March 22 at 10:59pm ·
🐎 LOUISIANA DERBY 🐎
selections and wagers
the rocking horse winner... = #8 LONE SAILOR (20/1! ML) 😲🤑
3yo $1,000,000 G2 Derby prep going 9 Furlongs.
Great betting race.
There are two horses likely to be overlays, and I will use a 'double-key' along with the long shot LONE SAILOR, as well as some wagers that suit each overlay.
First, the handicapping.
#1 BRAVAZO(7/2) = Honest horse with good early speed. Won last time in the RISEN STAR with a slow pace, and a game effort. Nice looking horse. There's a danger that he's the real deal, and that he will appreciate the added ground, and rumble away up front. I think we've already seen his 3yo peak. Must include.
#2 NOBLE INDY(7/2) = Although he's yet to face a hot pace, this is perhaps the best horse in the race. Todd Pletcher's iron is hot, and this is the time to strike. Unfortunately, he's unlikely to go off at 7/2 odds. He'll probably be the 'wise guy' horse by post time, and vie for favoritism in the 5/2 range... Chased the slow pace last time and ran fine inside with some minor trouble. Could be his coming out party. A 'Key'.
#3 MARMELLO(50/1) = Has faced some decent early pace, but has never shown indication that he belongs in a top Derby prep.
#4 GIVEMEAMINIT(20/1) = Hasn't put it together. Unlikely to contend, but we've all seen Dallas Stewart bring along some long shots. As a bonus, Javier Castellano rides. Mildly interesting underneath.
#5 RETIREMENT FUND(12/1) = Not a bad little horse. Hasn't yet proven that he can contend in stakes races. Seems to need the lead, and it won't be a free trip up front. Seems to clash with the style of another Steve Asmussen Racing Stable entrant.
#6 HYNDFORD(8/1) = Too cheap. However, he's in good form for a top barn. Potential to add value underneath if he has a good trip.
#7 SNAPPER SINCLAIR(9/2) = Win contender. Top jock Jose Ortiz adds a little versatility and a possible 'E/P' running style to try to make the most of his willing tactical speed and short late run.
#8 LONE SAILOR(20/1) = The rocking horse winner 'Key'. Showed that he's still in good form while attempting to circle a slow-paced race last time. Tanked in the LECOMTE Stakes two-back while drawing the rail-post, adding blinkers, and attempting to attend the pace. Enough on his resume to show he belongs. Today he'll make a big move and if the pace is stopping in the stretch be the one to capitalize.
#9 MY BOY JACK (5/2 ML FAVORITE) = Cool, handsome horse, will try to be this year's 'EXAGGERATOR'. Classy effort and a great mud ride last time by Kent J Desormeaux to close along the rail in the pace-collapse and win the SOUTHWEST Stakes. He's a danger to slip to co-favoritism with NOBLE INDY.
#10 DARK TEMPLAR (12/1) = Quality horse, has never proven himself at this class level, nor flashed especially brilliant talent. Won last race while controlling a slow pace. Versatile running style, can stalk or close.
Wager Strategy:
I will start with a 'double key' using both #8 LONE SAILOR and #2 NOBLE INDY in a superfecta;
1st+2nd = 2,8/2,8/all/all =$11.20
1st+3rd = 2,8/all/2,8/all
1st+4th = 2,8/all/all/2,8
2nd+3rd = all/2,8/2,8/all
2nd+4th = all/2,8/all/2,8
3rd+4th = all/all/2,8/2,8
$11.20 x 6 = $67.20
next, some suitable wagers for both keys;
dime super = 127/12679/all/*8* = $8.40
dime super = *2*/1679/all/*8* = $2.80
50cent tri = 127/12679/*8* = $6
50cent tri = *2*/1679/*8* = $2
$1 exacta = 12679/*8* = $5
$2 exacta = *2/8* = $2
$2 exacta = *2*/16789 =$10
$20 win on *#8* LONE SAILOR = $20
$2 exacta box = 8/4 = $4
= $60.20
TOTAL for all wagers = $127.40