The Curse of Apollo

[AskinHaskin]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

Mendelssohn is the answer.

Yeah, right, with his trainer 2-3-2 / 57 on U.S. dirt.


Most likely another dart-throwing exhibition.

[LoneF]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

No, Castellano got off him.

Mendelssohn is the answer.

BINGO !!!

[papillon]

Originally Posted by AskinHaskin

Yeah, right, with his trainer 2-3-2 / 57 on U.S. dirt.


Most likely another dart-throwing exhibition.

How many had dirt pedigrees?

[depalma113]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

The curse of Apollo will be broken, it almost got broken by Curlin a few years ago

Curlin lost the Derby by 8 lengths.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Curlin lost the Derby by 8 lengths.

To a horse who lucked into an opening on the rail.

[clicknow]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

No, Castellano got off him.

Mendelssohn is the answer.

Besides Meydan, there is actually another "stat" Mendelsohn has to deal with. Which is about as woo-woo as many of the others derby stats and curses.

Only 2 horses with foal dates in May have ever won the KY Derby. War Admiral and Mine that Bird.

Of course, this doesn't bode well for Magnum Moon, Free Drop Billy, Combatant should he make the gate, or Promises.

Dick Powell puts this together every year, along with dosage indexes, it's interesting, but he doesn't go as far back as I did.
https://www.twinspires.com/blog/2018...d-dosage-index

Am I going to wager based on this? Nope. But it has no more or less potency than any of the other silly curses.

But the traditional wisdom for derby winners has always been feb/march/april births. For TC winners, March.

[upthecreek]

http://www.danonymousracing.com/expe...iassek-part-1/

http://www.danonymousracing.com/expe...iassek-part-2/

[biggestal99]

Originally Posted by depalma113

Curlin lost the Derby by 8 lengths.

He was smashed by Street Sense.

Allan

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by biggestal99

He was smashed by Street Sense.

Allan

Have you watched a tape of that race?

Street Sense got very lucky. 9 times out of 10 he gets shut off and doesn't win. Focusing on the winning margin is not a very accurate way to view this.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by upthecreek

http://www.danonymousracing.com/expe...iassek-part-1/

http://www.danonymousracing.com/expe...iassek-part-2/

I read a bunch of stuff before prior Derbies about how you had to be on the experimental handicap (you don't), you had to have 4.00 or lower dosage and 1.25 or lower center of distribution (you don't), you had to have 6 starts (you don't), you had to start within 5 weeks of the race (you don't), and you couldn't go off favored (you can).

ALL of those "statistics" have been debunked.

So explain to me why I should believe that if Justify had one more start on December 31, 2017 that he would be the legitimate favorite but because of something he didn't do 5 months ago he becomes a toss?

I am sorry, people can write as much as they want about this, but it is still wrong.

EDIT: I forgot- you couldn't be a gelding or have post 20 either.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

ALL of those "statistics" have been debunked...
...So explain to me why I should believe that if Justify had one more start on December 31, 2017

Statistics are subject to interpretation. I still believe dosage has some relevancy but it is obviously not the be all end all. I still don't want my horse in post 20 but if it fits everything else I'm going to bet it. I don't think the rail is as lethal as it's made out to be either. I'm comfortable suggesting Chrome or Pharoah would been just fine there.

Per your statement on Justify, the specific calendar date is likely irrelevant. I suspect the lack of unraced as two year old winners is a result of lacking early training/conditioning pointing to the Derby. One could always chalk up any stat as a fluke but the longer the pattern persists, the smaller the margin of error becomes. Justify could win but I personally won't be flashing more than saver wager bankroll his way. He doesn't appear head and shoulders above this crowd to force me to ignore his knocks and accept 5/2 odds. I already have him covered via the All Others button over and under a few horses in the Future 1 & 2 pools.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by f2tornado

One could always chalk up any stat as a fluke but the longer the pattern persists, the smaller the margin of error becomes.

The rest of your post contains some reasonable comments but this statement is only true if you have a homogenous sample.

If the Derby is changing over time and trends are occurring that would make it more likely that a horse who didn't race as a 2 year old might win, then the persistence of the pattern is not increasing the confidence level.

[Tom]

The population (Derby) is not the same at it was 20 years ago.
Therefore, to get a large sample, you have to mix populations.
Not a good idea.

The last few years, without the sprinters, the whole Derby pace structure has changed.

[metro]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

To a horse who lucked into an opening on the rail.

Albarado, Curlin's jockey, lost that race more than the horse did. The inside was good that day and all Robby had to do was secure a forward position from his 2 post. Instead he let Leparoux on the turf plodder Sedgefield beat him out of the gate and the inside stalking trip. Meanwhile, Curlin was relegated to a two to three wide trip and by the time they hit the top of the lane his race was essentially over.

[chiguy]

OMG I just figured out the Derby winner!!!! Bolt is the winner based on the following:

• Ruis racing silks are green
• There is a shamrock on the helmet of their silks
• Bolt was born on March 17th
• March 17th is St. Patricks Day