2018 Preakness Post Positions & ML Odds

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Skanoochies

With Winstar Farms and China Horse Group having ownership in Quip and Justify who knows how they are going to play it.
Send Quip to go after other early speed and let Justify relax early?

If Justify is healthy & has no foot problem, he should be behind the pace setter IMO.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

If Justify is healthy & has no foot problem, he should be behind the pace setter IMO.

He has an outside post, unless he misses the break (always possible) he can rate or just sit outside anyone who does crazy stuff.

If Quip somehow were to hook Justify after he breaks on top that will be the last horse from winstar that rider and trainer ever see.

[Spalding No!]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

He has an outside post, unless he misses the break (always possible) he can rate or just sit outside anyone who does crazy stuff.

If Quip somehow were to hook Justify after he breaks on top that will be the last horse from winstar that rider and trainer ever see.

Seems like the simplest plan is for Quip to play the role of Promises Fulfilled (who drew inside in the Derby). Justify can simply flank that one at whatever pace Quip can set (he's set slow paces in his routes, but his sprint debut seemed to have a sharp pace) and overtake him as Smith sees fit. If Justify moves away easily, I doubt Quip will be asked to stay with him, but rather concede the lead and try and hold on for a placing.

The wrench(es) in that plan are Sporting Chance and maybe Diamond King if they show speed. They might keep Justify wide on the first turn, and in the case of Sporting Chance, wreak havoc if Justify can't clear him before the stretch.

This kind of setup might actually benefit Good Magic as well, if he is ridden patiently. If Good Magic can secure the inside a length or two off the first flight, he can simply wait for Justify to move away from these inferior pace rivals and have a clearer shot at the favorite before the head of the stretch. In the Derby, Good Magic had to shift out and go around Bolt D'Oro, losing a critical length or two around the far turn. Ideally here--though he might have to split some tiring pace rivals--he should be able to engage Justify a little bit earlier than he did at Churchill (when Justify was in full gear). He might have more in the tank, too, if the pace is not as demanding as in the Derby.

It might open up a whole new can of worms if something can actually range up and look Justify in the eye at the top of the stretch, as opposed to the heel-nipping nuisances that Justify shrugged off in his last two starts.

[Fightingirish51195]

Sporting chance has a legitimate chance to win this race. Legitimate enough to bet him. If he decides to run, he will like the mud

[SecretAgentMan]

Other than the weather, the backstretch buzz was with the early odds, based on a pool of just more than $400,000 May 18.

Predictably, Justify was at even-money, but was followed by the Steve Asmussen-trained Tenfold at 2-1, with Derby runner-up Good Magic at 9-1. Other early odds were Quip, 7-2; Lone Sailor, 30-1; Sporting Chance, 19-1; Diamond King, 70-1; and Bravazo, 19-1.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan

Other than the weather, the backstretch buzz was with the early odds, based on a pool of just more than $400,000 May 18.

Predictably, Justify was at even-money, but was followed by the Steve Asmussen-trained Tenfold at 2-1, with Derby runner-up Good Magic at 9-1. Other early odds were Quip, 7-2; Lone Sailor, 30-1; Sporting Chance, 19-1; Diamond King, 70-1; and Bravazo, 19-1.

The doubles show the odds a bit more were expecting.

[Blenheim]

Interesting. No works for Justify, Good Magic and Lone Sailor, not even a blow out, but a nice 4fl in 50.3 for Calumet’s Lukas trained Bravazo. I figure that Derby was particular taxing and the horses don’t need the work or one work would deplete any stored reserve energy.

“Classier horses might deliver three peak efforts before disappointing, but only the best of class can be expected to deliver more than three top performances in a row.” (Quinn) Justify has delivered four peak efforts – he is pushing the envelope; his last effort showed a decline in the BRIS speed figure, couple that with a bad left rear, he can’t be considered 100% and looks vulnerable. Good Magic has delivered three peak efforts – he too is pushing the envelope; his last effort showed a BRIS one point above his previous two performances; he hasn’t matured and improved as a three-year-old, he looks vulnerable.

Who better to beat a swifty than a swifty?

I think either Quip or Tenfold will likely upset here. Not so much Quip as it appears he has hit his high form number w/that BRIS 98, but Tenfold looks interesting. Three nice works; DI and CD fits the average for the track; he will likely improve just enough to run these worn and tired guys down.

[SecretAgentMan]

Updated Odds:


1. Quip, Rodolphe Brisset, Florent Geroux, 9-1

2. Lone Sailor, Tom Amoss, Irad Ortiz Jr., 10-1

3. Sporting Chance, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Contreras, 18-1

4. Diamond King, John Servis, Javier Castellano, 15-1

5. Good Magic, Chad Brown, Jose Ortiz, 5-1

6. Tenfold, Steve Asmussen, Ricardo Santana Jr., 21-1

7. Justify, Bob Baffert, Mike Smith, 1-2

8. Bravazo, D. Wayne Lukas, Luis Saez, 12-1

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

It makes more sense to me to bet against Good M finishing in second/third than it does Justify finishing first. Can have some decent odds with that. I will do both tho. Depends on the odds if I will use Quip and Lone Sailor more or just gamble with Sporting Chance more.

So far:

$2 Trifecta:

Bravazo/Justify/Tenfold, Diamond King, Sporting Chance

Justify/Bravazo, Tenfold, Diamond King/Bravazo, Tenfold, Diamond King, Sporting Chance

$1 super:

Bravazo/Justify/Tenfold, Diamond King, LS, Quip/Good Magic

Justify/Bravazo, Lone Sailor, TF/Bravazo, Lone Sailor, TF/Good Magic

Hope you played your $2 trifectas $296.60 for the kind of day it's been is a pretty decent haul for a $2 trifecta.

I built most of my wagers around Tenfold running 2nd, not 3rd, as I posted earlier.....and he almost did! But if I had not had a show wager on him, I would have gone home broke I was pretty excited when it looked like he was coming like a freight train there at the end, would have really boosted my exotics.

[MadVindication]

I'm happy the race played out like I thought. Figured GM wouldn't hold up to finish 2 or 3 trying to run with Justify. And betting against him just made sense to me. When I saw Bravazo looking in good form, like on KD day, I knew he'd run well. And I actually won some money! woot. Now off to my local track for the evening.

Really glad that the jocks and horses came out of the race safe and sound despite the weather.