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Old 12-23-2008, 07:35 PM   #31
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Dividend Forecasting

Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.
Mark:

There are ways to do it and I actually have all the data needed though its not something PTC does.

Computer teams do it, they construct their wagers off of a predicted dividend not the actually tote price at the time they send in their bets. That's why its a fallacy that they all bet at 0MTP. They don't because they are wagering off of predicted payoffs. Now of course some teams are better at dividend projection than others...

It's also how they size their bets for tris and supers in case anyone was interested. There is no "secret" tote feed that shows those matricies. It's all based upon their dividend forecast models. One of the biggest mistakes I made when I played CRW a few years back is that I didn't use projected dividends and ended up betting too many underlays. I know better now should I ever get the inclination to take another crack at it...

Happy holidays to all.

Ian

Last edited by Premier Turf Club; 12-23-2008 at 07:37 PM.
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Old 12-23-2008, 07:54 PM   #32
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Appreciate your offer, but I would prefer you just keep betting at the track! Seems you may be one of the Saratogians I was speaking of!
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Old 12-23-2008, 07:58 PM   #33
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Sounds like you are a typical odd board bettor. I guess the game needs guys like you. Makes it easier for the real pros to make money.
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Old 12-23-2008, 08:06 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Premier Turf Club
Mark:

There are ways to do it and I actually have all the data needed though its not something PTC does.

Computer teams do it, they construct their wagers off of a predicted dividend not the actually tote price at the time they send in their bets. That's why its a fallacy that they all bet at 0MTP. They don't because they are wagering off of predicted payoffs. Now of course some teams are better at dividend projection than others...

It's also how they size their bets for tris and supers in case anyone was interested. There is no "secret" tote feed that shows those matricies. It's all based upon their dividend forecast models. One of the biggest mistakes I made when I played CRW a few years back is that I didn't use projected dividends and ended up betting too many underlays. I know better now should I ever get the inclination to take another crack at it...

Happy holidays to all.

Ian
Fascinating post Ian. I've heard of computer programs that estimate closing odds. My methods are different. I'm a low-tech handicapper who bases tote predictions on intuition. With my local knowledge and long experience as a professional oddsmaker, I feel comfortable on the air in commenting on unusual tote action and also in predicting which way the money will move in the final minutes. It's a service other shows simply don't provide.

Last edited by mountainman; 12-23-2008 at 08:09 PM.
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Old 12-24-2008, 09:49 AM   #35
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Originally Posted by cj
If you are betting without regards to odds, I'll take your action...all of it.
No fair, I called dibs several posts ago
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Old 12-24-2008, 10:51 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by ryesteve
No fair, I called dibs several posts ago
Yeah, I was hoping for a cut of the $5.
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Old 12-24-2008, 11:07 AM   #37
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Mark,

It is one of the reasons that fixed odds wagering has taken off. People make odds lines and want to use them. In pari mutuel this becomes tougher and tougher. It is a great game for fixed odds. Each horse has an order book with min odds to lay and min odds to bet. When you are filled, you are filled at the price you want, not at the price the horse ends up at.

We have had the technology to do this, and we certainly have the ear of the government, as witnessed by the gaming act and other things like slots. A new model like this should have been experimented with long ago, imo.
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Old 12-24-2008, 11:08 AM   #38
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I can comment a little on late concellations.

Typically there are rules that prevent betting clerks from doing late concellations because the tracks are trying to avoid odds manipulation. The rules are often related to bet size. If you go to a clerk and try to cancel and change a $2 bet long after stepping away from the window, many will do it for you. If you show up with a $500 straight exacta or 5K to win, then they are way less likely to do it because it is probably against the rules and they could get in a lot of trouble (cancels are generally tracked). However, there are occasions when manager approval can override the rules. Also, if the clerk accidentally punches the wrong horse or amount (not that uncommon for a clerk working quickly in an effort to satisfy a line full of screaming customers that don't want to get shut out), he/she will usually cancel and correct it no matter how large it is and how close to post time as long as the player didn't leave the window.
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Old 12-24-2008, 11:13 AM   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mountainman
While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.
In my personal betting, I use a margin of safety. If I think the fair price on a horse is about 2-1, I rarely take 5-2. Part of that is related to the possibility that I am missing something or wrong and part is related to the possibility that if I bet the horse it could drop to 9-5 or lower on the last flash. That's one thing that makes large pools preferable. It's harder to move the odds a lot. Of course the flip side is that the large pools at the major tend to attract the best players.
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Old 12-24-2008, 11:52 AM   #40
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Doubt you could handle it!!!
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Old 02-14-2009, 09:29 PM   #41
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11th @ Sunland 2/14/09

I watched the TB part of todays's Sunland Card, and noticed that prior to the 11th, the clock went to 0 MTP, with the horses still away from the starting gate, taking at least one minute, after 0 MTP before starting the loading process. In the 11th, the horses were behind the gate and ready to start loading prior to the clock hitting 0 MTP. The winner (#7) broke well, and pulled off to win by 12 lengths. The 7 horse was 8/1 ML, with over 2K in the P3 will pays, and was one of only two horses not covered in the P4 pays. The 7 horse was 5/1 when the gates opened, and 2/1 crossing the finish line. Strange.

Ez

Last edited by ezrabrooks; 02-14-2009 at 09:31 PM.
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Old 02-14-2009, 10:45 PM   #42
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my mother had a nice saying for that ezra, she said go tell city hall!
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Old 02-14-2009, 10:48 PM   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
my mother had a nice saying for that ezra, she said go tell city hall!
You should have taken her advice before starting this Thread...

Ez
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Old 02-14-2009, 10:49 PM   #44
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you missed a better one yesterday at sunland, there was a horse that left the gate @ 1-9, he broke dead last and his final price was 8-5. of course there was $12k to win on him before the race started, but when the race finished there was only $7k. i guess things just happen. you better go tell city hall, they will do just as much about this problem as the racetracks who broker these wagers.
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Old 02-15-2009, 09:56 AM   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
you missed a better one yesterday at sunland, there was a horse that left the gate @ 1-9, he broke dead last and his final price was 8-5. of course there was $12k to win on him before the race started, but when the race finished there was only $7k. i guess things just happen. you better go tell city hall, they will do just as much about this problem as the racetracks who broker these wagers.
What race was this? I can't see anything in the charts from 2/13 that matches.
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