I wish NYRA would put their rain machine away! They were off the turf today, Friday, but the weather forecast for Saturday looks positive. If I were a betting man, I’d say races 1, 3, 5 and 11, tomorrow will be off and races 6, 8 and 9 will remain on, that said, of course, the place will probably be underwater.
Not really impressed with the card. I might just play chalky multi-race bets. Really hard to dig out any value, but here goes.
R2:
Pete's Play Call 6-1
Using the horse-for-the-course(HFTC) angle here. His two tries at Belmont were decent enough, including a win and (two back) a third place finish at similar conditions.
R3:
Source Control 12-1
Another HFTC, if you look at his Bel attempts ever since he broke his maiden there last year, you’ll see two third-place finishes and one second. Draw a line through his last two, which were at the spa. You don’t usually get Irad at that price either. But again, this race will probably be off-the-turf so probably pass.
R4:
Firery Tale 8-1
Second-time starter adding Lasix is an angle I like. Been looking good in the morning too.
R5:
Trish the Dish 15-1
Third-time starter, first-time Lasix. Another probable washout though.
R6:
Complicit 9-2
Got caught in traffic last time and I believe the outer post will help. Pretty good price for an Irad-Chad Brown runner. Two wins at BEL this year. Will be flying late.
R7:
Sightforsoreeyes 30-1
He’s back on dirt. For some reason, they switch him to turf his last two tries, which didn’t work. His last win was on the rail. I like the balance of the Timeform pace figures- 92, 94. Most everyone else has an early much larger than a late, which bodes for a speed meltdown. At 30-1, why not?
R8:
Sadler's Joy 5-1
Three-back he almost caught Spring Quality in the G1 Manhattan at this same track. Late TF pace figure of 132, the largest in the field.
R9:
Forty Under 6-1
This is a weird race. It’s a graded stakes but only two have actually competed against winners (5 & 7). Everyone else is coming off a maiden win or is still a maiden. This is Forty Under’s third race, but only his 2nd on turf. For me, it’s his second race, and his first he won at this same distance/surface (drawing a line through his dirt effort).
R10:
Uno Mas Modelo 30-1
Won his last three handily. The 3, 8 & 6 will all be trying to get the lead. Uno Mas Modelo will be pressing and not too far back.
