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11-18-2012, 11:57 AM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,731
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2016 election odds
H. Clinton 6-1
M. Rubio 10-1
J. Bush 13-1
C. Christie 13-1
P. Ryan 12-1
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11-18-2012, 12:16 PM
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#2
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gelding
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 8,883
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11-18-2012, 12:41 PM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,565
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Way too soon
See you in around 3 years.......... 
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11-18-2012, 01:03 PM
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,731
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
See you in around 3 years.......... |
we lost a few key guys on this board because they listened to polls instead of real lines on the last go.
this time around, everyone will be well aware of what is going on ahead of time.
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11-18-2012, 01:05 PM
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#5
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Canadian since 51
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by lamboguy
H. Clinton 6-1
M. Rubio 10-1
J. Bush 13-1
C. Christie 13-1
P. Ryan 12-1
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Hmmm... YOU are relentless! 
On these picks, Hilary is four year older than me, making her a candidate at what? 68? Her above average peformance as SOS was fine, but she's not in the Top Tier of Superstars like Kissinger, Rusk and Baker.Her time was snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Obama 4 years ago. 
Rubio. At least odds on to win, especially if he gets the Republican Party on side with Illegal Immigration and he brings a critical large state into both play and victory. Young, intelligent, articulate, intelligent and with the requisite good family background. 
Jeb. Hmmm.. the SMART son. Coulda, shoulda, woulda... He'll be in his early 60s and is a moderate version, who is in favour of changing the landscape on Immigration, right? Down side is 3 Bushes and you're out. If there was no Rubio, would have shot... but there is.
Christie?  Et tu Brute? Not a chance, although I find Christie refreshingly candid and open on almost any subject.
Von Ryan. I don't discount his smarts, but his extreme positions are too much for being voted Prezzie. Really, it depends on whether Obama + Congress get the economy turned around. If it is, Ryan has less of a shot.
Others
It's an odd inversion, really. The Dems have proven, with the Obama playbook, that they are the party of a winning coalition majority of women, minorities, young people and urbanites. Their problem is that, aside from the President, they have waaaaay too many fossils in critical positions ( Pelosi & Reid, being the 2 focal points). Their young stars are now apprenticing, aside from Cuomo, Van Hollen & Julian Castro. They appear out of star candidates in 2016.
As for the Republicans? They've already trashed the whacko end of the continuum losers & the incomparably stupid (Perry) in this year's Republican primary.
On the plus side, they've got plenty of upcoming young stars in addition to those mentioned above. I'd consider Govs. Daniels, Gin-Doll, Haley & Walker in the mix along with Ted Cruz.
All of these need to nuance any national message to contest the future dominated by the Democratic coalition of voters.
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11-18-2012, 01:24 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Tennessee
Posts: 10,588
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rookies
Hmmm... YOU are relentless!
On these picks, Hilary is four year older than me, making her a candidate at what? 68? Her above average peformance as SOS was fine, but she's not in the Top Tier of Superstars like Kissinger, Rusk and Baker.Her time was snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Obama 4 years ago.
Rubio. At least odds on to win, especially if he gets the Republican Party on side with Illegal Immigration and he brings a critical large state into both play and victory. Young, intelligent, articulate, intelligent and with the requisite good family background.
Jeb. Hmmm.. the SMART son. Coulda, shoulda, woulda... He'll be in his early 60s and is a moderate version, who is in favour of changing the landscape on Immigration, right? Down side is 3 Bushes and you're out. If there was no Rubio, would have shot... but there is.
Christie? Et tu Brute? Not a chance, although I find Christie refreshingly candid and open on almost any subject.
Von Ryan. I don't discount his smarts, but his extreme positions are too much for being voted Prezzie. Really, it depends on whether Obama + Congress get the economy turned around. If it is, Ryan has less of a shot.
Others
It's an odd inversion, really. The Dems have proven, with the Obama playbook, that they are the party of a winning coalition majority of women, minorities, young people and urbanites. Their problem is that, aside from the President, they have waaaaay too many fossils in critical positions ( Pelosi & Reid, being the 2 focal points). Their young stars are now apprenticing, aside from Cuomo, Van Hollen & Julian Castro. They appear out of star candidates in 2016.
As for the Republicans? They've already trashed the whacko end of the continuum losers & the incomparably stupid (Perry) in this year's Republican primary.
On the plus side, they've got plenty of upcoming young stars in addition to those mentioned above. I'd consider Govs. Daniels, Gin-Doll, Haley & Walker in the mix along with Ted Cruz.
All of these need to nuance any national message to contest the future dominated by the Democratic coalition of voters. |
WOW!! Don't let this scare you off your analysis, but I agree with you 100%.  That is a pretty damn good job of handicapping the field.
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11-18-2012, 01:39 PM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,731
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i only listed the top 5 contenders. as big of a favorite that Hillary is, the democrats don't have anyone in the top 10 after her. if she doesn't run the democrats are in big trouble. the next on the list is Cuomo and he is not that strong.
these bets are like futures bets in horses for the Kentucky Derby, if your horse doesn't start you lose. i warn you about that because you are getting 6-1 with Hillary which looks like a lock if she runs, but a lot can happen in 4 years.
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11-18-2012, 02:24 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2002
Posts: 30,398
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11-18-2012, 02:43 PM
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#9
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,759
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Marco Rubio gave a speech in Iowa last night and set a fund raising record
"And they're off!"
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11-18-2012, 03:28 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 14,565
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I did get a chuckle going down the list of possibles and their odds, though.
Ladbroke's of London win the irony prize for quoting Nate Silver @ 538-1
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11-18-2012, 03:59 PM
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#11
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Canadian since 51
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,458
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by horses4courses
I did get a chuckle going down the list of possibles and their odds, though.
Ladbroke's of London win the irony prize for quoting Nate Silver @ 538-1 |
Pretty good and way ahead of Rove at 538,000-1!
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11-18-2012, 05:00 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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I take it you aren't even going to bet $2. 
__________________
Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
No Balls.......No baby!
Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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11-18-2012, 05:07 PM
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#13
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,744
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What are the odds we have a country left after 4 more years of continual failure?
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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11-18-2012, 05:14 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: MILWAUKEE
Posts: 5,285
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they gave Rove some odds.....so I am guessing they think we will still be here. ok,...ok...not great odds but odds never the less
__________________
Never tell your problems to anyone because 20% flat don't care and 80% are glad they are yours.
No Balls.......No baby!
Have you ever noticed that those who do not have a pot to piss in nor a window to throw it out of always seem to know how to handle the money of those who do.
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11-18-2012, 05:37 PM
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#15
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,759
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Tom
What are the odds we have a country left after 4 more years of continual failure?
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The country is bigger than Obama. We will survive. Hunker down is my motto
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