Whenever a horse takes 'too much' $💵$, is he 'live'... or is he an 'underlay'??

[parlay]

Originally Posted by AndyC

There was $19,169 total bet in the DD pool for races 3 & 4. With 10 minutes or so to post how much money would you expect that there was in the pool? 5K? 7K?

Why would smart money forgo betting win money in the 3rd race to make a "score" in a pool of $19,169 by hiding their action?

They did not forgo anything. They bet win and dd offshore. They can only cash a capped amount offshore on the double so they took as much as they could on track. They bet win offshore at the higher odds and thus risked less money for same return. The 3 was the favorite in the race 3/4 dd pool. They also clearly knew the FTS in the 4th was very live.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by parlay

They did not forgo anything. They bet win and dd offshore. They can only cash a capped amount offshore on the double so they took as much as they could on track. They bet win offshore at the higher odds and thus risked less money for same return. The 3 was the favorite in the race 3/4 dd pool. They also clearly knew the FTS in the 4th was very live.

Winning players do not play with bookmakers. They get cut off.

[Redboard]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

We're talking about assuming every 'betdown' is some wise guy or whale making a score.

There are 100 bad (losing) punches for every winner, but somehow , only the random winners get noticed by the intelligentsia

I agree, sort of. But the topic here is trying predict the betting odds, since that is key to finding overlays.

it's my understanding that almost 1/2 of the bets made today are last minute computer batch betting.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

If horses have the same ML such as 20-1, the horse with lowest last race odds gets the lower number. FTS'rs are considered a higher number than one with any odds in last race. While I didn't say which races were better plays, lone FTS are usually better plays if their proportionate odds rank them lower. Graded stakes not as much, but lower stakes are still in play.
In the old days, pre-internet and simulcasting, there were old guys with their coke bottle glasses sitting in front of the exotic boards at the track recording the will pays for doubles and exactas onto their clip boards. Today I just load this link to my laptop or phone:

https://www.drf.com/live_odds

You then just pick your track and current race and click on doubles or exactas. The best way to look at will pays, is check the payoffs with the next race ML favorite, or any horse you deem to be the probable favorite. That link also shows pool numbers for WPS as well as exotics. When I have my laptop, I can use an excel program to do the math for me quickly.(edit) I usually downgrade any 30-1 ML to 20-1 to double check if it would still be a play. And never use a 50-1 ML, change it 30-1 or even 20-1. Big class drops with high ML's are usually a bad play. This will sound counter-intuitive to normal handicapping logic, but horse with terrible lines that are looking to be the play are the best plays using this. Ask yourself, who the h_!! is playing this dog?

If you don't already have an account, you can register for free.

Again, thanks for your detailed explanation. I was not familiar with Al Illich but see that he has a book that can be read online.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by parlay

They did not forgo anything. They bet win and dd offshore. They can only cash a capped amount offshore on the double so they took as much as they could on track. They bet win offshore at the higher odds and thus risked less money for same return. The 3 was the favorite in the race 3/4 dd pool. They also clearly knew the FTS in the 4th was very live.

That didn't really answer my question. You stated "The winning double into the 4th was paying $20 with 10 minutes or so to post. All the win money on the winner of the 3rd was hidden in the doubles. "

With so little money in the DD pool with 10 minutes to post, what is being hidden a $10 DD ticket?

[parlay]

Originally Posted by AndyC

That didn't really answer my question. You stated "The winning double into the 4th was paying $20 with 10 minutes or so to post. All the win money on the winner of the 3rd was hidden in the doubles. "

With so little money in the DD pool with 10 minutes to post, what is being hidden a $10 DD ticket?

i apologize for not being able to provide the exact numbers. The fact is the 3 was never better than the 6th choice in the win pool of 9 runners yet the winning DD combo was the lowest for much of the betting. Maybe someone else has access to the DD pool intervals and can present a more accurate picture. I happened to be looking to play the winner of the 4th and took a look into the DD pool of the 3rd to see if he was getting played, that is when i noticed the unusual action on the 3. I do not know how or why you think a $20 wager would be sufficient to create this anomaly, while the pool was not huge it still took a sizable bets to make the winning combo the lowest of all payoffs.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by AndyC

That didn't really answer my question. You stated "The winning double into the 4th was paying $20 with 10 minutes or so to post. All the win money on the winner of the 3rd was hidden in the doubles. "

With so little money in the DD pool with 10 minutes to post, what is being hidden a $10 DD ticket?

Can't really answer your question, but small DD pools often reveal these live plays. At Indiana just today in the 2nd race the total pool at post time was $7373, so at 10MTP it's probably half of that or maybe under 2000. Yet the double pool was revealing who was a live play while the win pool, not so much. I posted this on the selections thread pre-post time.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=148233

Shatterproof in Race 2 at Indiana was a standout play using doubles rankings. He was highest ML rank at 30-1, so he was #10 by rank. In the doubles, he was either #1 rank or an adjusted #4, which is either a +9 or a +6 ranking difference. He just missed the win, but paid 18.40 to place and 10.80 to show. I think he was legit 30-1 ML as his last two races at same level were pretty bad, 7th -13.25 bl's and 9th-47 bl's. I've told myself a hundred times, there's no way in hades I pick this horse to win using anything connected to handicapping. The wifi at the OTB wasn't cooperating, so I can't tell what the exactas were showing, but my guess is, exactas may have been showing similar live play on the

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Can't really answer your question, but small DD pools often reveal these live plays. At Indiana just today in the 2nd race the total pool at post time was $7373, so at 10MTP it's probably half of that or maybe under 2000. Yet the double pool was revealing who was a live play while the win pool, not so much. I posted this on the selections thread pre-post time.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=148233

Shatterproof in Race 2 at Indiana was a standout play using doubles rankings. He was highest ML rank at 30-1, so he was #10 by rank. In the doubles, he was either #1 rank or an adjusted #4, which is either a +9 or a +6 ranking difference. He just missed the win, but paid 18.40 to place and 10.80 to show. I think he was legit 30-1 ML as his last two races at same level were pretty bad, 7th -13.25 bl's and 9th-47 bl's. I've told myself a hundred times, there's no way in hades I pick this horse to win using anything connected to handicapping. The wifi at the OTB wasn't cooperating, so I can't tell what the exactas were showing, but my guess is, exactas may have been showing similar live play on the

Here are the final odds of the 2nd race at Indiana Grand...along with the $2 exacta payoffs with the winning :

13....118
15....198
7/2....72
43....279

26....177
19....184
18....191
4/5....42
34....295

The exacta pool was $35,841...and the DD pool was $7,373

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Here are the final odds of the 2nd race at Indiana Grand...along with the $2 exacta payoffs with the winning :

13....118
15....198
7/2....72
43....279

26....177
19....184
18....191
4/5....42
34....295

The exacta pool was $35,841...and the DD pool was $7,373

Thanks Thask. Using those figs with the winner it still tells me I was on the right track using totes to pick a live horse. I usually use the top two favorites exacta payoffs to see if there's confirmation on the double pools. Using my ranking method, it shows me the and were the live plays. They both show me a +6 in the rankings from their ML rankings. It would be interesting to see how the ranked in exacta payoffs with them using the payoffs. Just for comparison's sake, I reviewed the 's exacta ranking and he comes in dead last even though he was odds-on. When an odds-on favorite is last using my rankings method, he's ice cold and he ran up to that expectation. When they are a strong favorite, usually they rank #1 across the board using this method. I realize that on a board named Pace Advantage, this is most likely considered total buffoonery, and I don't look to convert anyone.
(edit) for some unknown reason, Indiana Grand was withholding their live odds numbers from the DRF site until it was almost post time yesterday. As this was only the 2nd time I've played that track, don't know if that's normal or not.

[FakeNameChanged]

Originally Posted by Whosonfirst

Thanks Thask. Using those figs with the winner it still tells me I was on the right track using totes to pick a live horse. I usually use the top two favorites exacta payoffs to see if there's confirmation on the double pools. Using my ranking method, it shows me the and were the live plays. They both show me a +6 in the rankings from their ML rankings. It would be interesting to see how the ranked in exacta payoffs with them using the payoffs. Just for comparison's sake, I reviewed the 's exacta ranking and he comes in dead last even though he was odds-on. When an odds-on favorite is last using my rankings method, he's ice cold and he ran up to that expectation. When they are a strong favorite, usually they rank #1 across the board using this method. I realize that on a board named Pace Advantage, this is most likely considered total buffoonery, and I don't look to convert anyone.
(edit) for some unknown reason, Indiana Grand was withholding their live odds numbers from the DRF site until it was almost post time yesterday. As this was only the 2nd time I've played that track, don't know if that's normal or not.

Actually I misspoke about the rankings difference above using exactas. The was a +6 but the was a +8. I mistakenly used 's post number instead of his ML rank.