R8 Saratoga $100K NY Stallion Series 1 Mile Turf - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

Lemon Drop Husker · 08-09-2017, 09:53 PM

Mowed my lawn today.

Is there a greater thinking spot for a man (other than the Porcelain throne and Vegas), in which he can just get away and just do what he needs to do?

During that mow, self said to self, how about the 8th at 'Toga tomorrow?

Paz the Bourbon: Gonna be dead chalk fav..... on paper. Hennig is 0 for 13 this meet. Javier is great;..... on the right horse.

She's Dreamin: Always bet. Obviously just broke her maiden, but she has always had somewhat of a say.

Emiliana's Hope: An improving gal that was pressed into a tough spot last out. This won't get easier.

Lady Joan: Likely favorite is in form, and class of the field. Can she get a 2 turn mile?

Hollywood Cat: Not without a chance, but would be tough to see. JV takes the irons, so maybe...., just maybe....

Lover's Key: Exacta in 4 of last 5 and won 4 of those races. In form, and only the

has kept her imperfect in the last 5. Exacta will pay $10.50.

Silly Numbers: Hard to ignore Jose Ortiz inn ANY horse race at 'Toga right now.

Carry Your Heels: 4th in that same ol' same ol' race behind the

. The 'other' Ortiz on the outside?

SUMMARY: Throwing horizontal picks aside, I'm gonna fire the

as actually having a chance at likely more than her ML odds of 6/1.

ReplayRandall · 08-09-2017, 10:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Throwing horizontal picks aside, I'm gonna fire the

as actually having a chance at likely more than her ML odds of 6/1.

What concerns me on the

is NO works since last race of 26 days ago, yet never missed working between races before. Bush is 0 for 17 first time trying a route and is winless at the meet...Tread lightly, just saying.

Lemon Drop Husker · 08-09-2017, 11:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

What concerns me on the

is NO works since last race of 26 days ago, yet never missed working between races before. Bush is 0 for 17 first time trying a route and is winless at the meet...Tread lightly, just saying.

Ha. Thanks.

What worries me most is she is always overbet. And when she wasn't, the

spanked her.

Somebody in this mess is gonna get better and win this, and likely by open lengths.

No easy play here.

ReplayRandall · 08-10-2017, 12:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Ha. Thanks.

What worries me most is she is always overbet. And when she wasn't, the

spanked her.

Somebody in this mess is gonna get better and win this, and likely by open lengths.

No easy play here.

Ha...te the race, you know what I mean? Looks junky chalk 4/6, pass..

Lemon Drop Husker · 08-10-2017, 12:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Ha...te the race, you know what I mean? Looks junky chalk 4/6, pass..

Yeah. I know.

Worst card at 'Toga thus far.

6th is the race, but who is running?

How do you 'cap, and put to "ink" 6 AE's just waiting in an already loaded and tough race?

Race isn't put there for no reason. (As I'm sure you know).

ReplayRandall · 08-10-2017, 12:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Yeah. I know.

Worst card at 'Toga thus far.

6th is the race, but who is running?

How do you 'cap, and put to "ink" 6 AE's just waiting in an already loaded and tough race?

Race isn't put there for no reason. (As I'm sure you know).

Do you think we should let anyone reading this thread know what we're referring to??

Lemon Drop Husker · 08-10-2017, 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Do you think we should let anyone reading this thread know what we're referring to??

No.

PhantomOnTour · 08-10-2017, 02:36 AM

I keep coming back to the

Silly Numbers.
I think she's all set to run her lifetime best.

Aerocraft67 · 08-10-2017, 10:27 AM

The pace was slow on softer going when many of these met at Belmont June 25. Figures to be fast today. Maybe just invert the early and late running prospects.

Overall I like the

best. Similar proposition as

with better odds and trainer patterns. Knows how to win and has raced tougher than these more consistently. Usually on the lead but made up 10 lengths to prevail three back. But tough to take much of her at likely 2/1 second choice. And may be due for a rest.

The

is a logical favorite but I see enough dubious stats in the trainer moves here to bet against her.

I do like the prospects of late runners here, particularly underneath, but hard to pick them apart. Not sure whether they're just not good enough to be on top or whether one will emerge with a substantial step forward as a 3 y.o. at a price. Sounds like that's where you guys are headed.

Can't deny the upside of the

in her fourth race, after closing down a hot pace from 5th three back to break her maiden last. but is she ready to stretch out to prevail over these?

The

and

can win with pace in front of them, which they look to get, just need a step forward. Not seeing any positive catalyst with trainer moves—a bit negative, actually. Both worthwhile underneath.

The

seems the most likely off the pace but her odds reflect that. Trainer stats a bit more solid than others.

The

looks to be forward but not enough to pass the others on the lead. Toss.

What do you do with the

? Projected to get the lead but has never led. Also has the weakest late pace assessment, but broke her maiden from 5th three lengths off a decent pace two back with a strong late run—prevailing over the

. More unfavorable trainer patterns here, but could be the sleeper.

If the

takes enough money, the

could be a play, maybe with the

and a couple of the highest prices underneath that are not the

, like the

,

.

Should be a good race.

CincyHorseplayer · 08-10-2017, 10:42 AM

It's tough to interpret this mish mash of sprint and route races with changing rail settings which is why I hate Belmont just pouring on turf sprint races early in the season. But what I am seeing from most of this field is fast finishes vs slow paces and dreadful finishes vs fast paces. Leaving me to

whose losing effort 2 back was the best finish vs the fastest pace of the bunch. Last out a fast finishing 3rd against a slow pace where the 1-2 finishers ran 1-2 throughout the race. I'd love to take this one at even 7/2 but that is probably wishful thinking. I think there is probably more bottom the

as she faced a legit pace last out IMO.

On pedigree there are some interesting ones in here but I like

Carry Your heels. A few Freuds but like the Leroidesanimaux cross. This is a Storm Cat(Northern Dancer) over another front turfy sire that comes from the Blushing Groom line of Nasrullah, the most productive other than the Grey Sovereign line from that sire line. 2 back race was decent and comes out of that same 7/15 race in which all closers were at the mercy of 2 slow frontrunners. Think there is more bottom in this one too.

Aerocraft67 · 08-10-2017, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aerocraft67

What do you do with the

? Projected to get the lead but has never led. Also has the weakest late pace assessment, but broke her maiden from 5th three lengths off a decent pace two back with a strong late run—prevailing over the

. More unfavorable trainer patterns here, but could be the sleeper.

All that and just the 5th race for this one.

olddaddy · 08-10-2017, 12:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker

Worst card at 'Toga thus far.

5 of 9 races are state bred, not good.

Aerocraft67 · 08-10-2017, 04:39 PM

The

and

took some early money. Actually,

opened as co-favorite with

at 3/1.

cj · 08-10-2017, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I keep coming back to the

Silly Numbers.
I think she's all set to run her lifetime best.

She is 225 pounds over today (carrying me)

PhantomOnTour · 08-10-2017, 04:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cj

She is 225 pounds over today (carrying me)

LOL...don't forget me.
Let's call it an even 400lbs over

Seriously though, fig patterns say she's set to run a good one.
Good luck CJ