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Old 10-11-2022, 10:07 PM   #1
usedtolovetvg
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Time To Investigate

I am getting so tired of the odds changing well after the horses leave the gate. I haven't posted for a while but I just made a big bet on the 1 at MNR race 5. Leaving the gate the horse broke on top and the odds dropped to 3-1 from 7-2. OK, I can accept that. Turning for home the horse open up by 5 and miraculously the horse dropped from 3-1 to 6/5. I have seen this happen at many of the smaller tracks but MNR is the worst offender.

The bigger problem I'm seeing now is that the same shit is happening at NYRA and SoCal tracks. I think it is time for the feds to look into this and see wtf is going on. I am not a huge punter but this kind of activity is driving me away from the sport I love.
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Old 10-11-2022, 10:27 PM   #2
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The bigger problem I'm seeing now is that the same shit is happening at NYRA .
Please, tell me when you last saw this happen at NYRA.
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Old 10-11-2022, 10:37 PM   #3
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The total win pool ended up with $17,500.
#1 ended up with $6,260 of the win pool.
If you made a BIG BET into that small of a pool, then it was you that changed the odds.
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:13 PM   #4
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Originally Posted by usedtolovetvg View Post
I am getting so tired of the odds changing well after the horses leave the gate. I haven't posted for a while but I just made a big bet on the 1 at MNR race 5. Leaving the gate the horse broke on top and the odds dropped to 3-1 from 7-2. OK, I can accept that. Turning for home the horse open up by 5 and miraculously the horse dropped from 3-1 to 6/5. I have seen this happen at many of the smaller tracks but MNR is the worst offender.

The bigger problem I'm seeing now is that the same shit is happening at NYRA and SoCal tracks. I think it is time for the feds to look into this and see wtf is going on. I am not a huge punter but this kind of activity is driving me away from the sport I love.
cant bet that track for the very reason you said. If you had solid handicapping and come up with a horse who is underbet its likely going to change by the time the hit the half.

I gotta stick to bigger tracks just for that reason.
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:16 PM   #5
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For me $50 is a bet. Don't think that would knock the odds down from 3-1 to 6/5. Where's the printout of the time bet?
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:21 PM   #6
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cant bet that track for the very reason you said. If you had solid handicapping and come up with a horse who is underbet its likely going to change by the time the hit the half.

I gotta stick to bigger tracks just for that reason.
Thank you! The other responses were the very reason I don't come here often.
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:29 PM   #7
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Thank you! The other responses were the very reason I don't come here often.
This hasn't happened at NYRA in over a year. The bad person in this thread is you.
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Old 10-11-2022, 11:43 PM   #8
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oh, but it has happened at NYRA, even according to you.
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Old 10-12-2022, 10:03 AM   #9
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I am getting so tired of the odds changing well after the horses leave the gate.
It's mostly related to computer assisted wagering that occurs very late. We know that because the tendency is for that very late win money to bring the win pool in line with the other exotic pools and not out of line.

To its credit, NYRA has done some things to reduce that kind of late action.

Still, the bigger issue is that it demonstrates that the computer players are massively better than the average of all other horseplayers otherwise the pools would be accurate before their late money came in. That's what the rest of us are up against now. We used to be competing with the bettors at OTB betting names, numbers, jockeys, trainers, and public handicapper picks. Now we are competing with math wizzes and database handicappers. So the chances of finding a real overlay in any given race are much reduced. The tougher the game, the tougher to attract new money.

Also, call me overly cynical, but I'm not convinced that explains it all. It's too big a project for me. I don't have time or data to study it. But the very best hackers can bust through the security of major corporations and even governments with huge resources dedicated to protecting their data and communications. Racing is a technically backwards industry. It just can't be that hard. No one within racing seems to want to study the issue properly. Maybe that's because of the damage that would be done if it was determined that it was likely someone has the ability to past post and does it just infrequently enough to not make it obvious, unlike the bozos that got caught in the past.
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Old 10-12-2022, 10:15 AM   #10
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Please, tell me when you last saw this happen at NYRA.
One of the major reasons that I concentrate my play on NYRA tracks. That, and it also happens to be the best racing in the country.

Parx (among others...like Horseshoe Indy) is one track where the odds plummet on some runners very late in the betting. I quit betting that track because of it.
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Old 10-12-2022, 11:22 AM   #11
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oh, but it has happened at NYRA, even according to you.
NYRA got rid of the CAW in the straight mutuel pools. they are really good, and they have five-cent breakage as well.

you get a good shake from NYRA now in the win pools.
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Old 10-12-2022, 12:10 PM   #12
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I am getting so tired of the odds changing well after the horses leave the gate. I haven't posted for a while but I just made a big bet on the 1 at MNR race 5. Leaving the gate the horse broke on top and the odds dropped to 3-1 from 7-2. OK, I can accept that. Turning for home the horse open up by 5 and miraculously the horse dropped from 3-1 to 6/5. I have seen this happen at many of the smaller tracks but MNR is the worst offender.

The bigger problem I'm seeing now is that the same shit is happening at NYRA and SoCal tracks. I think it is time for the feds to look into this and see wtf is going on. I am not a huge punter but this kind of activity is driving me away from the sport I love.
I was surprised the winner went that low. Admittedly though, I just made a bad line on the race. And did not distinguish myself with the pre-race analysis.

With respect to your overall point, sir, the late money can usually be predicted at mnr, and almost always conforms to obvious logic. Sometimes, players (mostly less informed than yourself, I'm sure) prefer to flatter themselves that their observations are unique, when in fact a late pile-on in the win pool looms inevitable. I constantly advise players that a knack for anticipating late money is critical to beating mnr's win pool. And I am sure this is increasingly the case at other tracks, as well.

An notable exception occurs with foreign money. It is generally dumb.

Last edited by mountainman; 10-12-2022 at 12:14 PM.
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Old 10-12-2022, 08:49 PM   #13
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Nothing against the racing itself at Mountaineer but I wouldn't bother with tracks that don't offer rolling doubles. Analysis of the final DD probables matrix will typically give you all of the stability you need for betting to win and coming out ahead when you set a 50% overlay as a minimum odds requirement. You could stick to NYRA and literally be + or - a single tick in final odds 20 minutes before a race starts, so not many excuses can be made by players there with respect to this issue. In my mind it's addressed, I do wish they would display those odds someplace after each race though so I wouldn't have to have a spreadsheet on my person whenever I think about wanting place a bet. Every track should be implementing rolling doubles as mitigation against this IMO.
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Old 10-12-2022, 09:29 PM   #14
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oh, but it has happened at NYRA, even according to you.
My friend listen to the little guy he knows everything NYRA Racing is honest 🤣😂
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Old 10-12-2022, 09:49 PM   #15
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My friend listen to the little guy he knows everything NYRA Racing is honest ����
To be fair when something like this did happen at NYRA I recall Andy was the one who brought it to the board's attention. Have to give credit where it's due. Maybe it has happened many times since then but I would have to say based upon that particular instance he isn't about sweeping things under the rug.
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