Santa Anita Mandatory Pick 6 Payout. Pool should easily pass 5 million dollars

[cj]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I agree with CJ.

Pool Size cannibalizes the Carryover in general, but especially so in a chalky sequence.


I LOVE huge carryovers. They generally offer a potential for an opportunity. This specific was sequence did not.

It's still a parimutuel game.


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If there's a silver-lining(for serious multi-race bettors) with this specific recent 'jackpot', it's that EVERYBODY hit! ... Next time or two, it may be rewarding.

It really doesn't matter if the sequence was chalky or not. They paid out 79% of the pool, whether it was chalky or six longshots won.

My point about the huge carryovers is they aren't what they used to be. Even the 10,000,000 dollar carryovers at Gulfstream, which used to offer a positive expectation, have become near break even propositions and will probably not be much longer. Bettors are overdoing it IMO.

[cj]

Originally Posted by turfnsport

Sure they are popular, because many do not know they are betting into a wager with a 45+% takeout except on mandatory days. Tracks are selling ill informed customers a bill of goods. Much like the media plays up the Lotto.

They will continue to be popular for another year or two while they slowing erode customers bankrolls until they quit playing.

These bets are as dangerous as anything else wrong in the game right now.

It's really not that hard to see.

The Powerball and such is a positive expectation bet when the carryover gets to 600 million or so, we just aren't likely to live long enough to actually cash in on the odds. '

Similar to these pools, though, if five billionaires decided on the same day to bet every number at a cost of 584 million, and the pot was only bet to a billion, they'd lose a ton, as at least five tickets would hit and possibly more.

EDIT:

Boy, what a stupid post that was. If the five billionaires all bet 584 million obviously the pot would be much more than a billion. DOH!

In any case, there is still a solid chance they lose money and you can over bet the pools.

[ronsmac]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I play every mandatory payout day with 50K or more in the jackpot.

I've been vocal about not liking them and believing they're bad for the game. But here's the thing. There are more and more of them because the tracks make more money from them.

I told Ritvo I didn't like them. His job is to make as much money for the Stronach Group as possible. When you look at the results year over year from Laurel and Gulfstream it's hard to argue that he should eliminate the jackpot wagers.

My point to him is that handle on U.S. racing should be three times what it is and revenue should double. Before the Pacific Classic I met with him and M. Rogers about paying penny breakage on WPS and lowering exacta take to 17.5% and gave them a marketing plan to ensure success. That day they agreed to give it a try. Then crickets. Then this lawsuit.

If we are/were right about jackpot bets then why are they getting more popular? They aren't going away anytime soon unless enough of us boycott and knock handle down 25% or more. I'm up for it but there is nobody/no organization to lead.

Anyway this was my last shot at getting something done. The Stronach Group was the most likely to do it. I'd put the chances of them implementing my recommendations at about 5% and that's high.

You're knowledgeable of Socal. Do you believe Santa Anita will stay with the $0.20 Pick 6 when their winter meeting opens?

[JohnGalt1]

cj or other moderators--

Could you please post the Beyer video Talking jackpot bets with Ron Nocolleti as a permanent and separate location on this site so people can be reminded?