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04-22-2018, 12:43 PM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Whats funny is I hit a FTS to run in the money in a contest at Kee yesterday. I hated every starter who had run and just picked a horse with a couple good works from decent barn.
There was nothing magical about the pick and was more random luck then anything. I didnt know he would come onto the track at 3/1 from 10/1 ML. The other horse I almost picked was dead on the board and ran no where.
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04-23-2018, 06:46 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 3,089
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Used to not play maiden races. Now they are my best play. FTS make great longshot plays...in the right situations. As others have said, especially where you dont think much of the 'experienced' runners
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04-23-2018, 08:21 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: new york
Posts: 1,631
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there is an old adage i remember harvey pack use to say about firsters, on his long ago tv show. "first time belongs to the stable".
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04-23-2018, 08:41 PM
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#19
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Registered Loser
Join Date: Apr 2002
Posts: 2,633
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At least one 5 furlong workout , steady workouts over a 6 week period, a 3 or 4 furlong workout less than a week before the race.
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04-24-2018, 06:01 AM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,725
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Watch the opening odds and see which horse opens low and than drifts up.
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04-24-2018, 10:55 AM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Audubon, PA
Posts: 427
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Look at the figures of the horses who have run - If none of them have run within two lengths of the par figure for the final speed par of the class of today's race, then the race is more vulnerable to being won by a first time starter. Common exceptions to this guideline include:
a) the presence of a horse who is dropping from MdSpWt to Mdn Claiming, especially when combined with blinkers on and/or first time lasix
b) the presence of a horse who projects to a clear lead at the first and second call
Hope this helps.
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04-24-2018, 11:49 AM
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#22
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
When half the field is comprised of firsters...then I don't give the race a second look. In the other cases, the quality of the more "experienced" competition will decide how I will approach the remaining firsters. The more accomplished the experienced horses look...the more I will doubt the winning chances of even the well-regarded firsters. If the field looks below average ability-wise, then I will include a "well-connected" firster in my horizontal wagers...but I never have enough confidence to wager on such a horse to win. I mean...even Secretariat lost his first race.
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With betting money - That's what I look for. A vulnerable favorite among those who have run.
Sometimes you've got a vulnerable favorite, and it's as simple as saying that the FTSs haven't proven that they can't win, so you use them in some fashion
for general interest or an add-on to a multi-race wager- trainer/owner/jockey/works/tote or at least morning line if betting early...
Beware the 'buzz' horse FTS... Usually flashy works for a flashy trainer. They are useful to include in a multi-race sequence, but taking a short price to win is hit-or-miss.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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04-24-2018, 11:52 AM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 379
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Use to just turn the page if majority of the field was first time starters.
But.. the BRIS Pedigree # can give you some nice long shots.
Especially on the Turf
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04-24-2018, 02:59 PM
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#24
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First Time Gelding
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 642
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Many good comments on here. I like to see at least one gate workout that is a relatively quick one and not a slow one. I don’t like to see a horse purchased for less than the stud fee. I like to see good trainer stats for first time starters. I like to see a good pedigree that fits the upcoming race. I like to see sires and broodmares with good first time starter numbers.
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04-24-2018, 03:33 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Fort Worth,Texas
Posts: 606
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[SIZE="7"]Don't bet against a maiden that won his last race. They do win and get disqualified.
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04-24-2018, 05:30 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,827
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Watch the post parade and note who the larger horses are, keep a list of the ones that appear to be bigger. Also make notes of who is good and the ones that are bad behavior wise.
__________________
Every time you are tempted to react in the same old way, ask if you want to be a prisoner of the past or a pioneer of the future.
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04-25-2018, 11:52 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
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Not helpful in the big picture but...
I'm 3 for 3 with FTS from a certain trainer at Del Mar who I see pounding the machines in a particular out of the way corner early in the day.
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04-27-2018, 09:18 AM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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you can't bet first time starters. The backside has a huge advantage as they know who can run and who cannot. Workouts don't mean much.
After they have run a time or two, then it is a different story.
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04-27-2018, 10:25 AM
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#29
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,858
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But you have to address FTS when you play horizontals, so you have to take a stand or but a race. You might also find nice exactas using a low-priced FTS with an in and outer who looks to be an inner today.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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04-27-2018, 11:04 AM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,694
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I never paid a lot of attention to trainers other than what is listed in the later versions of the racing form. I only bet races loaded with first timers if they are stuck in a pick six where there is a carryover and the other races look playable. Correct me if I am wrong but it seems the tote board means a lot with first timers, rarely does a horse run well if it is dead on the board compared to the money he should have pulled. Another phenomenon that baffles me is when a horse has a 6F gate work at a speed good enough to win the typical maiden race but is dead on the board, never picks up it's feet and is beaten by double digit lengths.
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