5 Reasons Justify Wins The Triple Crown

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by boys at tosconova

justy could easily put this field to sleep.

it's highly unlikely there will be any shenanigans this race with a horse pushing him.

prolly rank and file behind him...with tenfold and bravazo completing the number once again.............yawn

I hope a LOT of people make that wager.

[Fager Fan]

Originally Posted by MadVindication

And why not? All kinds of reasons to enter into a race other than be in it to win it. They get to watch their horse compete in a high profile event. Sounds good to me.

I assume you and Jay are kidding.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I assume you and Jay are kidding.

Yes, I was attempting humor, because I can not come up with one reason to give the horse more than a .01% chance of winning.

[jay68802]

Originally Posted by papillon

Speed doesn't win the Belmont, energy distribution does

I'm not sure, I am going to look, but if memory serves me, 8 of the last 10 winners of the Belmont have been in 1st or 2nd at the first call.

[MadVindication]

Originally Posted by Fager Fan

I assume you and Jay are kidding.

Not exactly, I think there's many reasons to run a horse in a race it's not really competitive in. I would and do bet on it.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I'm not sure, I am going to look, but if memory serves me, 8 of the last 10 winners of the Belmont have been in 1st or 2nd at the first call.

That sounds right. That said, the only bona fide EP7 or E8 horse to win it the past 16 years was American Pharoah. The jury is still out if Justify can throttle down his early pace. If he can replicate the Santa Anita Derby then he'd be dangerous. If not then he's at risk to miss the money like Chrome who faced an arguably weaker field of "cheaters".

[papillon]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I'm not sure, I am going to look, but if memory serves me, 8 of the last 10 winners of the Belmont have been in 1st or 2nd at the first call.

It isn't a function of position though. It is a function of distribution.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truen...-distance.aspx

You have to keep in mind that the Belmont is often pretty bunched up for the first quarter to half.

Tonalist, not a speed horse (sat off Commissioner).

Creator, not a speed horse.

Ruler on Ice, not a speed horse (sat off Shack)

Union Rags, not a speed horse (sat off Paynter)

The speed horse usually gives way.

[papillon]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

That sounds right. That said, the only bona fide EP7 or E8 horse to win it the past 16 years was American Pharoah. The jury is still out if Justify can throttle down his early pace. If he can replicate the Santa Anita Derby then he'd be dangerous. If not then he's at risk to miss the money like Chrome who faced an arguably weaker field of "cheaters".

No snark--It has been rammed done my throat that Justify was flying in the SA Derby, full throttle. His steep decelaration supports that he was all out (and I mean his decelaration from 6f-8f, not after he was "geared down").

If he runs like he did in the SA Derby or the KY Derby, with that off-the-cliff decelaration, he finishes up the track, not even in the pack like Chrome. You can get away with it in every race but the Belmont.

In his maiden, he decelerated 2 seconds a 1/4.

[chiguy]

I am far, far from the smartest guy who frequents this board but it appears to me that many are making an argument that 'most times' the fastest horse does not win the Belmont. Seems weird to me. I don't have a strong opinion on this race. It is young 3 year-olds going a mile and a half. I will play horizontal wagers and use a mix of A's, B's and C's to Justify. I will also play A's and a couple of B's to 6 others in the Belmont. This horse had done something remarkable in his short career and I hope he wins again.


I am excited for Larrry's stretch call. Should go something like this....


Justify is widening his lead, the long three year wait is finally over....

[BlueChip@DRF]

One single reason Justify doesn't win the Triple Crown:

When the crown is on the line, there has been no coronation when there are 9 or more in the gate for the Belmont Stakes. Maybe I am wrong, but when was the last time that there was a TC winner running against more than 7 others in the race?

[HalvOnHorseracing]

80% chance of rain Saturday. I think that favors Justify.

[dilanesp]

I think the energy distribution people certainly have a point-- we have seen a lot of even paced types win the Belmont lately, and actually American Pharoah's Belmont was a real exemplar of the genre-- he ran his first half in 1:13 and change and his second half in 1:13 and change. He just never slowed down.

But I would caution people against dogmatism. The Bemont has had some really funny results. The received wisdom is that speed horses aren't so great in it, but Da Tara went reasonably quick (23 4/5 to the opening quarter) and won the thing. The received wisdom is that deep closers aren't so great in it, but Victory Gallop, Lemon Drop Kid, and Editor's Note all won it from way back. The received wisdom is that you don't win it by taking control of the race with a bold move, but Risen Star and Bet Twice won it by taking control of the race with a bold move, and Rags to Riches and Curlin made their bold moves together and ended up in a tight photo finish.

The reality is that there's probably more variance in the results of the Belmont than any other major American stakes race. You have the weird distance, the weird track configuration with its wide turns, the fact that the riders and trainers have very little experience participating in 1 1/2 mile dirt races, the unpredictability of the pace, which is sometimes fast and sometimes slow, and the fact that some of the horses have been through the TC campaign which probably takes a bit out of some of the horses by the time they get to the Belmont.

I've actually hit some big scores in the Belmont over the years, and I have no earthly idea if that was due to my handicapping acumen or pure luck. FWIW, I don't try to predict the pace very much, and look mostly for breeding, horses with some hidden virtues in their past performances, and trainers who have done well in the Belmont. And I think speed figures are usually pretty useless here.

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by papillon

It isn't a function of position though. It is a function of distribution.

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truen...-distance.aspx

You have to keep in mind that the Belmont is often pretty bunched up for the first quarter to half.

Tonalist, not a speed horse (sat off Commissioner).

Creator, not a speed horse.

Ruler on Ice, not a speed horse (sat off Shack)

Union Rags, not a speed horse (sat off Paynter)

The speed horse usually gives way.

You are comparing those speed horses to Justify?

[Secondbest]

I just a preview show with Maggie ,Gabby ,Andy and LoDuca. Maggie said that Justify looks as if he gained weight and that he was full of energy and just looked great.
If that's the case tough to see him losing.

[Denny]

The Belmont Stakes is the best race for me year after year.
It's a true distance race - one of the only ones left in American racing.
(The Derby to me is a middle-distance race.)

My biggest score EVER in horseracing came in the Belmont won by Temperance Hill with Eddie Maple. Paid $102 to win. Had a COLD DD with Cruguet winning the last race that paid $450.

I see Justify as vulnerable. Something like 12 or 13 straight horses going for the TC before American Pharoah LOST their bid.

The odds to me are he loses.

I'm looking for a price. Not sure who just yet, but, there's plenty of time to figure that out.

denny

PS. Breeding matters. Even DOSAGE.