a lot to like about Vino Rosso here...

[dilanesp]

1. Pletcher knows how to win this race.
2. Pletcher is deadly with the 5 weeks spacing between races.
3. Horse has 2 wins in NY including the Wood.
4. Bred to go 1 1/2 miles- by Curlin (2nd beaten a nose in the Belmont), Touch Gold (Belmont winner) on the female side along with 1 1/2 mile horses Street Cry and Giant's Causeway. Dam is a half to Commissioner, who lost a photo finish in the Belmont.
5. Will run from off the pace should get a pick-up-the-pieces trip if Justify tires.

[Robert Fischer]

looks to be clearly the next best horse in the race after Justify, and he won't be 2nd choice in the betting.

Race-flow and pace is a concern.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

looks to be clearly the next best horse in the race after Justify, and he won't be 2nd choice in the betting.

Race-flow and pace is a concern.

I think he is second choice, but maybe I am giving to much credit for the amount of money the gen public wagers on this day.

[Fred Mertz]

Guess where his owners are from?


Yes, New Yawkers.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

I think he is second choice, but maybe I am giving to much credit for the amount of money the gen public wagers on this day.

Bravazo is going to be 2nd choice.

Wayyyy too much cognitive dissonance for anything else.

He finished ahead of Vino Rosso in the Derby(that alone makes it very tough for the public to say that he isn't better than Vino Rosso), and then he finished 2nd to Justify in the Preakness (that makes the public think he is a prime candidate for 2nd in the Belmont), and he finished only a 1/2 Length behind Justify in the Preakness (reinforces the idea that he's the clear 2nd best, and some people feel that Bravazo 'almost won' the Preakness or was a 1/2 length away from winning the Preakness).


Bravazo will be a clear 2nd choice.


Then you've got Hofburg who will be a very hot 'wiseguy' horse. (Wiseguy in the contemporary sense that he's got a few obvious positives and the public has already committed to betting him regardless of the fact that their action is going to result in an underlay(see My Boy Jack KYD-- - Not in the older meaning that he's some under-the-radar contrarian choice that only certain handicappers will figure out).
Hofburg had that dream trip in the Florida Derby which gave him a 2nd place finish to the loved Audible. He then had a delayed trip behind traffic in the Derby and closed fairly well into a great setup for a belated 7th(Obvious traffic always triggers bettors), and he was continued to be ridden through the gallop-out which he won(when a horse wins the gallop out and stretches out he takes money).

Vino Rosso should be a reasonable price unless unexpectedly heavy sharp money comes in for him. It would surprise me if he were 2nd choice.

[Redboard]

Been working lights out too! Lot to love about this guys chances, but, as we all know it's all about the price.

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by Fred Mertz

Guess where his owners are from?


Yes, New Yawkers.

We won't hold that against him.

[classhandicapper]

He'll be on my tickets.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

1. Pletcher knows how to win this race.
2. Pletcher is deadly with the 5 weeks spacing between races.
3. Horse has 2 wins in NY including the Wood.
4. Bred to go 1 1/2 miles- by Curlin (2nd beaten a nose in the Belmont), Touch Gold (Belmont winner) on the female side along with 1 1/2 mile horses Street Cry and Giant's Causeway. Dam is a half to Commissioner, who lost a photo finish in the Belmont.
5. Will run from off the pace should get a pick-up-the-pieces trip if Justify tires.

6. Johnny V, he can give him the same exact ride as he did Rags to Riches and Union Rags, and big Money Mike can give Justify the same ride he did Paynter...

7. Almost ideal energy distribution and ability to run a flat pace line.

Unfortunately, he will likely be second in the betting, no higher than 3rd I wouldn't think.

[clicknow]

I'm not sure about Vino Rosso yet. On paper, he's got the goods. After I heard about his "extreme nerves" before the KY Derby, (shaking, etc.) then the fact that Pletcher said they were still scooping mud out of his eye sockets and nose for 3 days afterwards, I have to give some consideration to the "emotional conformation" of this horse and probably observe him in the paddock and post parade first. This is one of those things that numbers and PPs won't help with, but somebody like Kerry Thomas would understand. I have to know this horse is "keen to race" again after his bad exerpeinces of late. Horses do remember stuff.

A toss for the win however.

[PhantomOnTour]

He was my 2nd choice in the Derby, and immediately after I told a friend that he'd be the one to deny Justify the Triple Crown in the Belmont.
Let's hope so

[metro]

Originally Posted by clicknow

I'm not sure about Vino Rosso yet. On paper, he's got the goods. After I heard about his "extreme nerves" before the KY Derby, (shaking, etc.) then the fact that Pletcher said they were still scooping mud out of his eye sockets and nose for 3 days afterwards, I have to give some consideration to the "emotional conformation" of this horse and probably observe him in the paddock and post parade first. This is one of those things that numbers and PPs won't help with, but somebody like Kerry Thomas would understand. I have to know this horse is "keen to race" again after his bad exerpeinces of late. Horses do remember stuff.

A toss for the win however.

Here is a link to Kerry Thomas' 2018 Derby report. Some interesting comments about Vino Rosso.

http://www.thtbloodstock.com/THT_Pat...D144%20(4).pdf

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by metro

Here is a link to Kerry Thomas' 2018 Derby report. Some interesting comments about Vino Rosso.

http://www.thtbloodstock.com/THT_Pat...D144%20(4).pdf

yes I purchased the KT report before the derby. He was not on my derby ticket because of it.

"While we like his classic distance profile, we think there is a good chance some of his old habits could re-emerge in the chaos of the 20-horse Derby field. ....Vino Rosso took a step forward in the Wood Memorial and could be on a growth pattern. His classic distance profile looks fine, but
we do not rank him with the elite herd dynamics in this field at this time"


Not saying vino won't hit the ticket, but I just cannot see him winning the Belmont. Thomas said horse didn't seem like nervous type, but like I said, bystanders told me he was shaking like a leaf in the paddock, and then I read about all the mud that had to be scraped out of his eyes and nose......bad memories for the horse IMHO if we are talking "emotional conformation" which is what Kerry Thomas writes about,not numbers or pacelines, etc..

Not to mention, Wood is least productive prep for Pletcher going forward, historically? And IMHO, Vino is nothing at all like Commissioner, who I was wagering with both hands the day he ran the BEL, sort of like how Smart Strike is nothing like Seattle Slew.

What would be great is if Mr. Thomas can come back after the derby and re-evaluate the horses.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by clicknow

yes I purchased the KT report before the derby. He was not on my derby ticket because of it.

"While we like his classic distance profile, we think there is a good chance some of his old habits could re-emerge in the chaos of the 20-horse Derby field. ....Vino Rosso took a step forward in the Wood Memorial and could be on a growth pattern. His classic distance profile looks fine, but
we do not rank him with the elite herd dynamics in this field at this time"


Not saying vino won't hit the ticket, but I just cannot see him winning the Belmont. Thomas said horse didn't seem like nervous type, but like I said, bystanders told me he was shaking like a leaf in the paddock, and then I read about all the mud that had to be scraped out of his eyes and nose......bad memories for the horse IMHO if we are talking "emotional conformation" which is what Kerry Thomas writes about,not numbers or pacelines, etc..

Not to mention, Wood is least productive prep for Pletcher going forward, historically? And IMHO, Vino is nothing at all like Commissioner, who I was wagering with both hands the day he ran the BEL, sort of like how Smart Strike is nothing like Seattle Slew.

What would be great is if Mr. Thomas can come back after the derby and re-evaluate the horses.

Has Thomas gotten anything right since he stumbled upon Animal Kingdom, it was Animal Kingdom right?

If Vino Rosso was freaked out, Johnny was able to get him to relax pretty impressively straight out of the gate. He was able to get and hold mid-pack all the way around, relying on the very thing that you have to, to win the Belmont, the ability to run evenly at given rate for a route of ground. And this is despite Johnny saying he never took hold of the surface.

Your point is taken though, horses have memories. If an experience is bad enough, it ruins them.

For me, I see his Derby as half full, not half empty. With little urgining at all, he maintained position despite physical and pyschological conditions that were clearly difficult for him.

[Robert Fischer]

step 1 toss the underlays B̶R̶A̶V̶A̶Z̶O̶, H̶O̶F̶B̶U̶R̶G̶
step 2 toss the bums B̶A̶N̶D̶U̶A̶, F̶R̶E̶E̶ ̶D̶R̶O̶P̶ ̶B̶I̶L̶L̶Y̶
step 3 work backwards from the pace scenarios

FAIR RACE
ST JUSTIFY
ND VINO ROSSO
RD TENFOLD, BLENDED CITIZEN, SEAHENGE, GRONKOWSKI
....

EXTREME FORWARD FAVORING
ST JUSTIFY
ND TENFOLD, NOBLE INDY, RESTORING HOPE
RD VINO ROSSO
....

TIRING RIVALS
ST JUSTIFY
ND VINO ROSSO
RD BLENDED CITIZEN, GRONKOWSKI, SEAHENGE