Belmont Post Positions

[papillon]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I do think it means something. I believe I'm seeing signs of a horse that's keyed up and going to run off in the Belmont, as we've seen in several horses going for the TC, resulting in a loss. Now the 1 hole? The horse is going to take Mike to the front and run too fast. I think it's wide open as to who'll win, but I wouldn't mind if Lukas is the one who stops this TC from happening.

The 46.80, plus all the reports of bucking, on top of how keyed up he was in the Preakness post parade, before a marathon are not positives to me. A bucking horse running free in a paddock is one thing, a bucking horse under tack with a mounted rider is another. FWIW Mendelssohn's pre-derby bucking wasn't a plus either, however, he always does it, so it at least was in character. Over at Thorograph someone mentioned how similar Justify's behavior is to Funnycide's pre-Belmont.

Getting position in a 12f race is not as straightforward as it seems. You don't want to be more than 3 or 4 lengths back at the half at the very least, the quarter ideally. Watching an hour of Belmont's going back to 1973 on TVG the other night really highlighted this for me. But you also do not want to go out too fast, even a little too fast. You have to find the sweet spot.

To take up slots 2-4, horses will make a beeline for the rail, and then sort themselves. This has been the case for 45 years of Belmonts.

Unlike American Pharoah's year, the competition is unquestionably in this to win it. Juddmonte has come out saying they are prepared to be pelted with beer cans again. Mott said he's been studying dirt marathons and Hoffburg will be no further back than 4th. Repole is going in gun blazing, and Pletcher rewarded Geroux's inexplicable, lackadaisical derby ride on Noble Indy by taking the mount from him. Romans is here to win. Asmussen and Winchell have been clear they are in it to win it. Brown and Ortiz likely have a grudge to settle and a horse as big as Justify that they likely don't care about sacrificing. I don't think Lucas has ever entered a race for minor prizes. Justify might even be Smarty Jonesed. Restoring Hope has been liberated by being in a post that doesn't facilitate his aiding, though he might be given the order to fan posts 6-10 as wide as possible. The West's have to be at least a little relieved.

Noble Indy without blinkers means he's going to settle, and unlike Justify, his pps are full of 23, 23, 23/24, 24, 24. That's the key. Restoring Hope's also. If Restoring Hope doesn't gun it, Noble Indy is plenty fast enough to clear the field easily and sit on Justify, or just off. Had Geroux not stood all the way up in the stirrups and road looking backswards at Mendelssohn before the first turn in the Derby, he was on pace with a perfect trajectory to clear Bolt.

Justify alone on the front is not a great place for him. Baffert wasn't wrong when he said Justify needs a horse to follow. He can't control his own decelaration, he typically decelarates at 1 second per 1/4 for 6f, then starts to fall apart.

Anywho, if it rains, who knows? bleh.

EDIT: If Noble Indy clears, Smith may let him go. Everyone may let him go...

[Tom]

Originally Posted by PoloUK6108

Noble Indy is not a rabbit, but instead the first of a 1-2 Repole punch at Justify.

With the first punch being a rabbit and the second being a closer who benefits from the first punch.

Hey, if you have two horses, you can enter a rabbit. Dr Fager used to love fried rabbit after a gruelling race.

When you have a rabbit and nothing else, then you are a slime ball.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Tom

With the first punch being a rabbit and the second being a closer who benefits from the first punch.

Hey, if you have two horses, you can enter a rabbit. Dr Fager used to love fried rabbit after a gruelling race.

When you have a rabbit and nothing else, then you are a slime ball.

ah well, it can never be as bad as what they did to Smarty Jones in his Belmont. If I was ever gonna actually "shed tears" after a race, it would have been that one. Although I did do the mamma bear worrying about Big Brown, gosh, he got stuck with such horrible humans!

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by papillon

The 46.80, plus all the reports of bucking, on top of how keyed up he was in the Preakness post parade, before a marathon are not positives to me. A bucking horse running free in a paddock is one thing, a bucking horse under tack with a mounted rider is another. FWIW Mendelssohn's pre-derby bucking wasn't a plus either, however, he always does it, so it at least was in character. Over at Thorograph someone mentioned how similar Justify's behavior is to Funnycide's pre-Belmont.

Getting position in a 12f race is not as straightforward as it seems. You don't want to be more than 3 or 4 lengths back at the half at the very least, the quarter ideally. Watching an hour of Belmont's going back to 1973 on TVG the other night really highlighted this for me. But you also do not want to go out too fast, even a little too fast. You have to find the sweet spot.

To take up slots 2-4, horses will make a beeline for the rail, and then sort themselves. This has been the case for 45 years of Belmonts.

Unlike American Pharoah's year, the competition is unquestionably in this to win it. Juddmonte has come out saying they are prepared to be pelted with beer cans again. Mott said he's been studying dirt marathons and Hoffburg will be no further back than 4th. Repole is going in gun blazing, and Pletcher rewarded Geroux's inexplicable, lackadaisical derby ride on Noble Indy by taking the mount from him. Romans is here to win. Asmussen and Winchell have been clear they are in it to win it. Brown and Ortiz likely have a grudge to settle and a horse as big as Justify that they likely don't care about sacrificing. I don't think Lucas has ever entered a race for minor prizes. Justify might even be Smarty Jonesed. Restoring Hope has been liberated by being in a post that doesn't facilitate his aiding, though he might be given the order to fan posts 6-10 as wide as possible. The West's have to be at least a little relieved.

Noble Indy without blinkers means he's going to settle, and unlike Justify, his pps are full of 23, 23, 23/24, 24, 24. That's the key. Restoring Hope's also. If Restoring Hope doesn't gun it, Noble Indy is plenty fast enough to clear the field easily and sit on Justify, or just off. Had Geroux not stood all the way up in the stirrups and road looking backswards at Mendelssohn before the first turn in the Derby, he was on pace with a perfect trajectory to clear Bolt.

Justify alone on the front is not a great place for him. Baffert wasn't wrong when he said Justify needs a horse to follow. He can't control his own decelaration, he typically decelarates at 1 second per 1/4 for 6f, then starts to fall apart.

Anywho, if it rains, who knows? bleh.

EDIT: If Noble Indy clears, Smith may let him go. Everyone may let him go...

Wait, so Mott started studying dirt marathons now?

[PoloUK6108]

Originally Posted by Tom

With the first punch being a rabbit and the second being a closer who benefits from the first punch.

Hey, if you have two horses, you can enter a rabbit. Dr Fager used to love fried rabbit after a gruelling race.

When you have a rabbit and nothing else, then you are a slime ball.

But it's Javier, are we sure he'll be speed of speed? Will he get next to justify?

If not, he's not benefiting VR.

[The Arbiter]

Originally Posted by Fightingirish51195

Wow. This makes me angry. Did he just say the horse was basically in there to be a rabbit

That's reading into it somewhat, but if so, is that better or worse than the other stable keeping competitive horses out of the race?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by The Arbiter

That's reading into it somewhat, but if so, is that better or worse than the other stable keeping competitive horses out of the race?

Hows audible been working by the way? Also hows Magnum Moon been working?

[jay68802]

So far all the talk has been about the "other" Pletcher horse. The one horse I see no reason for being in the race happens to be the "other" Baffert horse. Maybe Restoring Hope is in here to counter Noble Indy. Their pace ratings are very close. He is drawn inside of NI, so he just goes out and stays inside of NI, maybe even keeping him wide through the first turn.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by jay68802

So far all the talk has been about the "other" Pletcher horse. The one horse I see no reason for being in the race happens to be the "other" Baffert horse. Maybe Restoring Hope is in here to counter Noble Indy. Their pace ratings are very close. He is drawn inside of NI, so he just goes out and stays inside of NI, maybe even keeping him wide through the first turn.

yes, instead of the same ol same ol trainers entering extra horses to run interference for their other horses, it would have been nice to see some other individual horses, from other trainers, entered into the race.

Again, there's not much choice being offered here except the same 2-3 trainers, as usual, what racing has become in the U.S.

yawn.

[Blenheim]

I like the idea that Repole is gonna take it to Justify irrespective of what others might think; this is hoss' racin', ain't no feelings involved in this game, like it or not and he doesn't care if you don't like it.

It is all about the competition and there is no sentiment in competitive sports at the highest level.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I like the idea that Repole is gonna take it to Justify irrespective of what others might think; this is hoss' racin', ain't no feelings involved in this game, like it or not and he doesn't care if you don't like it.

It is all about the competition and there is no sentiment in competitive sports at the highest level.

I don't know if you were referring to my post above yours, but it was not at all about sentimentality. I agree you should be "in it to win it".

My point was the homogenous nature these races are beginning to take on with 2 or sometimes 3 trainers having multiple entries, and same connections across ownerships/syndicates, controlling who enters races, when I would more enjoy some different trainers and different horses. Instead we have different horses who seem to be entered to set the table and bus the table for horses already in the race with same ownerships, and others not entered even though they'd be competitive and *exciting* for some of us.

You know, when horse racing becomes only 2 choices, AT&T or Verizon. If anyone finds that concept exciting or even worth following, then enjoy. I just do not.

It's enough to just make you bet on Gronk. I think I may put a few bucks on him to run ITM

[delsully]

Originally Posted by Blenheim

I like the idea that Repole is gonna take it to Justify irrespective of what others might think; this is hoss' racin', ain't no feelings involved in this game, like it or not and he doesn't care if you don't like it.

It is all about the competition and there is no sentiment in competitive sports at the highest level.

Agreed...how dare they race to win.

[luisbe]

Originally Posted by jay68802

So far all the talk has been about the "other" Pletcher horse. The one horse I see no reason for being in the race happens to be the "other" Baffert horse. Maybe Restoring Hope is in here to counter Noble Indy. Their pace ratings are very close. He is drawn inside of NI, so he just goes out and stays inside of NI, maybe even keeping him wide through the first turn.

But they didn't know it was to be sorted it out that way when they entered the horse.

[Thomas Roulston]

Originally Posted by clicknow

It's enough to just make you bet on Gronk. I think I may put a few bucks on him to run ITM

He is first-time Lasix - but he has no Solid or Professional chef-de-race influences in his Dosage Profile. So I have mixed feelings about him.