No real PROOF of PAST POSTING!

[cj]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

In the modern day, there is no way to past-post (meaning making a bet after the pools have been closed) unless there has been a technical failure of some sort. The only way for a bet to be placed after the race starts (but before the pool closes) is if the person in charge of locking the pools delays doing so or outright just forgets to. In normal operations, those failures are caught before the race goes official, and in most cases the guest site is thrown out, or the entire race is refunded.

Additionally, the TRPB now has a tote security monitoring system that gets an audit feed from everyone, and any widespread instance of this would have been caught a long time ago.

The close-cancel delay (which Dave described) has been eliminated from nearly everywhere. Seem to recall at the last 2020 Meeting someone mentioning there was only one outlet left that still had it, but don't remember who. Keep in mind, that delay wouldn't allow you to wager, just to cancel a wager already placed. When I was a teller, it had to be the last ticket you punched.

Closing the pools early won't change the late money swings people are discussing here. A large portion of the pool is still going to come at the last flash, and the odds are still going to move the same way. The only thing that would change is you would be able to see the final odds before the gate opened (but still not before you made your bet).

I don't know how to do it from a operational standpoint, but to fix the problem being discussed here, you would have to shut the computer players out of the game completely, or shut them out at 1-2 MTP and leave the wagering open for everyone else. Of course the large teams would eventually figure out a way around that and you'd be back to square one again.

The "real-time" video feed being described certainly doesn't exist now. Even if it did at some point in the past, it offers no advantage now other than to a live human who is trying to make a bet at the last possible moment hoping to see one more odds flash. The pools don't lock based on a video feed. The pools lock when a human being watching the race live locks them at the host track, so a faster video feed is not going to allow you to see the break when others can't and bet accordingly. Jay68802, your experiment would fail.

If you were doing in-race betting, then yes being able to see something before someone else does would matter. Anyone doing that would be best served to be on-track watching live.

I recently had one of our better players tell me that he thought the pools were becoming much more efficient at the bigger tracks, and as a result he was finding fewer overlays and his ROI was declining. That tells me there are more computer players in the pools and that they are likely hitting on the same horses even if they get there by different methodologies. I do know from looking at the Hong Kong pools that they are very efficient, and there is a ton of computer play there, so his suspicions make sense.

Why is a person locking the pools? Seems like it should be tied to the gate or some other electronic system. (just like timing, but that is another story)

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I have a problem, I would love to try it but can't. My ADW shows the track I live closest to, but I am not allowed to wager on it through the ADW. I want to take my laptop to the track, sit where I can watch the races, and most importantly the start, and see if I can wager, or cancel a wager after I see the start of the race live. The theory being that because the ADW is showing a delayed broadcast of the race, I should be able to bet or cancel a bet through them, right after the start of the race.

Phone a friend.
(Not me.)

[Jeff P]

Originally Posted by toddbowker

...The "real-time" video feed being described certainly doesn't exist now. Even if it did at some point in the past, it offers no advantage now other than to a live human who is trying to make a bet at the last possible moment hoping to see one more odds flash. The pools don't lock based on a video feed. The pools lock when a human being watching the race live locks them at the host track, so a faster video feed is not going to allow you to see the break when others can't and bet accordingly...

Clarifying my previous post about how being forced to watch delayed track video puts the everyday player at a disadvantage in today's environment:

Track video in real time would enable all players everywhere to KNOW with vastly improved accuracy WHEN a race is about to go off. And from there know when to hit the submit button.

If the ability to place last second wagers no one else can react to is an advantage - and I'm convinced that it is an advantage:

Imo, Track video in real time would be a big improvement from an integrity of the game standpoint vs. what we have now.




-jp

.

[Irishfever]

Originally Posted by cj

Why is a person locking the pools? Seems like it should be tied to the gate or some other electronic system. (just like timing, but that is another story)

A bird or something else could trip the mechanism.

[cj]

Originally Posted by Irishfever

A bird or something else could trip the mechanism.

Not if tied into the gate. That happens once in a blue moon with the beams.

[dasch]

We KNOW 100% odds change DURING races otherwise there would be nothing to dispute, so why is the burden of proof ONLY put on proving that there is past posting and not the opposite? Several people have posted on how timestamps can and have been manipulated and I would think anybody with "real" proof would be involved in some way. Too much money would be involved to not have the highest security possible.

And the title change to "No real" as opposed to something like "PROOF of PAST POSTING(IMO)" goes along that same line. To the OP it was proof to him, but I guess its for the moderators to decide.

100% FACT is that the odds change DURING races.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by dasch

100% FACT is that the odds change DURING races.

Yeah, we know. It's because the tracks won't update their ****ing ancient systems, which also brings into question security, which also brings into question past posting.

Massive amounts of pool data isn't received by the tote until after the race is off...that's why the odds change...not necessarily because somebody is punching $100,000 worth of bets after the gates open....

[AlsoEligible]

I wasn't going to chime in on this since I've already argued most of these points ad nauseam in the other thread, but I do want to say that Todd's post hits all the nails on the head. A+

Originally Posted by toddbowker

Seem to recall at the last 2020 Meeting someone mentioning there was only one outlet left that still had it, but don't remember who.

Oaklawn is the only facility that still uses a close-cancel delay that I'm aware of. They're also one of the only major tracks that refuses to let the CRW teams wager on them, so it's kind of a moot point as far as the past-post theory goes.

I know CRW is the boogeyman of the industry right now, but at the end of the day their money is going through the same wagering network as everyone else, going into the same tote systems as everyone else. There's no special switch letting their money come in after the pools lock. There's no special data feed giving them secret information (trifecta payoffs, etc) that anyone else can't scrape from an ADW.

I worked for one of the major totes for 10 years, sitting in a hub every day that handled upwards of $2 billion a year in CRW money. If there was something nefarious going on I would be the first person to blow the whistle on it. But there wasn't. And I'm sure it's the same at the other tote companies; the conspiracy would simply involve too many people (not to mention the tracks themselves) to keep it under wraps. As an industry we're just too damn incompetent for that.

It's smart money coming in at the last possible second, from full-blown teams that have spent years developing algorithms to generate bets on likely winners. The only edge they have over the public is being able to afford a team who can input all of this data over the course of thousands of races, and then analyze it to find patterns in the noise. I know for a fact that some of these teams used to do the same thing on Wall Street, and have moved to horse racing because it's easier money (with a free rebate to boot), and they can be a bigger fish in a smaller pond. It's handicapping on steroids, but it's not cheating.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

It's smart money coming in at the last possible second, from full-blown teams that have spent years developing algorithms to generate bets on likely winners. The only edge they have over the public is being able to afford a team who can input all of this data over the course of thousands of races, and then analyze it to find patterns in the noise. I know for a fact that some of these teams used to do the same thing on Wall Street, and have moved to horse racing because it's easier money (with a free rebate to boot), and they can be a bigger fish in a smaller pond. It's handicapping on steroids, but it's not cheating.

I stated as much (although a bit more excitedly) just now in another thread. I can't believe people would rather buy into the past posting meme, rather than the very easy to believe notion that there are people out there WAY SMARTER than you or I, and WAY BETTER funded.

Like I said in the other thread, picking winners isn't akin to splitting the atom. And making a solid profit in this game isn't some miracle performed by Christ himself, although some people can't see it any other way.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Yeah, we know. It's because the tracks won't update their ****ing ancient systems, which also brings into question security, which also brings into question past posting.

Massive amounts of pool data isn't received by the tote until after the race is off...that's why the odds change...not necessarily because somebody is punching $100,000 worth of bets after the gates open....

I have read you and other respected posters say the same but bottom line is saying these things is not actual proof to anybody that believes that past posting is going on. Personally I don't have proof on either side and am able to still make a living in the current environment, but sure am not happy when a horse I bet gets an easy lead and drops half in price.

It's the same when people keep saying these "invisible" CRW teams are smarter than everybody else on the planet and that's why your horse dropped in half. Odds changing during races seem to coincidentally coincide with the flow of the race more often than not including bad starts, and while this is not actual proof who could blame anybody for being suspicious?

[PaceAdvantage]

Early speed has always been an advantage...so it stands to reason they would be on horses with early speed more often than not, don't you think?

[AlsoEligible]

Originally Posted by dasch

I have read you and other respected posters say the same but bottom line is saying these things is not actual proof to anybody that believes that past posting is going on.

I'm curious as to what standard of proof would be enough for the people who are convinced that this past posting is a wide-spread issue.

Todd already pointed out that when a race closes, the TRPB gets an audit file from every wagering hub that lists every single bet made, and the time it was made. Any instance of past-posting is known immediately, and the money from that guest site is thrown out.

Would it be enough if the TRPB made those list of bets publicly available? Or would people then move on to suggesting that the timestamps were altered (which I think I already saw in one of these threads), and suggesting that the TRPB and/or the totes were complicit in the cover-up?

I don't blame anyone for being suspicious; racing absolutely has a perception problem. But the burden of proof usually falls on the person(s) making the claim...if it's up to the accused to prove a negative, then some specific ideas on how to do that would be a good starting point.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

I'm curious as to what standard of proof would be enough for the people who are convinced that this past posting is a wide-spread issue.

Todd already pointed out that when a race closes, the TRPB gets an audit file from every wagering hub that lists every single bet made, and the time it was made. Any instance of past-posting is known immediately, and the money from that guest site is thrown out.

Would it be enough if the TRPB made those list of bets publicly available? Or would people then move on to suggesting that the timestamps were altered (which I think I already saw in one of these threads), and suggesting that the TRPB and/or the totes were complicit in the cover-up?

I don't blame anyone for being suspicious; racing absolutely has a perception problem. But the burden of proof usually falls on the person(s) making the claim...if it's up to the accused to prove a negative, then some specific ideas on how to do that would be a good starting point.

I don't claim to know about who or what is involved on that end only that we know as 100% fact that odds change DURING the race and I personally feel from a customer's perspective that it's the tote company's/racetrack's responsibility to prove past posting is not happening.

What is amazing to me is that people on one side of the issue with no actual proof can think that anybody on the other side is crazy for believing what they do with no proof!

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by AlsoEligible

I'm curious as to what standard of proof would be enough for the people who are convinced that this past posting is a wide-spread issue.

Todd already pointed out that when a race closes, the TRPB gets an audit file from every wagering hub that lists every single bet made, and the time it was made. Any instance of past-posting is known immediately, and the money from that guest site is thrown out.

Would it be enough if the TRPB made those list of bets publicly available? Or would people then move on to suggesting that the timestamps were altered (which I think I already saw in one of these threads), and suggesting that the TRPB and/or the totes were complicit in the cover-up?

I don't blame anyone for being suspicious; racing absolutely has a perception problem. But the burden of proof usually falls on the person(s) making the claim...if it's up to the accused to prove a negative, then some specific ideas on how to do that would be a good starting point.

I'm gonna guess a lot of people believe these wealthy CRW teams are paying off a boatload of people to look the other way, and let the past posting continue.

[dasch]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

I'm gonna guess a lot of people believe these wealthy CRW teams are paying off a boatload of people to look the other way, and let the past posting continue.

Who is saying that the CRW teams and past posters have to be the same people?