Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by boxcar

Life just isn't fair, is it?

No its not, but dont ask me to feel sorry for you when your time comes pal.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Tom

In this country, anyone can be a queen if he want to!

You will fit right in then!

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

You have consistently downplayed the pande4mic using suspicious models. Cut tio the chase. Where will we be at total deaths USA be by December?

do you realize over half of the 'corona' deaths were people that were going to be dead within 6 months anyway?


total deaths in USA in December will depend on who is counting and what criteria for inclusion is used.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

I agree Dave, but for Trump to tell people who are not ultra wealthy, i.e. me, not to worry about this, it rings kind of hollow. Kind of like when Marie Antoinette said "Let them eat cake"! Now we all know what happened to her.

Technically, what she said was, "Let them eat 'brioche,'" but close enough.

That's not really the point, though.

The point is that wealthy people - and I mean REALLY wealthy people - will always receive special treatment. Even communism doesn't change that. And either will "democratic socialism."

Just ask yourself - do you really think that Nancy Pelosi and Bill Gates are just going to give away ALL of their wealth (and power) and just become "one of us?"

It is a rhetorical question.

I know you don't.

The FRUITS of wealth are never going to be legislated away.

Of course it "rings kind of hollow." It always has and always will.

I know I will be excoriated for this, but the concept of Obamacare was wonderful. Like welfare. Of course, the application of it was terrible.

Again, just like welfare.

Oh, what those programs COULD BE. People need help, but not the kind of help that encourages entitlement, failure, and poor work ethics. "Work or don't eat" is (and should be) a powerful motivator.

[mhaney0423]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Technically, what she said was, "Let them eat 'brioche,'" but close enough.

That's not really the point, though.

The point is that wealthy people - and I mean REALLY wealthy people - will always receive special treatment. Even communism doesn't change that. And either will "democratic socialism."

Just ask yourself - do you really think that Nancy Pelosi and Bill Gates are just going to give away ALL of their wealth (and power) and just become "one of us?"

It is a rhetorical question.

I know you don't.

The FRUITS of wealth are never going to be legislated away.

Of course it "rings kind of hollow." It always has and always will.

I know I will be excoriated for this, but the concept of Obamacare was wonderful. Like welfare. Of course, the application of it was terrible.

Again, just like welfare.

Oh, what those programs COULD BE. People need help, but not the kind of help that encourages entitlement, failure, and poor work ethics. "Work or don't eat" is (and should be) a powerful motivator.

Again, I actually agree with most of what you say above. The issue I have is, Trump also knows what you say, probably even moreso than you, unless you are much wealthier than I imagine. That is OK, I can live with someone who has a lot more money recieving better healthcare. My point is, dont tell the rest of the country not to worry because you came through it fine WITH ALL OF THE HEATHCARE YOUR MONEY CAN BUY! Do you not see the issue with this?

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

You have consistently downplayed the pande4mic using suspicious models. Cut tio the chase. Where will we be at total deaths USA be by December?

I haven't downplayed anything. I've been locked down, wearing masks, and have been as cautious as you can be in my personal life.

What I've been saying is that data analysts are suggesting the "exponential growth" model of this virus is wrong and the mathematicians have been giving explanations for why.

No one earth knows exactly where deaths will be in December, but the model I've been referring you to for months has done a great job at predicting cases and deaths. The analyst has been on Twitter discussing the model all along.

Unfortunately, he is retiring the model in November to do other research related to Covid. He has referred people to some other models he tracks and recommended a few that were good. I have not looked at them yet.

[boxcar]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

No its not, but dont ask me to feel sorry for you when your time comes pal.

Not to worry, sir. I don't throw pity parties. Not my style.

And by the way...just so that you should know: I fully supported ObamaCare on one condition. Just one measly condition had to be met and I would have been applauding the anointed one. Since the central idea behind the law was to provide affordable, universal care for all, then I wanted that "all" to include all the elite politicians and bureaucrats in the beltway. So, it's not as though I'm not a huge fan of fairness and justice, for assuredly I am. But the dimwits not so much.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

I haven't downplayed anything. I've been locked down, wearing masks, and have been as cautious as you can be in my personal life.

What I've been saying is that data analysts are suggesting the "exponential growth" model of this virus is wrong and the mathematicians have been giving explanations for why.

No one earth knows exactly where deaths will be in December, but the model I've been referring you to for months has done a great job at predicting cases and deaths. The analyst has been on Twitter discussing the model all along.

Unfortunately, he is retiring the model in November to do other research related to Covid. He has referred people to some other models he tracks and recommended a few that were good. I have not looked at them yet.

Sorry, you did some fine 20/20 hindsight on what you claimed

"........Gee I didn't really say...."Deaths in the US have been declining steadily for weeks" instead you meant "ONLY NYS OR NYC were declining " .

We can argue what you really meant for ever, but the only way you can demonstrate how well your model(s) work, as in handicapping, is by going forward. I am not expecting an accurate number, but an estimate. Let's compare that to the main stream epidemiological estimated projections.

Some of which are quite disturbing.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by hcap

Some of which are quite disturbing.

Luckily for you...

[RunForTheRoses]

YouTube (Short URL)

[hcap]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Luckily for you...

Not lucky for anyone.

[RunForTheRoses]

YouTube (Short URL)

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by RunForTheRoses

https://youtu.be/2LnLE33eOQg

It's ok. Maxine is way smarter than the rest of us.

Therefore, she doesn't have to wear a mask.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by mhaney0423

Again, I actually agree with most of what you say above. The issue I have is, Trump also knows what you say, probably even moreso than you, unless you are much wealthier than I imagine. That is OK, I can live with someone who has a lot more money recieving better healthcare. My point is, dont tell the rest of the country not to worry because you came through it fine WITH ALL OF THE HEATHCARE YOUR MONEY CAN BUY! Do you not see the issue with this?

If I am understanding you right, you are upset about what Trump said; that it might be overstated?

What I see is that -- all things considered - Trump has kept more promises than any President in my lifetime.

Do I like the way he talks? Of course not.

If the man was even remotely presidential, he'd not be out there telling the leader of a foreign nation to F-himself before he was even in office.

BUT... he has improved so much in this country and that is especially true of the promises made ad nauseam by the left-wing leaders in the past 20 years. This is especially true when they were in the White house.

Simply put, Trump has raised the standards of minorities like no President in my memory. That includes the almighty Obama - one who was so full of promises and, yet, at the end of 8 years, where was minority unemployment?

Now, just to be clear - I am actually PRO LIBERAL -- in the sense that our system of government demands BOTH SIDES be functional parties.

The democratic party is currently highly dysfunctional. They have (essentially) declared war on the American way of life.

Not sure which will result in the worst outcome - A democratic win in November or a loss.

If they win, the will sink the country.

If the lose, they will burn the country.

Respectfully, I must say that by comparison, the fact that you don't like what Trump said is just fly droppings compared to the rest of it.

Just my opinion.
And I don't like my opinion.
But it does seem to represent reality.

[PaceAdvantage]

If a miracle occurs and Trump wins, nobody is burning anything...not in any meaningful way anyway.

Maybe a little bit of a PART II of what we saw this summer...but that's about it...not really THAT big a deal.

Besides, Soros is gonna run out of money for these shenanigans at one point or another. He's a businessman at heart. He's not going to keep throwing good money after bad. That in and of itself will do much to quell any potential riots.