Stock Market Prediction

[AltonKelsey]

Actually, I recently pointed out to someone here that a trade they put on had a lot more risk in it then they indicated.

When it blew up and maximum loss was achieved, we heard nothing .

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

Actually, I recently pointed out to someone here that a trade they put on had a lot more risk in it then they indicated.

When it blew up and maximum loss was achieved, we heard nothing .

i am pretty decent sized bridgjumper, and when 12 seconds after ARROGATE blew a guy called me to ask if i bet on the loser, i told him i did, but i actually made a huge score to the race because i can't stand ARROGATE and never cared for his miraculous win in Dubai.

it gets tiring when someone takes pleasure in someone else's misery. yes i am sick of losing money on SFOR and still own over 1 million shares. i also own plenty of gold that was as high as $1900 that i never sold any of it.

do i wish i sold at the top? sure i do, but i was not that smart. if i knew that gold was going down to $1050 i would have glady sold my insurance that turns out i didn't need at the top and bought back at $1050. but at least i posted the bottom on gold and some people here listened to it.

[PaceAdvantage]

Didn't you also post at the time that Gold might be going to $3k, $4k or beyond?

When you post somewhat "out there" stuff like that, expect some gloating against you when the obvious happens...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Didn't you also post at the time that Gold might be going to $3k, $4k or beyond?

When you post somewhat "out there" stuff like that, expect some gloating against you when the obvious happens...

i still do and now i am actually convinced that no dollar amount will ever mean anything when it comes to gold


I-N-S-U-R-A-N-C-E

and go gloating

[PaceAdvantage]

When did I gloat? I just disagreed with you...back then...and still do...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

When did I gloat? I just disagreed with you...back then...and still do...

i am going to give you a word to the wise now, you better get your head wrapped around precious metals. when its all said and done, gold will have value and paper currencies will be close to worthless if not completely worthless.

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am going to give you a word to the wise now, you better get your head wrapped around precious metals. when its all said and done, gold will have value and paper currencies will be close to worthless if not completely worthless.

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.

Don't you think Cryptocurrencies are muting Gold's gains at this point.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am going to give you a word to the wise now, you better get your head wrapped around precious metals. when its all said and done, gold will have value and paper currencies will be close to worthless if not completely worthless.

in my entire life of following equities and various markets, i have never seen anything stronger than the precious metals markets right now. and this is a living lock.

If paper currency becomes worthless, I'll have a lot more serious shit to worry about then the price of gold.

I don't know what you're going to use your gold to buy if paper becomes worthless...people will be paying more for ammo, toilet paper and cigarettes then they will for any gold you might have on hand...given your nightmare scenario...

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

If paper currency becomes worthless, I'll have a lot more serious shit to worry about then the price of gold.

I don't know what you're going to use your gold to buy if paper becomes worthless...people will be paying more for ammo, toilet paper and cigarettes then they will for any gold you might have on hand...given your nightmare scenario...

i don't think that is completely the case that we shall have. this very same scenario has played out in the world many times, usually the fiat has either been inflated or replaced with a new one. it happened in Weimar Germany back in 1921. it also happened during the Roman Empire. recently its happened in places like Argentina and Brazil.

fact is that the world didn't come to an end in either case. but if you held precious metals instead of currency you were able to get your ass out of these places and into places that were normal.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by jms62

Don't you think Cryptocurrencies are muting Gold's gains at this point.

that is probably the tip off that precious metals are going to be in big demand going forward.

with Bitcoin, people are flat out not trusting the government and would rather have this fraudulent currency.

people love gold, they love the way it feels and looks. its been a currency for over 5000 years now and will be for another 5000. the US dollar only has a 200 year history, most other currencies today are not much longer either.. every single time a currency has gone bad, gold stepped up to replace it.

[lamboguy]

catch this one, its trading at a 75% premium now to the underlying equity and is supposed to have a NAV of under $400 right now the way i see it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBTC?p=GBTC


i say buy gold and short this thing and you might have a great ride.

[AltonKelsey]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

catch this one, its trading at a 75% premium now to the underlying equity and is supposed to have a NAV of under $400 right now the way i see it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBTC?p=GBTC


i say buy gold and short this thing and you might have a great ride.

You just catching on to this one, old news already.

PS There were all manner of stock market gurus telling folks to short this at 300, 400, 500. That working out REALLY well, huh.

PS at this point you cant short it and if you could you'd pay huge daily fees to do it. So its only theoretical, cant be done

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by AltonKelsey

You just catching on to this one, old news already.

PS There were all manner of stock market gurus telling folks to short this at 300, 400, 500. That working out REALLY well, huh.

PS at this point you cant short it and if you could you'd pay huge daily fees to do it. So its only theoretical, cant be done

i know that and that's probably the reason why it hasn't traded at its NAV. i am comparing it to the Sprott family of precious metals funds. every time the premium of the fund took off, the underlying eventually got wrecked like what happened to silver.

i can't find a top to bitcoin yet, no clue if i could ever figure that one out. its impossible to find a top in anything that doesn't have volume. with bitcoin $3700 would have been a 1-1 and its way over that right now. there are dramatic gaps in Bitcoin that could bring it down to $2800 in a heartbeat.

[AltonKelsey]

bitcoin has volume

so thats not the reason the top is hard/impossible to figure

[n.c]

if the stock shows 20% eps growth, going forward( say 3-5 years), buy it every 4 months. Don't worry about the price you pay. Eventually stock will move 50 to 100% in 1 year. if IT SHOWS rev growth over 20% and suspect eps growth, it might still go up in this silly market, ie AMZN and CRM over the last 8 years.
Celg is one stock that i have for the next 3 years and MU for the next 12 months.

If the stock does not show any eps growth in the next 3-5 years, and it is very cheap, it might not move for 2-3 years..Gild, i do have..but no eps growth, but it is cheap. You could argue, it should be north of 100, selling at S&P AVG, AND Biotechs sell at higher price than reg market, but Gild has no growth, so it is stuck