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Old 05-20-2018, 01:21 PM   #31
clicknow
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All i heard before Preakness is that Chad Brown said they would treat it as a match race. To me, that meant he was going to SEND.


The truth of the matter is: Let's look at Chad Brown's actual stats: dirt horses returning on 2 weeks rest.

5 or so years and I think it's 0%?


Perhaps look at his own performance here instead of blaming the jockey. Brown is much better with turf and sometimes you just gotta be realistic aobut where your strengths lie.

i.e. I love playing trifectas, but tracking my every wager over 3-4 years shows my strong point is longshots and exactas. So, when I keep playing trifectas, I don't do so well.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:52 PM   #32
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All i heard before Preakness is that Chad Brown said they would treat it as a match race. To me, that meant he was going to SEND.


The truth of the matter is: Let's look at Chad Brown's actual stats: dirt horses returning on 2 weeks rest.

5 or so years and I think it's 0%?


Perhaps look at his own performance here instead of blaming the jockey. Brown is much better with turf and sometimes you just gotta be realistic aobut where your strengths lie.

i.e. I love playing trifectas, but tracking my every wager over 3-4 years shows my strong point is longshots and exactas. So, when I keep playing trifectas, I don't do so well.
But his horse clearly ran a very good race, the 2 weeks had no effect. This race spacing stuff has done nothing but hurt the sport, I am so glad he ran the horse.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:52 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Spalding No! View Post
I tend to agree with this, that sending Good Magic was not so much the best strategy for Good Magic to win the Preakness than it was the best strategy to keep Justify from winning the Preakness (i.e., setting it up for someone else).

Mike Smith didn't ride the 2016 BC Classic like that, with a loose California Chrome on the lead, and theoretically Arrogate had the speed to take it to him early. He didn't, sat behind, played some cat-and-mouse, and ground out the win at the wire. And some even point to the effort as evidence of greatness.

In 2015, I think it was Lezcano who decided to send Frosted into a protracted duel with American Pharoah in the Travers. The plan worked that day. It kept American Pharoah from winning, and it set it up for someone else to garner the awards...
Post had something to do with Arrogate. It is different if you can track from the outside. Wasn't Arrogate the 10? Good Magic didn't really have that option. How many lengths behind would he have been if he let Justify go and worked his way to the outside?
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:54 PM   #34
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I didn't see it, but I read today that GM odds dropped from 5-1 to 7-2 at last second, or maybe later? Anyone see that?
I don't remember the specifics but I was surprised when 7-2 showed during the running.
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Old 05-20-2018, 01:57 PM   #35
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Post had something to do with Arrogate. It is different if you can track from the outside. Wasn't Arrogate the 10? Good Magic didn't really have that option. How many lengths behind would he have been if he let Justify go and worked his way to the outside?
He was the 10 horse. I was a pretty slow pace though if I recall, it could be argued had he lost that he let California Chrome get too easy of a lead.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:00 PM   #36
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But his horse clearly ran a very good race
He did indeed, and being pressed on the fence.

I just don't get the part about "“No, I didn’t want the horse on the lead. " When a few days ago he said he was going to run this like a match race. So his horse gets pressed by Justify, when he was wanting to be the one pressing....I'd say he really miscalculated his strategy then.


Match race doesn't imply sitting off the pace and following another horse around, does it? Match race to me means, TAKE IT TO THE OTHER HORSE.

In the final analysis, I doubt letting Justify get even 2 lengths ahead would have worked. and obviously, dueling him didn't work either. The truth is that Justify just has a "little more" than GM, as a horse AT THIS POINT IN TIME. Calling out your jockey in front of the world is pretty "sour grapes.



However, I like to see the can-do attitude of asumussen:

"We were three-quarters of a length away from where we want to be, let’s figure out how to get it.”

Last edited by clicknow; 05-20-2018 at 02:04 PM.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:03 PM   #37
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All i heard before Preakness is that Chad Brown said they would treat it as a match race. To me, that meant he was going to SEND.


The truth of the matter is: Let's look at Chad Brown's actual stats: dirt horses returning on 2 weeks rest.

5 or so years and I think it's 0%?


Perhaps look at his own performance here instead of blaming the jockey. Brown is much better with turf and sometimes you just gotta be realistic aobut where your strengths lie.

i.e. I love playing trifectas, but tracking my every wager over 3-4 years shows my strong point is longshots and exactas. So, when I keep playing trifectas, I don't do so well.
Show us the quotes that you heard all week. Chad wasn't even in Baltimore until the end of the week.

Try watching the video I provided and get back to me when you hear...

(A) Lack of respect for Justify or others

(B) The two words "match race"

Paraphrasing just one quote in the video. " We have to hope our horse breaks well and Justify doesn't get too far ahead of us.".

He won this race last year with Cloud Computing. The stat you site is foolish.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:03 PM   #38
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He did indeed, and being pressed on the fence.

I just don't get the part about "“No, I didn’t want the horse on the lead. " When a few days ago he said he was going to run this like a match race. So his horse gets pressed by Justify, when he was wanting to be the one pressing....I'd say he really miscalculated his strategy then.


Match race doesn't imply sitting off the pace and following another horse around, does it? Match race to me means, TAKE IT TO THE OTHER HORSE.


However, I like to see the can-do attitude of asumussen:

"We were three-quarters of a length away from where we want to be, let’s figure out how to get it.”
Trainers are not usually good handicappers (though his mentor sure was).

Also, once the horse broke well and was inside the speed he really had no choice, Brown sounds silly in this case.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:06 PM   #39
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He was the 10 horse. I was a pretty slow pace though if I recall, it could be argued had he lost that he let California Chrome get too easy of a lead.
I also think Arrogate was the better horse and both riders knew it. In this case the better horse was Justify so not really the same situation to me. There is no chance Good Magic is going to run down a loose on the lead Justify in the stretch. If you employ that strategy you are just hoping Justify is off his game.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:24 PM   #40
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He won this race last year with Cloud Computing. The stat you site is foolish.
Cloud Computing ran in the Wood Memorial, skipped the KY Derby, and the ran in the Preakness. He was NOT running off 2 weeks rest.

So please tell me what was "foolish" about my stat?



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Show us the quotes that you heard all week. .

you are right, it was the jockey not the trainer: “Hopefully, someone else goes [to the early lead]. If Justify goes, and I have to be the one putting pressure on him, I will be,” Ortiz said. “I will have to turn it into a match race. It looks like a match race on paper. You can't give Justify an inch.”

But sounds to me like ortiz had it "figured out" right He's easily one of the best gate riders in the nation right now. Had they let Justify get ahead, ran off the pace, then tried to pass Justify in the stretch, Mike would have hit the button on Justify's afterburners and it would have been over. (and I'm not even a big Justify fan, just calling it like it is----top class speed, despite being tired, would still have won this).


if Brown wanted him to do otherwise he should have made it clear to his jockey.

I admire Brown for entering his colt. Had the post positions been switched, he may have won. Had the weather been different, he may have won (though highly doubtful) He is obviously disappointed, as would be natural.

Last edited by clicknow; 05-20-2018 at 02:25 PM.
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:42 PM   #41
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Clicknow, one can understand the dirt stat on 2 weeks rest would be poor. How many total such races on dirt? Seriously... He's long had more turf runners, so why go with an obscure stat that you are aware isn't going to help you. Cloud Computing, of course, was rested. Tell me something I don't know...
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Old 05-20-2018, 02:49 PM   #42
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Clicknow, one can understand the dirt stat on 2 weeks rest would be poor. How many total such races on dirt? Seriously... He's long had more turf runners, so why go with an obscure stat that you are aware isn't going to help you. Cloud Computing, of course, was rested. Tell me something I don't know...
He doesnt make the move reall at all, it was a grass mdn cliaming win and a restricted grass claimer, think at Monmouth of like 12 starts over 5 years.

Trainers at the high end all want 4 horse fields every 6 weeks or so, Chad rarely runs his horses more than a handful of times per year.

This race spacing bounce junk has been bad for racing. No reason 3-6 year old horses should not be running every 14-28 days. Would help the sport tremendously, but alas horses would lose more often and win percentages would go down.
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:02 PM   #43
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Also, once the horse broke well and was inside the speed he really had no choice, Brown sounds silly in this case.
Coming into and around the first turn, Mike Smith seemed intent on making the lead...and Ortiz pushed Good Magic into the impending early speed duel from the inside. When you say that Ortiz had "no choice"...do you mean that he couldn't sit a length or so behind Justify in the early going, and then try to gain on the outside as the two horses separated from the rest of the pack? Was it "good strategy" to engage the 2/5 undefeated Derby winner in a nose-to-nose speed duel while buried on the inside of the track?

Did Ortiz really think that he was going to race Justify into the ground early...and then draw out and beat the rest of the field?
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:09 PM   #44
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Did Ortiz really think that he was going to race Justify into the ground early...and then draw out and beat the rest of the field?
Maybe Ortiz=LoneF?
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Old 05-20-2018, 03:12 PM   #45
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Maybe Ortiz=LoneF?
And all this time I've wondered what the F stood for. Thank you for clearing that up for me.
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