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07-30-2017, 11:42 AM
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#16
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n.c
morning line 5/2
Focus group
owners : Klaravich Stables Inc and somebody
Klarvich- h edge fund guys
last 11 maiden claimers from Klarvich stables- 0-11, so not a good prop to bet on them when it comes to maiden claimers
But today, it is MSW
Across the board on Focus group today
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Hey N C
You might be on to something with Brown on the Turf
When I include the Morning line 3-1's and lower his record so far is pretty good in terms of returns since July 23rd 2017
His horses have hit the board in this situation in 6 out of their last 7 attempts and 6 of the last 6 have finished no worse than 2nd
You are getting a 27% return so far across the board per $2 win place and show wager so that might be a good wager!!!
Let's see what #8 Focus Group does in the 6th today at Saratoga!!!
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07-30-2017, 11:53 AM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Overall Brown's horses have won 3 of their last 6 races when their Morning Lines were less than 3-1 on the Turf so far at Saratoga
He has these today before scratches
Code:
RowNum: Date: Race: PgmNum: Horse: RaceCond: Distance: Trainer: Odds: Surface
1 07-29-2017 4th race 5 Triangulate (KY) Maiden Special Weight Five And One Half Furlongs C C Brown 7/2# Turf
2 07-29-2017 6th race 7 Call Provision (NY) Allowance Optional Claiming One And Three Eighth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
3 07-29-2017 7th race 8 Ack Naughty (NY) Allowance One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 5/2# Turf
4 07-29-2017 10th race 2 Cloud Computing (KY) Stakes One And One Eighth Miles C C Brown 6/5# Dirt
5 07-29-2017 11th race 2 Durable Goods (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 3/1# Turf
6 07-29-2017 11th race 3 Wake Island (KY) Maiden Special Weight One And One Sixteenth Miles C C Brown 9/2# Turf
Let's concentrate on these today
6th race
#7 Call Provision
7th race
#8 Ack Naughty
Let's see if he can get one of these to win today!!!
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Well 6th race #7 Call Provision finished 2nd in the 7th race yesterday but #8 Ack Naughty was able to get the win for Brown
If you wagered across the board on these two yesterday you made 50% on your money not too shabby for some projected favorites!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the #8 Ack Naughty play and was able to make a profit!!!
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07-30-2017, 12:00 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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Saratoga- Brown loves Saratoga
his horses will probably do better in Saratoga, and he will be going against
Pletcher for the title, every year. So you might get better returns on your $$$$ at Saratoga.
He does have a multiple entry at MTH on Turf, both horses will be fav, but Castellano horse looks better on paper.
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07-30-2017, 12:15 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n.c
his horses will probably do better in Saratoga, and he will be going against
Pletcher for the title, every year. So you might get better returns on your $$$$ at Saratoga.
He does have a multiple entry at MTH on Turf, both horses will be fav, but Castellano horse looks better on paper.
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Yeah, it's too bad the title is not based on returns per $2 wager neither of them would win it but instead it's based on how much money they earn
I guess that's how it goes
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07-30-2017, 08:41 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n.c
morning line 5/2
Focus group
owners : Klaravich Stables Inc and somebody
Klarvich- h edge fund guys
last 11 maiden claimers from Klarvich stables- 0-11, so not a good prop to bet on them when it comes to maiden claimers
But today, it is MSW
Across the board on Focus group today
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Hey bro,
Did you score Brown came through with this one today!!!
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07-30-2017, 08:57 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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yes, and got the pick 3, hehe long shot came in the 3rd leg of the pick 3
Monday-Race 2....Oiseau de Guerre- Brown horse, off a big layoff, at 8-1..This horse was odds on on debut, made a huge premature move and finished 2nd last year at Saratoga..Then Brown ran the horse in a G3( Oscar Perf won the race) and then later tried on Dirt..cannot believe the morning line has it at 8-1..Great work outs
Brown also has number 1.
Number 1 first time on turf...Castellano going with the 5..do not think that 5 will go out at 8-1.
2 year old to 3 year old improvement should make Oiseau a contender Monday.
Last edited by n.c; 07-30-2017 at 09:09 PM.
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07-30-2017, 09:01 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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if you go by the May/June workouts
Oiseau de Guerre will win by 142 lenghts great work outs..but conditioning after a big lay off is the question.
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07-30-2017, 09:39 PM
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#23
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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going to pass on Oiseau de Guerre
for Monday...will wait 1 race..no turf work outs either. Brown tried the horse on Dirt after 2 turf races..
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07-31-2017, 12:04 AM
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#24
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n.c
for Monday...will wait 1 race..no turf work outs either. Brown tried the horse on Dirt after 2 turf races..
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I can't believe Brown had 3 straight wins today!!!
That pretty much never happens..............that is until today !!!
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07-31-2017, 12:19 AM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle
Hey N C
You might be on to something with Brown on the Turf
When I include the Morning line 3-1's and lower his record so far is pretty good in terms of returns since July 23rd 2017
His horses have hit the board in this situation in 6 out of their last 7 attempts and 6 of the last 6 have finished no worse than 2nd
You are getting a 27% return so far across the board per $2 win place and show wager so that might be a good wager!!!
Let's see what #8 Focus Group does in the 6th today at Saratoga!!!
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As my esteemed colleague N.C. has pointed out Brown's horses are doing quite well lately when their Morning Line is less than 7-2 on the Turf!!!
#8 Focus Group came through today with a win and Brown's horses have now won 3 in a row on the Turf when their Morning Line is less than 7-2!!!
Interesting to note, that 6 of the last 7 have finished no worse than 2nd and his horses have hit the board 8 times in a row in this situation!!!
You are getting a 40% return per $2 win place and show wager and a 60% return per $2 win wager in this situation since July 23rd!!!
Congratulations to those who saw the #8 Focus Group play and were able to make a profit!!!
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07-31-2017, 02:06 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n.c
yes, and got the pick 3, hehe long shot came in the 3rd leg of the pick 3
Monday-Race 2....Oiseau de Guerre- Brown horse, off a big layoff, at 8-1..This horse was odds on on debut, made a huge premature move and finished 2nd last year at Saratoga..Then Brown ran the horse in a G3( Oscar Perf won the race) and then later tried on Dirt..cannot believe the morning line has it at 8-1..Great work outs
Brown also has number 1.
Number 1 first time on turf...Castellano going with the 5..do not think that 5 will go out at 8-1.
2 year old to 3 year old improvement should make Oiseau a contender Monday.
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Hey N C
He did it again multiple entries hit the board today on the Turf at Saratoga I am not a fan of exactas but it paid $59 as they ran 1st and 2nd today!!!
Did you score bro?
This is the 5th time he's done this so far at Saratoga !!!
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07-31-2017, 06:21 PM
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#27
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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got the tri and ex
i stayed away from Oiseau de Guerre due to no turf work out and the long layoff. It is a young horse..Brown had a G1 horse yesterday at MTH, off a layoff, and it won..but it was a G 1 horse stepping down in class and the older horse has m ore experience so it can win off a layoff.
keyed the 1 and 10..1 had a work out over the turf and 1 and 10 had the most upside improvement in this race..both 2nd race, so it could improve the performance by 10-20%. 7 did not have the upside improvement potential in this race, and the rest coming off a layoffs.
Oiseau de Guerre- will play it next time.
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07-31-2017, 06:55 PM
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#28
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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yesterday, Brown had a
2 year old dirt horse
it had 36 furlongs work out total at Saratoga
rest of the field combined had 52 furlong work outs over Saratoga
so 7 horses combined had 52 furlongs vs Chad Brown number 1 horse= 36 furlongs
loved the 1 , for Brown..negatives for the 2 year old??? number 1 post and rest of the horses all expensive buys...260,000, 270,000, 425,000,350,000 and Asmussen horse owner breeder
Morning li ne , number 1 was 5-1 and it opened as the fav at 2-1...you know this is barn putting the money on number 1.
It won by 2200 lengths. Romp.
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07-31-2017, 07:06 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 3,625
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Quote:
Originally Posted by n.c
2 year old dirt horse
it had 36 furlongs work out total at Saratoga
rest of the field combined had 52 furlong work outs over Saratoga
so 7 horses combined had 52 furlongs vs Chad Brown number 1 horse= 36 furlongs
loved the 1 , for Brown..negatives for the 2 year old??? number 1 post and rest of the horses all expensive buys...260,000, 270,000, 425,000,350,000 and Asmussen horse owner breeder
Morning li ne , number 1 was 5-1 and it opened as the fav at 2-1...you know this is barn putting the money on number 1.
It won by 2200 lengths. Romp.
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Hey N C
Ok so his barn might be playing his horses I need to start checking when the odds start to go down from the open
That's a good idea bro!!!
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07-31-2017, 07:12 PM
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#30
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 214
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on MSW
when the previous race before the MSW is finished, i will write down all the odds
it is like comparing notes..morning line guy is a guy who is always around the track, so he k n ows what he is doing..but if he thinks the horse 1 should be 5-1 and it opens up at 2-1, then you know that horse has a chance..
this is only for MSW...you are looking for discrepancy on odds.
If number 1 is a even money morning line and number 9 is 10-1 morning line, and
number 1 opens at even money and number 9 opens at 7-1 or 6-1, i will take a look at number 9. Pay little more attention to the 9, maybe include that horse in the exotics.
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