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07-30-2016, 02:24 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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THEORY promising 2yo
For those of you who like to start talking about the Kentucky Derby ten months early, today at Saratoga in the third, a two year old in the Pletcher barn who was reportedly training like a good thing, Theory, by Gemologist out of a proven Officer broodmare, shot out of the gate, set the pace under pressure, shook off that one at the quarter pole and then when another horse came up to challenge, Theory drew off impressively to win his debut in 1:09.4 at a well meant 3/5 odds. Check out the replay.
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07-30-2016, 02:29 PM
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#2
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NoPoints4ME
Join Date: Sep 2013
Posts: 9,854
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by pandy
For those of you who like to start talking about the Kentucky Derby ten months early, today at Saratoga in the third, a two year old in the Pletcher barn who was reportedly training like a good thing, Theory, by Gemologist out of a proven Officer broodmare, shot out of the gate, set the pace under pressure, shook off that one at the quarter pole and then when another horse came up to challenge, Theory drew off impressively to win his debut in 1:09.4 at a well meant 3/5 odds. Check out the replay.
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He toyed with those children. Very nice. I like how at the 1/8 he was asked a bit and he accelerated away. Nice.
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07-30-2016, 02:34 PM
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#3
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Refugee from Bowie
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 1,598
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Any predictions on the Beyer?
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07-30-2016, 04:24 PM
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#4
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,827
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shemp Howard
Any predictions on the Beyer?
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I'd guess around 90 with the evidence so far today. The race right after was about 10 or 11 points faster on raw time.
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07-30-2016, 06:06 PM
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#5
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,827
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How about Big League?
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07-30-2016, 06:41 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 1,121
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Todd Pletcher 2YO first-time starters at Saratoga in dirt sprints when bet to odds-on favoritism:
2010-2014: 24-19-2-1
2015: 0-0-0-0
2016: 1-1?
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07-30-2016, 07:00 PM
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#7
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,827
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by SuperPickle
Todd Pletcher 2YO first-time starters at Saratoga in dirt sprints when bet to odds-on favoritism:
2010-2014: 24-19-2-1
2015: 0-0-0-0
2016: 1-1?
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I should probably take the money, but I just turn the page in those spots. (or click the mouse)
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07-30-2016, 09:25 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shemp Howard
Any predictions on the Beyer?
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Preliminary 84
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-31-2016, 12:13 AM
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#9
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,827
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Preliminary 84
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Shrinkage 
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07-31-2016, 07:01 AM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
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the REAL question...how many of those july/aug. SUPER 2yr.olds are EVEN racing STILL by next May as 3 yr. olds...
Historically......especially if trained by....not many
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
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07-31-2016, 10:45 AM
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#11
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,827
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sammy the sage
the REAL question...how many of those july/aug. SUPER 2yr.olds are EVEN racing STILL by next May as 3 yr. olds...
Historically......especially if trained by....not many
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Worked out alright for Nyquist and Exagerator.
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07-31-2016, 10:58 AM
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#12
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Veteran
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 818
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by cj
Worked out alright for Nyquist and Exagerator.
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the majority of 2 yr olds who win or start early in July/August you dont here much from them again in a year.I would like to know the winners from 2 yr old races in July/August at Saratoga last year and see what they are doing now.
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07-31-2016, 11:02 AM
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#13
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@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,827
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Donttellmeshowme
the majority of 2 yr olds who win or start early in July/August you dont here much from them again in a year.I would like to know the winners from 2 yr old races in July/August at Saratoga last year and see what they are doing now.
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This is a myth. The stats don't back it up at all. In fact, the more horses race early, the longer the careers last I checked. Of course some of that is because horses that don't debut until late have issues. But in general, the horses that can race early aren't any worse off than those that don't.
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07-31-2016, 12:20 PM
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#14
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,788
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Secretariat, Affirmed, Alydar, Seattle Slew....
I don't think the racing early is half the problem as lousy trainers today is.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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07-31-2016, 12:55 PM
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#15
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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I don't really care when a horse debuts, but I prefer when horses develop slowly. Unless the horse just happens to be a champion, I don't like when they come out running huge figures in their first couple of starts. It seem to me that a lot of those horses don't last long.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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