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Old 05-08-2022, 12:06 AM   #1
RacingFan1992
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Secret Oath vs Rich Strike in the Preakness?

Wayne Lukas said the Preakness or Black eyed Susan could be two possible options.

Not like we haven't seen the Oaks vs Derby winner before in the same race.
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Old 05-08-2022, 12:22 AM   #2
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Wayne Lukas said the Preakness or Black eyed Susan could be two possible options.

Not like we haven't seen the Oaks vs Derby winner before in the same race.
I would assume the pace scenario will be completely different in the Preakness and you will see Epicenter, if he runs, run big, and Rich Strike falter. (Epicenter moved into the pace while it was still hot, though you can't really blame the jock for that.)

Secret Oath needs several Derby horses to not enter the Preakness, which has happened in the past when a Derby winner has been impressive, but I doubt Rich Strike will really scare them off.
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Old 05-08-2022, 12:43 AM   #3
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I would assume the pace scenario will be completely different in the Preakness and you will see Epicenter, if he runs, run big, and Rich Strike falter. (Epicenter moved into the pace while it was still hot, though you can't really blame the jock for that.)

Secret Oath needs several Derby horses to not enter the Preakness, which has happened in the past when a Derby winner has been impressive, but I doubt Rich Strike will really scare them off.
Asmussen had a real rough weekend as it turns. ECHO ZULO came prepared and wound up in a speed duel, she got beat about 3 lengths. EPICENTER drew as bad as he could draw, ran a monster race and got aced at the wire. i don't know about the filly, but EPICENTER is not done with this triple crown series.
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Old 05-08-2022, 01:03 AM   #4
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One interesting thing is remember how one of the pieces of Derby "wisdom" and "statistics" was that you couldn't win from post 20? When Big Brown ran this was supposed to be some fatal knock. Of course Big Brown was the best horse in that Derby and won it.

But Rich Strike not only won from the dreaded post 20- he even got a ground-saving trip!

Moral: we shouldn't overthink post position in a race with a long run into the first turn. Yes, in theory, some posts are better than others, but in practice, other things are more important.
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Old 05-08-2022, 02:23 AM   #5
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if anyone paid attention to Keeneland this year, there were horses winning every day that last raced on the synthetic of Turfway Park. Erik Reed has had a career going. from synthetic to dirt as well.. and the horse had the inside.

that being said, i never came close to playing it. i had made a terrible bet with the Oaks winner onto the next day's Derby... in the gate my double was $165 and after the horse won it went down to $ 101. i know better and actually deserved what happened to me....the break of my life is that i came down with the corona for the first time on Friday, and didn't feel like betting, i just wanted to sleep. i still want to sleep, but my stomach is somewhere in Ukraine right now.
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Old 05-08-2022, 11:16 AM   #6
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And what about Jack Christopher at Pimlico?
Chad didn't say no....interesting field.
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Old 05-08-2022, 11:43 AM   #7
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Early Voting for me.
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Old 05-08-2022, 11:44 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by dilanesp View Post
One interesting thing is remember how one of the pieces of Derby "wisdom" and "statistics" was that you couldn't win from post 20? When Big Brown ran this was supposed to be some fatal knock. Of course Big Brown was the best horse in that Derby and won it.

But Rich Strike not only won from the dreaded post 20- he even got a ground-saving trip!

Moral: we shouldn't overthink post position in a race with a long run into the first turn. Yes, in theory, some posts are better than others, but in practice, other things are more important.
I think the new gate should have stats of its own. This Derby proved that the new gate is fair.
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Old 05-08-2022, 01:33 PM   #9
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While I know that, technically, the Dosage Index does not apply in the Preakness, I'm still not comfortable betting on any horse with a Dosage of 8.60 at 1 3/16 miles - let alone a filly facing the boys.
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Old 05-08-2022, 02:05 PM   #10
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While I know that, technically, the Dosage Index does not apply in the Preakness, I'm still not comfortable betting on any horse with a Dosage of 8.60 at 1 3/16 miles - let alone a filly facing the boys.
Technically, the Dosage Index doesn't apply in the Derby either.
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Old 05-08-2022, 05:37 PM   #11
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Not for me to tug on Superman's cape.

DWL is much smarter than me.

But! If she was my horse there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO chance I'd run her vs boys two weeks after a HUGE race Friday.

The Acorn is five weeks away. PERFECT!
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Old 05-08-2022, 05:44 PM   #12
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Not for me to tug on Superman's cape.

DWL is much smarter than me.

But! If she was my horse there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO chance I'd run her vs boys two weeks after a HUGE race Friday.

The Acorn is five weeks away. PERFECT!
I think what you said will prove out to happen, Vic.

Like you, just my opinion.
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Old 05-08-2022, 05:49 PM   #13
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And what about Jack Christopher at Pimlico?
Chad didn't say no....interesting field.
He was being nice. There is ZERO chance he's going there.
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Old 05-08-2022, 06:22 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by v j stauffer View Post
Not for me to tug on Superman's cape.

DWL is much smarter than me.

But! If she was my horse there is ABSOLUTELY ZERO chance I'd run her vs boys two weeks after a HUGE race Friday.

The Acorn is five weeks away. PERFECT!
I'd love to see her do the oaks black eyed Susan double.
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Old 05-08-2022, 06:36 PM   #15
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Technically, the Dosage Index doesn't apply in the Derby either.
I agree. No way I would try to handicap 21 horses shipping in from all over. So I just turn on the TV, crack a few cold ones and dosage myself as I see fit. Don't need no stinking Index.
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