Santa Anita Mandatory Pick 6 Payout. Pool should easily pass 5 million dollars

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by AndyC

It would have paid about $492. Just a tad bit over an 18% premium.

Without a mandatory payout wouldn't most of the pool carryover to the jackpot? The fairs do it from meet to meet. Theoretically Santa Anita could hold it over till December 26th if they really wanted to. It would be a PR disaster.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

Pool size matters a lot. If it didn't then the experiment at Canterbury where they had P5 takeout at 12% but pools were 10K and they didn't grow during the meet. Same with some other small tracks with low takeout horizontals.

I'd rather play into a pool of 500K with 23.68% take than a 20K pool with 12% takeout.

I understand your point about the math but the reality is that most people want to be able to make a score of 20K -50k in those pools and that can't happen at certain low takeout venues.

I think your missing my point and the point Ronsmac was making. We were referring to yesterday's must-pay jackpot. Given the same winning horses and new money of only $3,000,000 the winning payoff would have been much higher. Less new money in the pool helps the payoff on days where the results are formful.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by AndyC

I think your missing my point and the point Ronsmac was making. We were referring to yesterday's must-pay jackpot. Given the same winning horses and new money of only $3,000,000 the winning payoff would have been much higher. Less new money in the pool helps the payoff on days where the results are formful.

Yes, I understand your point on the math. Once the new money passed that amount the effective takeout went up.

[cj]

Are these really great days to bet into these pools any longer? This is the best I can figure from news reports and the charts. There was a 1,143,194 carryover from Saturday. There was 6,745,114 of new money bet into the pool, for a total of 7,888,308.

According to Steve Anderson of DRF, there were 10,466 winning tickets that paid 601.10 each. Simple multiplication tells me that 6,291,112.60 was paid out. Only 79% of the total pool was paid out. Is that supposed to be a "value" bet?

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by cj

Are these really great days to bet into these pools any longer? This is the best I can figure from news reports and the charts. There was a 1,143,194 carryover from Saturday. There was 6,745,114 of new money bet into the pool, for a total of 7,888,308.

According to Steve Anderson of DRF, there were 10,466 winning tickets that paid 601.10 each. Simple multiplication tells me that 6,291,112.60 was paid out. Only 79% of the total pool was paid out. Is that supposed to be a "value" bet?

That's basically what everyone but Andy A. is saying. The only value in these bets is if you happen to be the one person who hits for a million bucks. Once every shark and whale out there is aware of the mandatory payoff, they're smart enough to crush all that value.

[cj]

Originally Posted by castaway01

That's basically what everyone but Andy A. is saying. The only value in these bets is if you happen to be the one person who hits for a million bucks. Once every shark and whale out there is aware of the mandatory payoff, they're smart enough to crush all that value.

The common theory has been that on mandatory payout days the carryover overcomes the takeout, or greatly reduces it. If the numbers I found are correct, that wasn't the case. People seem to be overbetting the pools on these days to the point of greatly reducing the carryover benefit. I've seen the same at Gulfstream on their massive carryover days, but not to this extent.

I now see I'm late to the party, sorry for not reading back far enough.

[Robert Fischer]

I agree with CJ.

Pool Size cannibalizes the Carryover in general, but especially so in a chalky sequence.


I LOVE huge carryovers. They generally offer a potential for an opportunity. This specific was sequence did not.

It's still a parimutuel game.


**
If there's a silver-lining(for serious multi-race bettors) with this specific recent 'jackpot', it's that EVERYBODY hit! ... Next time or two, it may be rewarding.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

I agree with CJ.

Pool Size cannibalizes the Carryover in general, but especially so in a chalky sequence.


I LOVE huge carryovers. They generally offer a potential for an opportunity. This specific was sequence did not.

It's still a parimutuel game.

When it looks chalky, and it did look chalky there's not rule against playing a small ticket 10 or 20 times. I'll take the massive pool any day. Kinda why Hong Kong is so successful.

[turfnsport]

Originally Posted by cj

Are these really great days to bet into these pools any longer? This is the best I can figure from news reports and the charts. There was a 1,143,194 carryover from Saturday. There was 6,745,114 of new money bet into the pool, for a total of 7,888,308.

According to Steve Anderson of DRF, there were 10,466 winning tickets that paid 601.10 each. Simple multiplication tells me that 6,291,112.60 was paid out. Only 79% of the total pool was paid out. Is that supposed to be a "value" bet?

The amount of money these jackpot bets take out of circulation is staggering. It is a churn killing sucker bet. These bets are and will continue to send ill informed horseplayers to the exits wondering where their bankroll went.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by turfnsport

The amount of money these jackpot bets take out of circulation is staggering. It is a churn killing sucker bet. These bets are and will continue to send ill informed horseplayers to the exits wondering where their bankroll went.

I agree with that but we're talking about mandatory payout days and massive pools on that day.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

When it looks chalky, and it did look chalky there's not rule against playing a small ticket 10 or 20 times. I'll take the massive pool any day. Kinda why Hong Kong is so successful.

No rule, but there's actually a 'law' against singling sequences of favorites in parimutuel wagering

I'll take a massive pool any day as well - It offers a potential opportunity.


It does not offer a free ride, long-term, vs. takeout

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

No rule, but there's actually a 'law' against singling sequences of favorites in parimutuel wagering

I'll take a massive pool any day as well - It offers a potential opportunity.


It does not offer a free ride, long-term, vs. takeout

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

Totally agree with the first point. Very hard for me to do it and lately the chalfests have been killing me. I did what I said for Sunday but singled the 11 horse in the 20k maiden race with the 6 length lead that got caught.

[turfnsport]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I agree with that but we're talking about mandatory payout days and massive pools on that day.

Keep supporting these bets and sooner rather than later every single minnow in the betting pool will be playing golf.

These bets will eventfully KILL the game.

Best of luck in the meantime.

[Andy Asaro]

Originally Posted by turfnsport

Keep supporting these bets and sooner rather than later every single minnow in the betting pool will be playing golf.

These bets will eventfully KILL the game.

Best of luck in the meantime.

I play every mandatory payout day with 50K or more in the jackpot.

I've been vocal about not liking them and believing they're bad for the game. But here's the thing. There are more and more of them because the tracks make more money from them.

I told Ritvo I didn't like them. His job is to make as much money for the Stronach Group as possible. When you look at the results year over year from Laurel and Gulfstream it's hard to argue that he should eliminate the jackpot wagers.

My point to him is that handle on U.S. racing should be three times what it is and revenue should double. Before the Pacific Classic I met with him and M. Rogers about paying penny breakage on WPS and lowering exacta take to 17.5% and gave them a marketing plan to ensure success. That day they agreed to give it a try. Then crickets. Then this lawsuit.

If we are/were right about jackpot bets then why are they getting more popular? They aren't going away anytime soon unless enough of us boycott and knock handle down 25% or more. I'm up for it but there is nobody/no organization to lead.

Anyway this was my last shot at getting something done. The Stronach Group was the most likely to do it. I'd put the chances of them implementing my recommendations at about 5% and that's high.

[turfnsport]

Originally Posted by Andy Asaro

I play every mandatory payout day with 50K or more in the jackpot.

I've been vocal about not liking them and believing they're bad for the game. But here's the thing. There are more and more of them because the tracks make more money from them.

I told Ritvo I didn't like them. His job is to make as much money for the Stronach Group as possible. When you look at the results year over year from Laurel and Gulfstream it's hard to argue that he should eliminate the jackpot wagers.

My point to him is that handle on U.S. racing should be three times what it is and revenue should double. Before the Pacific Classic I met with him and M. Rogers about paying penny breakage on WPS and lowering exacta take to 17.5% and gave them a marketing plan to ensure success. That day they agreed to give it a try. Then crickets. Then this lawsuit.

If we are/were right about jackpot bets then why are they getting more popular? They aren't going away anytime soon unless enough of us boycott and knock handle down 25% or more. I'm up for it but there is nobody/no organization to lead.

Anyway this was my last shot at getting something done. The Stronach Group was the most likely to do it. I'd put the chances of them implementing my recommendations at about 5% and that's high.

Sure they are popular, because many do not know they are betting into a wager with a 45+% takeout except on mandatory days. Tracks are selling ill informed customers a bill of goods. Much like the media plays up the Lotto.

They will continue to be popular for another year or two while they slowing erode customers bankrolls until they quit playing.

These bets are as dangerous as anything else wrong in the game right now.

It's really not that hard to see.