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Old 12-05-2022, 10:19 PM   #1
timtam
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Playing 2-4 horses per race

I have handicapping material dating the 1950's and I notice many methods

where the writer advocates playing flat bet races in large fields using 2 to 4

horses. Its not dutching because its using a flat bet approach rather than

adjusting for the odds. Do you think its pertinent to use this approach in this

age of computers and automatic wagering? David Barr used a method called

How Dutching Can Build A Bankroll Faster from Making Money at the Races.

I'm asking does anyone play more than 2 horses in certain races today

and how do you handle the wagering? Strict dutching could become quite

expensive.
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Old 12-05-2022, 10:48 PM   #2
lefty359
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I use 2 horses a lot, but I don't flat bet I use a progression that I created.
If you have a big enough BR you could prob use 4 horses.
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Old 12-05-2022, 10:49 PM   #3
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I think OTBs and internet wagering with massive late odd changes would make such a thing a loser in today's game. Also remember the limited exotic wagering back in that day, there are better options now.
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Old 12-05-2022, 11:04 PM   #4
timtam
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lefty359 View Post
I use 2 horses a lot, but I don't flat bet I use a progression that I created.
If you have a big enough BR you could prob use 4 horses.
Do you use a due column approach or a percentage of bankroll? I use goal

per hit for only two horses many 3 in big fields and good odds. Thanks for

responding.
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Old 12-05-2022, 11:24 PM   #5
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when those books were written the takeout was less than 10% and there were a million bookmakers running around that you could bet with and the money never hit the mutual pools. today betting on 4 horses in a race is a fast path to going broke.
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Old 12-05-2022, 11:29 PM   #6
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My favorite situation is betting two horses to win and boxing the exacta. Of course if I like one horse a lot, Iíll just key that one, but sometimes I dislike the favorite and have no strong opinion on win. In that situation betting two horses I think are good value is fine.
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Old 12-06-2022, 12:00 AM   #7
castaway01
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt View Post
I think OTBs and internet wagering with massive late odd changes would make such a thing a loser in today's game. Also remember the limited exotic wagering back in that day, there are better options now.
Agreed. It's tough to see a way past these issues. How do you know the final odds well enough to weigh your wagers accordingly when all the money comes in in the final minute?

I know it's possible to tell to some extent from probable payoffs when a horse's odds will drop or rise near post time, but anyone who is good enough to predict the odds and (more importantly) also know which longshots will win is more gifted than 99.9% of us.
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Old 12-06-2022, 03:01 PM   #8
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Timtam, My approach is along the lines of a due column but safer than a
regular due column with many safeguards.
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Old 12-06-2022, 03:43 PM   #9
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There are so many short fields in today's game...even betting 1 horse per race may be a stretch.
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Old 12-06-2022, 07:00 PM   #10
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It can be a good strategy in a large field with a bet against favorite. I remember one race with about 9 horses and a heavy favorite where one could bet all to win and make a profit when the fav lost. lol

Also, if you think the pace sets up for longshots, that can be a good situation for multi-horse wagers.
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Old 12-06-2022, 07:30 PM   #11
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It can be a good strategy in a large field with a bet against favorite. I remember one race with about 9 horses and a heavy favorite where one could bet all to win and make a profit when the fav lost. lol

Also, if you think the pace sets up for longshots, that can be a good situation for multi-horse wagers.
That's one of situations I'll bet more than one. If I'm projecting a pace meltdown between some of the shorter priced horses, even if I am right, I'm not always right about which of the closers will take advantage and jump up.
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Old 12-06-2022, 08:24 PM   #12
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the only way you can possibly make this work is by having an excellent method for throwing big favorites out
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Old 12-06-2022, 09:58 PM   #13
timtam
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I appreciate all of your comments and I do a few things in certain races. In my

original post i think 4 horses was a bit of a stretch. I do agree that with the

countless short fields it is a stretch it even bet the race. I kind of like the

modified due column when betting two horses and may look into that aspect.

My work days are coming to an end at the end of 2022 and I want a controlled

approach because I still love horse racing and usually play at an OTB in the

Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania. Its part of the Mohegan Sun chain. Thanks

again for the input and I hope I'm not working in my real job in Feb 2023

because I such at handicapping.
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Old 12-07-2022, 01:27 PM   #14
JohnGalt1
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I spoke with the creator of the Bris pp generator, and he told me he bets up to 3 horses per race if high enough odds.

I bet 2 horses about 60% of the time if the odds total about 8. I bet either 50-50 or 60% on my top selection and 40% on my second selection.

So, 6-1 and 2-1 can be a bet. 7-2 and 5-2 no bet.
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Old 12-07-2022, 09:17 PM   #15
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Some valid points have been raised but as usual only a few have addressed the issue of when and when not to play more than 1 horse in a race. (And BTW being profitable has absolutely nothing to do with whatever the take-out % might be.)

The key to successfully using an approach that involves betting 2 or 3 horses to win in a race simply requires the following:

1) Only play those tracks where the handles are large. This more often than not reduces the late money impact on the Win pool odds fluctuation.

2) Only play races with large fields. Unless the odds are sufficient, use only 2 entries with 8 or 9 entries and up to 3 in fields of 10 or more.

3) Establish your actual Hit frequency %. Once this is known only play a race when profit margin % meets or exceeds your Hit frequency %.

4) Use a quick and accurate method of determining the potential profit margin %. A Dutching calculator comes in very handy.

5) Try to establish a play (or not) by 3 mins to post.

Iím sure many are now quibbling about these basic rules because in general, racing in the U.S. will certainly limit the number of possible plays. Thatís why I prefer to play the racing in Hong Kong. Thereís never an issue when conforming to rules 1 and 2.

As a side note concerning the betting of more than 1 entry to win in a race, I have a good friend who only plays certain big races during year. Each year for the KY Derby he picks only 5 big long shots from the field and puts $50 to win on each one. Since Iíve known him heís done pretty well.
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