th,5th and 4th at the 1/2 mile call (your method),so there really was no bias in routes that day as well. The reason Shackleford won is he is a very underrated, very game horse on the front end who does not need a bias and didn't have one.But good call.

Interesting and fine piece of research.

How can we know if the 7th, 5th and 4th races at the 1/2 call were faster than normal? Wouldn't that tell us if the track was playing fast for routes?

[Blenheim]

I took another look at the data here and this is what I found at Brisnet Track Bias Stats:

Pimlico

Week Totals - 5/13 - 5/19

Dirt Routes

Races 11
% Wire 36%
Run style: E++ - % races won: 64%
Run style: E/P+ - % races won: 18%
Run style: S - % races won: 18

Winner Average Beaten lengths: 1st call 1.6 - 2nd call 1.4

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I took another look at the data here and this is what I found at Brisnet Track Bias Stats:

Pimlico

Week Totals - 5/13 - 5/19

Dirt Routes

Races 11
% Wire 36%
Run style: E++ - % races won: 64%
Run style: E/P+ - % races won: 18%
Run style: S - % races won: 18

Winner Average Beaten lengths: 1st call 1.6 - 2nd call 1.4

there's a ton of crap races in that group. I show a bias exists, but not as pronounced as that listed above. I noticed that in the cheaper races they were coming back more often......... just like it should be

[Light]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

Interesting and fine piece of research.

How can we know if the 7th, 5th and 4th races at the 1/2 call were faster than normal? Wouldn't that tell us if the track was playing fast for routes?

You misunderstood. I'll start over. On Preakness day there were 3 other routes run before the Preakness that were on dirt.The races were:

2nd race. The winner was 7th,nine lengths back at the 1/2 mile point.

4th race. The winner was 5th,seven lengths back at the 1/2 mile point

10th race. The winner was 4th, 2 1/2 lengths back at the 1/2 mile point.

If anything,there was a closers bias in routes on dirt that day. This suggests that should Shackleford really get a speed biased track,he'd win by double digits.

[overthehill]

Good call. I didnt play the race but I did not think the derby field was that good. Clearly the others were even worse. With 20/20 hindsight the logical play was to box AK and Shackleford as being the two best horses coming out of the derby. If there were no new superstars coming out of the field they figured to run 1-2 and they did. That was a terrific exacta payout for a very logical outcome.

[toetoe]

Superb pick, PA. PRN would rate it a solid 10.

I was slightly queered on the winner by Steve Crist's KD postmortem. (:Wiping egg from face.) Also, a pro here in Las Vegas swayed me with the explanation that the Florida Derby paceline was all about post position. I accurately predicted that on Preakness Day Flashpoint would outsprint Shackleford early, but the former soiled the bed.

[RXB]

Originally Posted by toetoe

I accurately predicted that on Preakness Day Flashpoint would outsprint Shackleford early, but the former soiled the bed.

The former is bred through and through to be a pure sprinter, and the sooner his connections get real on this point and return him to races of 7f or shorter, the sooner he can start performing well again.