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Old 02-02-2017, 09:59 PM   #1
ReplayRandall
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Tweaking Your Game

Tweaking my methodologies over the years has been the difference in maintaining an edge. I would like to share a couple of "tweaks" I've found to be effective NOW, in today's game.

1. I do not play a horse in the win position ever, if they race WITHOUT lasix.

2. If a horse has "drifted" in one of its last 2 races, and has no layoff after the drift race, the horse is a throw-out for me.

3. My strongest plays in the win hole, almost always include a workout of at least 4F since their last race.

I know that some of you might disagree with my comments, but these tweaks have added a few % points to my +ROI. Let's hear what some of you have come up with and care to share....

PS...I don't really expect "trade" secrets here, just a few handicapping tighteners.
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Old 02-02-2017, 11:54 PM   #2
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I know that I've mentioned this more than once, but for those people that hate to play maidens, especially ones filled with lightly raced horses: the horse didn't run well enough in the debut to attract much attention - but had a good race or a little trouble or just even ran in spurts and drips - and is back for the second time and since the debut has at least one work that compares favorably with those prior to the debut. Often it's just the racing experience turned the switch on, sometimes it is the barn that deliberately has them fit but not cranked for the first and then drills down for the second trip. But, it has always been one of those exclamation marks on one that I'm looking at which has steered me to some live plays at good prices.
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Old 02-03-2017, 01:05 AM   #3
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on the first part, generally horses without lasix tend to go off at higher prices than the ones that don't. my guess is that it would come out in the wash.

lugged in is my favorite comment to bet on the next race out because its pretty easy to fix sometimes. often times it just requires an adjustment to the bit.

i never play horses that have the comment bore out next to them because that is almost a surefire sign that the horse is a hurting sore soul and needs time away from the races.
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Old 02-03-2017, 11:35 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
on the first part, generally horses without lasix tend to go off at higher prices than the ones that don't. my guess is that it would come out in the wash.

lugged in is my favorite comment to bet on the next race out because its pretty easy to fix sometimes. often times it just requires an adjustment to the bit.

i never play horses that have the comment bore out next to them because that is almost a surefire sign that the horse is a hurting sore soul and needs time away from the races.
Blowing the turn, then adding blinkers thinking that will solve it, immediate toss. Can't ever remember that working, and everybody gets all over it, particularly if the horse is front speed.

One tweak I've made is too not fret so much about price. There are still times when the price is too short, but I'm more likely to play a shorter priced horse, if I feel the price is fair, than I used to be. If I really feel the race is a particular horse's to win, I'm much more forgiving on price than I used to be. I have to be very careful I'm not being suckered in, but I am cashing more tickets now because I'm not passing as many races simply because of price.
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Old 02-03-2017, 11:58 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ultracapper
Blowing the turn, then adding blinkers thinking that will solve it, immediate toss. Can't ever remember that working, and everybody gets all over it, particularly if the horse is front speed.

One tweak I've made is too not fret so much about price. There are still times when the price is too short, but I'm more likely to play a shorter priced horse, if I feel the price is fair, than I used to be. If I really feel the race is a particular horse's to win, I'm much more forgiving on price than I used to be. I have to be very careful I'm not being suckered in, but I am cashing more tickets now because I'm not passing as many races simply because of price.
the thing that has killed me is that there are so many different bets to choose from and only so much money to bet on them that they all hurt the win pools. so i have to bet more smaller than i would like and the game turns out to be a complete waste of time. my other big problem is that i have nothing better to do. i think i am going to take up something else next year after the summer like some type of volunteer work that is more productive than horse race gambling.
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Old 02-03-2017, 12:18 PM   #6
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When top 2 contenders in a race are 3-1 or less no play(excepting horizontal).

Unless 2 of top 4 contenders in a race are 5-1 and up no vertical play.

Exception being a 2 horse race where each exacta combination is paying $30 or better.(using this as a rough payoff guideline to all vertical exotics)

Because I think a high volume of plays is essential, passing races with borderline profit potential is completely necessary.
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Old 02-03-2017, 12:49 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
the thing that has killed me is that there are so many different bets to choose from and only so much money to bet on them that they all hurt the win pools. so i have to bet more smaller than i would like and the game turns out to be a complete waste of time. my other big problem is that i have nothing better to do. i think i am going to take up something else next year after the summer like some type of volunteer work that is more productive than horse race gambling.
This is why I chose SoCal as my circuit of choice. My bets aren't so big to have a profound effect on Delmar or SA win pools, while some of my bets would stand out like a sore thumb at Emerald Downs. I never want my bets to look like "smart" money, attracting other bettors and depressing the price even more. In SoCal, I'm able to hide in the win pool. Most 7 or 8 horse fields will attract $125K-$150K in the win pool. That's more than enough for me to be comfortable I don't have the largest bet on any particular horse. At EMD, where $5K will have a horse at 2/1 with 2MTP, it's very difficult to be aggressive.
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Old 02-03-2017, 01:59 PM   #8
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For each horse in a race:
X = Average position at 1st call going back for all previous races for the year (not life).
Y = Average position at 2nd call going back for all previous races for the year (not life).

Contender if X - Y > 0 and ranks within top 3 for the field.

Throw out every race where any horse has no record.
Add this to your method, should increase strike rate but may reduce avg $.
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Old 02-04-2017, 07:53 PM   #9
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The less I play the better my roi
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Old 02-09-2017, 07:35 PM   #10
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Put the #1 ranked horse in 4th, and load the 3rd leg with mules.
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Old 02-09-2017, 08:17 PM   #11
BELMONT 6-6-09
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Make fewer bets. Real quality over Quantity. Never again making a bad percentage play!!Sounds simplistic but it is real the philosophy of not making more good bets but fewer bad ones. (prime bets), as I don't believe in action bets.
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Old 02-09-2017, 09:00 PM   #12
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I toss 1st timers who were sold at auction for cheaper than the stud fee 99% of the time
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Old 02-09-2017, 11:16 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BELMONT 6-6-09
Make fewer bets. Real quality over Quantity. Never again making a bad percentage play!!Sounds simplistic but it is real the philosophy of not making more good bets but fewer bad ones. (prime bets), as I don't believe in action bets.
this! and don't bet bad percentages ... no matter what you been told or think jockey does matter tho
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Old 02-09-2017, 11:59 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by arw629
I toss 1st timers who were sold at auction for cheaper than the stud fee 99% of the time
And conversely, any first time starter that sold at auction for 20 times his sire's stud fee will get a 2nd look from me.
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Old 08-14-2017, 11:52 PM   #15
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Serious Record Keeping

Do you want to know where you're making a profit, even though you've shown overall losses for the last few years? Check your records lately? Do you even keep records?

This may help you spot where your strengths/profits lie:

#1. Breakdown all your plays into 3 categories, Layoff horses(including first-time starters), second/third race from a layoff, and current condition horses.

#2. Now breakdown those categories into different tracks, then surface, sprints or routes, Class- Alw or above, claimers, maidens/mdclm, post-time odds and results. Optional- Blinks on/off and first-time Lasix.

#3. Once you keep these kind of records for at least 3 years, I guarantee you will find where the profit is in your game. It will also show you if you need to totally scrap your game and find something else to do with your time and money.

Are you UP for doing the work and finding out the truth about your game?......BTW, keep records in the order I specified above, #1 is what makes all the difference if done first.
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